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Thread: Average real bet including doubles and splits

  1. #1


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    Average real bet including doubles and splits

    I am trying to calculate the average money waged over a time period. However I am having trouble because if you wage lets say 25$ each hand, your average bet will be higher than that when factoring doubles and splits. Do any of you happen to know how much that would be on average? I might add that I'm looking for a game that is double any 2, double after split allowed, split aces receive 1 card. For now I was thinking about 32$ but thats just a guestimate.

    thanks.

  2. #2


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    You would need to find the frequency of which doubles and splits occur, then multiply that by how many hands per hour you are playing, and multiply that by your base bet.

  3. #3


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    Yes I am aware of that, however I was wondering if this as already been documented multiple times.

  4. #4


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    I read in some of my books (maybe Stanford Wong, Professional Blackjack) that a rule of thumb is that your average wager is twice your initial bet (provided that you flat bet and play basic strategy. Or was it 2 min bets when counting?). So if you initially bet 25, you bet 50 on average due to doubles splits etc. But I'm not certain about this anymore.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-17-2019 at 11:08 AM.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    I read in some of my books (maybe Stanford Wong, Professional Blackjack) that a rule of thumb is that your average wager is twice your initial bet (provided that you flat bet and play basic strategy. Or was it 2 min bets when counting?). So if you initially bet 25, you bet 50 on average due to doubles splits etc. But I'm not certain about this anymore.
    This seems way too high for someone playing BS. seems more accurate for someone couting.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    This seems way too high for someone playing BS. seems more accurate for someone couting.
    100%

  7. #7


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    Agreed, 2x your flat bet is way too high. You aren't doubling or splitting every hand, and even the hands where you do split, you probably aren't splitting and doubling every time.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    I am trying to calculate the average money waged over a time period. However I am having trouble because if you wage lets say 25$ each hand, your average bet will be higher than that when factoring doubles and splits. Do any of you happen to know how much that would be on average? I might add that I'm looking for a game that is double any 2, double after split allowed, split aces receive 1 card. For now I was thinking about 32$ but thats just a guestimate.

    thanks.
    Counting? On initial bet, Try 4-5X your off the top bet.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    I am trying to calculate the average money waged over a time period. However I am having trouble because if you wage lets say 25$ each hand, your average bet will be higher than that when factoring doubles and splits. Do any of you happen to know how much that would be on average? I might add that I'm looking for a game that is double any 2, double after split allowed, split aces receive 1 card. For now I was thinking about 32$ but that's just a guesstimate.

    thanks.
    Sorry I didn't see this till now and that you got so many wrong answers above. The answer is 1.13 times the initial wager. So, your $32 is a bit too high. We double about 10% of the time and split about 3%.

    Don

  10. #10


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    OK, 1.13 sounds realistic for the average wager when flat-betting.

    But is this number coincidentally the same as the 1.1 you mention as standard deviation in BJA3, page 16
    (std dev = 1.1 times square root of N, where N ist the number of played hands)?
    On the other hand, 1.13 is the average bet, but average is not the same as standard deviation.

    [I just looked up pages 18-20 in Stanford Wong's "Professional Blackjack" mentioned above.
    He has a benchmark: 6 decks with some rules and High-Low count using a spread of 1:10, from 10 to 100 dollars.
    For this benchmark, Wong gives a win rate (= EV) of 16 dollars and a standard deviation of a
    whopping 415 dollars, which means 41.5 units (min bets). The average initial bet is 26.54 dollars then,
    thus 2.654 times the minimum bet, not only 1.13, due to the increased bets for positive counts].

  11. #11


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    CVCX will show your average bet. I just looked at a double deck sim with $10 to $100 spread and the average bet is coming in at $26.92 with 60% pen.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    CVCX will show your average bet. I just looked at a double deck sim with $10 to $100 spread and the average bet is coming in at $26.92 with 60% pen.
    And for a 6 deck shoe? Quote various spreads.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    And for a 6 deck shoe? Quote various spreads.
    Halves Count Six Deck Shoe $27.23 Average Bet with $10 to $160 spread. With $10 to $120 spread $24.85.

    6 deck Halves Count 8-17-19.JPG

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