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Thread: Smooth bet question ramping

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    I'd rather he didn't!

    Just imagine scenarios where you're not moving your bet, almost ever. One such scenario is only playing positive counts. There are other such scenarios.
    refinery, I'm as intrigued by your response as by Stealth's original post. Are you saying you don't want him revealing other tactics because that might spoil opportunities that only a small handful of people know about (ie. clue in any casino folk trolling this forum)?

  2. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    As a reminder, most people are in the OSN, etc for moving their money with the count. If you have a bankroll that will allow flat betting in positive counts you will survive much longer.

    Otherwise, work on ways to obfuscate your betting.......

    Fewer bet increments = better longevity
    Spoken like a true pro...problem is that 98+% of folks here are part-timers...just sayin

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by smalltowngirl View Post
    refinery, I'm as intrigued by your response as by Stealth's original post. Are you saying you don't want him revealing other tactics because that might spoil opportunities that only a small handful of people know about (ie. clue in any casino folk trolling this forum)?
    He is saying get a bigger bankroll. If you can flat bet more...not move your money with the count...then it has many advantages.
    Do you see a lot of ploppies moving from say $10 to $200 or $25 to $500 very often? Just think a little.
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 08-27-2019 at 10:45 PM.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by smalltowngirl View Post
    Stealth, can you clarify what you mean by that?

    Let's imagine that your stated tolerance i s .5% RoR but the size of your bankroll allows you to play any bet size you might desire without reducing your RoR to less than your stated .5%. For example, I have a 1,000,000 bankroll and can flat bet $1,000 any time without putting my RoR at exposure.

    Many teams have this situation.

    Flat betting removes one of the key issues of moving your bet with the count, espically if you are called in at TC+2 or higher and no other bet is allowed.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #31


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    [QUOTE=RTR2021;274091]With 85% pen, your ramp seems too aggressive. Have you run the game through CV to determine what's optimal?[/QU

    If your game truly has 85% pen...then I would say your spread is not aggressive enough ?
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 08-27-2019 at 11:01 PM.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    Spoken like a true pro...problem is that 98+% of folks here are part-timers...just sayin
    So what!

    You do not need to be a "pro" to understand the concept and its effect. Work on ways to obfuscate your betting!!!!

    You spent all this energy learning how to be technically proficient, now spend the time to learn how to win!

    I am well aware that few have bankrolls sufficient to implement flat betting at large numbers, however, the concept is valid and you should expand your awareness to include how you might improve.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  7. #33


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    [QUOTE=Counting_Is_Fun;274443]
    Quote Originally Posted by RTR2021 View Post
    With 85% pen, your ramp seems too aggressive. Have you run the game through CV to determine what's optimal?[/QU

    If your game truly has 85% pen...then I would say your spread is not aggressive enough ?
    I have a couple reason for my weaker spread. The first being I'm just trying get seasoning and learn at a smallish place with minimal BR volatility. I'm hoping one day I'll stumble upon these almost mythical "other AP opportunities" I always hear about on GWE so when I can play a serious game, I can improve my advantage. More importantly I'm not adequately bankrolled to play some 1 - 16 spread.

    10k isn't squat if wanting to play at a strong hourly rate with a min RoR. After hanging around the forum, I think what is an adequate bankroll is seriously misunderstood by newer people like me. Think about this, my worst session I dropped near 20 max bets over a 4 hour period. If spreading 1 -16 with 10k BR this is a damn near 33% BR drop in one session! This happens all the time to people. Then they post on here, "Help! I'm way down after 20 hours. I always start to lose when I start max betting" Then the pros chime in "20 hours isn't nothing, try losing for over a 100 hours. You don't understand! Study more!" I noticed this repeated cycle of banter going on way back digging through old posts.

    One of the few things I'm certain about is that if you want that nice simmed out $50 - $80 hour win rate with a min RoR, you best have some real dough for a bankroll. Otherwise, when that ugly variance comes knocking on your door, you're not going to be able to answer and maintain composure.

    I think it's funny when people run these sims showing an big hourly win rate with something like 20k BR and a 33% RoR. 33% actually doesn't sound to horrible, hell you'll succeed 2 out of 3 times. But.. what people fail to realize is that the sim has no emotion, so when the bankroll drops 60% it will just compute away max betting according to schedule. Most people would hit panic mode after taking a 60% bankroll drop. Was either Norm, Carlson, or Snyder who explained this can't remember who at the moment.
    Last edited by UncleChoo; 08-28-2019 at 06:18 AM.

  8. #34


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    [QUOTE=UncleChoo;274459]
    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post

    I have a couple reason for my weaker spread. The first being I'm just trying get seasoning and learn at a smallish place with minimal BR volatility. I'm hoping one day I'll stumble upon these almost mythical "other AP opportunities" I always hear about on GWE so when I can play a serious game, I can improve my advantage. More importantly I'm not adequately bankrolled to play some 1 - 16 spread.

    10k isn't squat if wanting to play at a strong hourly rate with a min RoR. After hanging around the forum, I think what is an adequate bankroll is seriously misunderstood by newer people like me. Think about this, my worst session I dropped near 20 max bets over a 4 hour period. If spreading 1 -16 with 10k BR this is a damn near 33% BR drop in one session! This happens all the time to people. Then they post on here, "Help! I'm way down after 20 hours. I always start to lose when I start max betting" Then the pros chime in "20 hours isn't nothing, try losing for over a 100 hours. You don't understand! Study more!" I noticed this repeated cycle of banter going on way back digging through old posts.

    One of the few things I'm certain about is that if you want that nice simmed out $50 - $80 hour win rate with a min RoR, you best have some real dough for a bankroll. Otherwise, when that ugly variance comes knocking on your door, you're not going to be able to answer and maintain composure.

    I think it's funny when people run these sims showing an big hourly win rate with something like 20k BR and a 33% RoR. 33% actually doesn't sound to horrible, hell you'll succeed 2 out of 3 times. But.. what people fail to realize is that the sim has no emotion, so when the bankroll drops 60% it will just compute away max betting according to schedule. Most people would hit panic mode after taking a 60% bankroll drop. Was either Norm, Carlson, or Snyder who explained this can't remember who at the moment.
    Well spoken; I recognize many of your thoughts. For instance, I have a problem using the gigantic bet spread of 1:15 or even 1:20 as advertised in REKO for 6 and 8 decks. Most literature recommends 1:10 and I considered 1:5 (not 1:8) for double deck, 1:10 for 6 decks and 1:12 for 8 decks, for RoR as well as for heat concerns.

  9. #35


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    [QUOTE=PinkChip;274479]
    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post

    Well spoken; I recognize many of your thoughts. For instance, I have a problem using the gigantic bet spread of 1:15 or even 1:20 as advertised in REKO for 6 and 8 decks. Most literature recommends 1:10 and I considered 1:5 (not 1:8) for double deck, 1:10 for 6 decks and 1:12 for 8 decks, for RoR as well as for heat concerns.
    ^^^ Pinkchip...why are you quoting here and attempting to make it look like this quote is from me ? It most definitely is not.

  10. #36


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    Pardon me? As you can clearly see above, I quoted UncleChoo ([QUOTE=UncleChoo;274459]), who made the statements in posting #33, and not you. Maybe something went wrong in the editor since I was typing on a smartphone. It seems to me that UncleChoo had a (nested) quote of you, which my quote requoted. No intention at all.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 09-04-2019 at 04:44 AM.

  11. #37


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    [QUOTE=PinkChip;274972]Pardon me? As you can clearly see above, I quoted UncleChoo (
    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post
    ), who made the statements in posting #33, and not you. Maybe something went wrong in the editor (nestied quotes or s.th.) since I was typing on a smartphone.
    Not to worry. Countingisfun thinks his shit doesn’t think. Sooner or later, he will understand the error if his conclusions.

  12. #38


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    Counting just is not fun! Yesterday, with a TC of +6, on the last round of a $15 minimum deeply dealt 6 deck game, sitting on 3rd base of a 4 person table, placed 2 hands of $125 (all the chips in front of me) with a steaming act, saying I am late for an event. Get a 20 and an 18, dealer has a 10 up, breathe a sigh of relief when she had a 2 under, then she gets 4 Aces in a row, hits it with a 5. A win into a loss. I hate it these days.

  13. #39


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    Sounds like super Murphy to the 5th power...

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