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Thread: Expected value

  1. #1


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    Expected value

    Disclaimer, not the ap captainjack. This is my last post on this account. Apologies to the ap captainjack

    I’m trying to explain to a small investor in my bankroll a losing session he attended with me. Calculated using cvcx, my ev is 25/hour. After being up a quick 715 in first half hour of playing tonight, I played another 3.5 within the same strategy and ended up losing 900 (715 I won and 900 trip money) in total while in positive counts. Currently, I’m still playing on a small sample size of 30 hours at a 39/hour rate.

    How do I explain continuing to play, even when you win big early?

  2. #2


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    You won’t need to explain it very long if you keep playing 4 hour sessions.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    You won’t need to explain it very long if you keep playing 4 hour sessions.
    Are 4 hour sessions long or not a good idea?

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    The cards do not know whether or not you win or lose...you are playing for the long term...which means you have to get in as many hours as possible....but that does not mean you have to, or should, get them all at the same place.
    I will admit to being emotionally rattled by drunk people in game, playing in a busy time, and slow hands played. My good sessions are mostly in less busy times and by myself. Is this a fair assumption by my small sample size? I’m not really worried about heat at this particular casino and most likely playing at small enough limit to be over looked.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainJack View Post
    Are 4 hour sessions long or not a good idea?
    Both.

  6. #6


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    Thank you both!

  7. #7


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    As far as small investors go, some want to invest in a term length and others want to invest on longer terms. At one brokerage, I bought a CD for one year and now, the year is at end and I want my money plus the 2.60 APY back but the brokerage guy is reluctant to return my money, wants it for a longer term. That is unethical.

    Hope you discuss before you accept an investor, how long you would want their money, what return you will provide them at minimum and maybe if you promise a greater return for more time, he might keep it going. However, he has the right.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainJack View Post
    How do I explain continuing to play, even when you win big early?
    Suppose there's a whale playing baccarat, betting $100K per hand. He has a bad run and is down $6 million after an hour. He wants to keep playing, but the casino wants to lock in their big win and backs him off. Does that make any sense?

    As long as you (or in this case, the casino) is playing a game with an edge, there's never a reason to stop play based on the recent results. A positive expectation is a positive expectation, regardless of the short-term noise.

    Another example - in recent years, roulette tables have had electronic displays showing results of the last 10-20 rolls. Not infrequently, you see 5-10 reds (or blacks) in a row. People run up to the table to bet the opposite color, because "it is due." Total BS. An independent trial is an independent trial.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Suppose there's a whale playing baccarat, betting $100K per hand. He has a bad run and is down $6 million after an hour. He wants to keep playing, but the casino wants to lock in their big win and backs him off. Does that make any sense?

    As long as you (or in this case, the casino) is playing a game with an edge, there's never a reason to stop play based on the recent results. A positive expectation is a positive expectation, regardless of the short-term noise.

    Another example - in recent years, roulette tables have had electronic displays showing results of the last 10-20 rolls. Not infrequently, you see 5-10 reds (or blacks) in a row. People run up to the table to bet the opposite color, because "it is due." Total BS. An independent trial is an independent trial.
    21forme, I am wondering if you have (or there is a list) of reasons on why (or when) to end a session. Like

    1. To maintain longevity
    2. Suspect interest from pit starting.
    3. Running short on session bankroll
    4. Won a lot in short time
    5. Not your day, losing every max bet today..
    6.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Another example - in recent years, roulette tables have had electronic displays showing results of the last 10-20 rolls. Not infrequently, you see 5-10 reds (or blacks) in a row. People run up to the table to bet the opposite color, because "it is due." Total BS. An independent trial is an independent trial.
    This is not directed at you, just a message for anyone new who might be reading this:

    Each HAND of blackjack is NOT an independent trial. (That is why card counting works, because you're keeping track of the previous cards that have come out), but each new shoe (aka after every shuffle) IS independent from the previous shoe. That is not to say that "because I lost the last three hands, I'm due for a win", however.

    Again, not directed at you 21forme (or anyone else in this thread). Just wanted it to be clear that blackjack is different from roulette on a per-hand/spin basis.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by nighterfighter View Post
    This is not directed at you, just a message for anyone new who might be reading this:

    Each HAND of blackjack is NOT an independent trial. (That is why card counting works, because you're keeping track of the previous cards that have come out), but each new shoe (aka after every shuffle) IS independent from the previous shoe. That is not to say that "because I lost the last three hands, I'm due for a win", however.

    Again, not directed at you 21forme (or anyone else in this thread). Just wanted it to be clear that blackjack is different from roulette on a per-hand/spin basis.
    Which is why games with no “memory” of results are inferior to games with a “memory” of results.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    21forme, I am wondering if you have (or there is a list) of reasons on why (or when) to end a session. Like

    1. To maintain longevity
    2. Suspect interest from pit starting.
    3. Running short on session bankroll
    4. Won a lot in short time
    5. Not your day, losing every max bet today..
    6.
    1. Yes, mid shoe is okay if negative or neutral, depending where in shoe, no if positive. Remember that deep in a shoe, a neutral deck can still become a monster.
    2. Yes or no at light scrutiny, yes at a heavily populated pit if critters are staring at you holding into your rating card.
    3. End of shoe, not enough to sustain a run or have money for doubles or splits - time to take a hike
    4. Yes or no depending on store and amount.
    5. No, as long as you have funds, though taking a break might be an idea.

  13. #13


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    21forme, I am wondering if you have (or there is a list) of reasons on why (or when) to end a session. Like

    1. To maintain longevity
    2. Suspect interest from pit starting.
    3. Running short on session bankroll
    4. Won a lot in short time
    5. Not your day, losing every max bet today..
    I don't have a list per se, but your list is reasonable. Regarding #4, understand that the reason to stop is not to "lock in a win," but to deflect attention or heat, if you so desire. Some people play until backed off. Others try to preserve longevity. Re #5, that, too, is not a reason to stop, unless your depleted bankroll prevents you from spreading as you need to, or your mental state is simply shot to the point you can no longer play well.

    And I'll add 6. You're tired and realize your skills are not up to what they need to be. Get some rest.

    And for the newbies out there, don't make the mistake of playing rated when you first start. The last thing you want to do is burn out your name before you build an adequate bankroll to really make some EV

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