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Thread: Expected value

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    And I'll add 6. You're tired and realize your skills are not up to what they need to be. Get some rest.

    EV
    An absolute must. On out of town trips with multiple play sites, I’ll pick a hotel with easy access to all stores, where, if necessary (and it usually is), to go for a mid afternoon or early evening nap.

    I’ll qualify “tired”, as being 2 types of tired, one if which can be played through in a matter of minutes, and the other where I absolutely know that my play will know longer be my A game.

    Know your body, and understand levels of fatigue.

  2. #15


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    Thank you all, I’ve broke my session into breaks and see an immediate and significant difference. As well as playing with less people at the table! Knowing losing max bets consecutively is part of the game was an important lesson for me!

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by nighterfighter View Post
    This is not directed at you, just a message for anyone new who might be reading this:

    Each HAND of blackjack is NOT an independent trial. (That is why card counting works, because you're keeping track of the previous cards that have come out), but each new shoe (aka after every shuffle) IS independent from the previous shoe. That is not to say that "because I lost the last three hands, I'm due for a win", however.

    Again, not directed at you 21forme (or anyone else in this thread). Just wanted it to be clear that blackjack is different from roulette on a per-hand/spin basis.
    You’re completely right. What I think he meant was that a true four bet is independent from the next true four bet. A reason why I won big fast (relatively speaking) and why I lost big fast while still playing in my same optimal counts

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    I don't have a list per se, but your list is reasonable. Regarding #4, understand that the reason to stop is not to "lock in a win," but to deflect attention or heat, if you so desire. Some people play until backed off. Others try to preserve longevity. Re #5, that, too, is not a reason to stop, unless your depleted bankroll prevents you from spreading as you need to, or your mental state is simply shot to the point you can no longer play well.

    And I'll add 6. You're tired and realize your skills are not up to what they need to be. Get some rest.

    And for the newbies out there, don't make the mistake of playing rated when you first start. The last thing you want to do is burn out your name before you build an adequate bankroll to really make some EV
    I've done f'd this up.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    As far as small investors go, some want to invest in a term length and others want to invest on longer terms. At one brokerage, I bought a CD for one year and now, the year is at end and I want my money plus the 2.60 APY back but the brokerage guy is reluctant to return my money, wants it for a longer term. That is unethical.

    Hope you discuss before you accept an investor, how long you would want their money, what return you will provide them at minimum and maybe if you promise a greater return for more time, he might keep it going. However, he has the right.
    Zee, never heard of such a thing. What the hell is the name of this brokerage firm anyway. As soon as a CD matures at a brokerage firm the proceeds should be immediately deposited in a money market account or a cash account that is earning interest at the brokerage. In this environment with an inverted yield curve and taking your age into consideration I wouldn't invest in anything longer than a 2 year CD.

    The broker might recommend a longer term investment. You are under no obligation to do so. I have money in two different brokerage accounts and both are linked to my checking account. I can move money in and out anytime I want. In fact money market accounts are paying more than a one year CD or even a two year CD right now. Schwab's money account (SWVXX) as of 8/16/19 had a seven day yield of 2%.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    And for the newbies out there, don't make the mistake of playing rated when you first start. The last thing you want to do is burn out your name before you build an adequate bankroll to really make some EV
    I have a lots of questions to this, because I have no US casino experience, so how does this "playing rated" stuff actually work?
    In Europe, I must show an official ID (like passport or driving licence) and pay a fee when entering a casino. And there is nothing like "comps".

    1.) In the US, you can just walk into any casino, buy in and sit down at any table?
    2.) Do they check if someone is aged 18 or 21 when he looks young? (But I'm anyway clearly older).
    3.) Do you get asked by the pit boss if you want to get rated?
    4.) Is it required to play rated in order to get comps?
    5.) Do all APs refuse to play rated (I have read so many BJ books but every author seems to have a different answer to this)?
    6.) Is it suspicious to refuse to play rated?
    7.) Is it possible to play rated with a false name?
    (In the movie "21", they show a driving license with a false name "Vladimir Stubnycki", but I guess it is illegal and difficult to create a false official document like driving license?)
    8.) Does it make sense to stay in a hotel-casino, playing rated there in order to get comped, but to play unrated in other casinos?
    9.) How does the pit actually track how much you have bet, in order to compute your comp level? Do they just coarsely estimate this?
    (because they usually have no MindPlay table tracking all your bets to the last cent).

  7. #20


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    Poor PinkChip. You remind me of the Twilight Zone episode where all the guy wants to do is be left alone and read. He finally gets his chance but breaks his glasses. Hence for you, not a beatable game around.

  8. #21


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    Here PinkChip, I'll take a stab. I'm sure I'll answer one of these wrong by a technicality and someones going to call me out, but here it goes:
    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    I have a lots of questions to this, because I have no US casino experience, so how does this "playing rated" stuff actually work?
    In Europe, I must show an official ID (like passport or driving licence) and pay a fee when entering a casino. And there is nothing like "comps".

    1.) In the US, you can just walk into any casino, buy in and sit down at any table?
    That's about it.
    2.) Do they check if someone is aged 18 or 21 when he looks young? (But I'm anyway clearly older).
    Sure do.
    3.) Do you get asked by the pit boss if you want to get rated?
    They say "Player Card?"
    4.) Is it required to play rated in order to get comps?
    I believe so.
    5.) Do all APs refuse to play rated (I have read so many BJ books but every author seems to have a different answer to this)?
    I think not. I think some AP's consider the comps off play as a bonus. Of course some probably cringe at the thought of using a players card.
    6.) Is it suspicious to refuse to play rated?
    I'l leave this one for one of the experts, as I 'd be flipping a coin as far as how to answer.
    7.) Is it possible to play rated with a false name?
    See answer to #8.
    (In the movie "21", they show a driving license with a false name "Vladimir Stubnycki", but I guess it is illegal and difficult to create a false official document like driving license?)
    I think the day's of fake ID's are gone for the younger folk. Now day's DL's have electronic barcodes and the Casino can scan this code and check databases. I'm sure if there's a will anything is possible though.
    8.) Does it make sense to stay in a hotel-casino, playing rated there in order to get comped, but to play unrated in other casinos?
    Sure, I guess...
    9.) How does the pit actually track how much you have bet, in order to compute your comp level? Do they just coarsely estimate this?
    My experience is limited here. They know what I buy in with, and then get the total of what I leave with when the dealer say's "Color up.. XXX amount going out"
    (because they usually have no MindPlay table tracking all your bets to the last cent).
    I really think you're over thinking things. Find you a beatable game and go kill it.

  9. #22


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    Thanks for your answer! Well, many people who know me say I'm thinking and considering too much... But I have read dozens of BJ books with thousands of pages, with so many partially conflicting advices, that my head is already rotating... and I want to prepare as good as possible and to minimize the influence of random. Hey, that's the nature of the beast, ehm, game, isn't it? :-)

  10. #23


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    Uncle Choo did a nice job answering your questions. I'll comment on a few.

    I've been to European casinos. The entry process is very different here. Every Euro casino I've entered, they've asked for my passport at the door. I recall one time (Vienna), I left it in the hotel safe, so I showed them my Driver's License. That wasn't acceptable. In the US, just walk in. An exception to that is in the midwest. Many midwest casinos have a security booth at entry. If you're 40+ and don't look unusually young, they just wave you through. if you're young, they check ID.

    #4. Usually, but not always. I've had an occasional pit boss offer me a meal comp, even though I was playing unrated.

    #6. If you are playing high stakes (black chip or greater), it's suspicious. Lower stakes, especially on the Vegas Strip, no big deal. Some places in Vegas won't even rate you if you're betting less than green.

    #8. If you play rated, just for comps, obviously you can't play a big spread for long or you'll get tossed. The cost of playing a break-even game for several hours, just to get a room may cost you more than playing unrated and paying for your room (and don't stay where you play). Some people want the free stuff, even if it's costing EV. Others don't.

  11. #24


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    Many thanks, I can only second those experiences regarding complex entry procedure in Europe.
    (Another of my casino visits was in 2008 in Venice at Canale Grande. This house was a "Palazzo" and their behaviour extremely aristocratic and stiff,
    so that I even had to lend a vest at the cloak room. I tried a bit roulette back then but just was starting with blackjack interest, so I played only one hand against a CSM, which I luckily won. This was my first ever live casino blackjack hand).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-17-2019 at 05:42 PM.

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    And for the newbies out there, don't make the mistake of playing rated when you first start. The last thing you want to do is burn out your name before you build an adequate bankroll to really make some EV
    I think most of the top notch players here would agree with 21forme's statement. Players such as bigplayer, Ryemo, Frightman, RCJH, and others have advised against playing rated. However, most of these players are pro or semi pro where their playing stakes are big enough to get noticed and stand out.

    I do think a case can be made for playing rated especially if you only intend to continue to play for small stakes. Most of the time I play rated especially at casinos where I'm well known. Playing rated at a place where you are well known makes little difference since they know you either way. Players comps are nothing to be sneezed at even at the red chip level. They cover most of my trip expenses. The biggest threat to playing rated I would imagine is being put in a data base. I have been backed off playing rated, but some would have made no difference either way once you are well known. For other casinos just go back and play unrated if you got a back off playing rated. At the red chip level you can get away with a lot of things. I do like to save a few casinos that I never play rated at.
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 08-17-2019 at 11:13 PM.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I think most of the top notch players here would agree with 21forme's statement. Players such as bigplayer, Ryemo, Frightman, RCJH, and others have advised against playing rated.
    On a relatively recent barring, I was shown a picture of myself on a bolo from another store (likely from OSN) with among other items, stated - identity unknown.

    I’m sure they're are standardized search factors when the store is trying to get info, but playing rated would very dumb for me, regardless of the fact that I’m tracked where I’m known. I recall earlier this year, a security goon said I could get free meals playing rated. I was playing a $50 min DD game at the time, commenting - do you really think I give a shit about a free meal.

    I’ve been backed off in Vegas during my red chip days, but I’m certain I was never reported. I always pay for hotels when travelling, and accept meal comps only in those locations which don’t require a rating card.

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