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Thread: Should you Split 10s?

  1. #14


    4 out of 4 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I know I’m repeating myself here, but the answer, once again, is “depends.” One thing I see many new players do is seek black and white answers. There is no such thing as a cut and dry solution to every situation in this game, unless we’re discussing the fundamentals to card counting. There is no disputing the math. Blackjack is a solved game.

    Should you split tens? Well, if you reach the correct departure point, then there’s no disputing that it’s the correct play in terms of EV. The question is are you willing to sacrifice the EV for longevity or will you maximize your EV in return for potentially quicker back offs? How important is it for you to play locally? Are you willing to travel? There’s too many variables to consider.

    I personally don’t give a shit about back offs, so I stick it in their face. But I’ve been backed off probably more than 160 times by now. If you’re willing to travel all over the place, then that probably doesn’t matter. But if you don’t have the ability to travel, then playing with such aggression might pose serious problems for you if you value playing locally.

    One thing to keep in mind... no matter how aggressive or conservative your play is, if you’re a winning player, you will eventually get backed off. Especially if you live in an area where the games are mediocre at best. Why? Because in order to beat those games, you’ll probably have to use a pretty big spreads to beat those games for any meaningful amount of money. So those spreads will eventually get attention. But if you live in an area where the games are exceptional, you can beat those games with small spreads and maybe those small spreads look similar to what ploppies employ. So you might fly under the radar for quite some time.

    I don’t care about the back offs. But I also don’t care to travel. And every once in a while, you’ll find a casino that is completely oblivious and they’ll let you spread like crazy, along with splitting tens. You’d be surprised how many casinos let me play marathon sessions, employing insulting spreads and splitting tens over and over. But for every one of those casinos, there’s several others that will back you off in a heartbeat. Just try to figure out what makes sense to you and fire away! Or don’t. But I will say this... it sucks when you play with a ton of camo and the casino still backs you off quickly anyway. Then you can’t help but think about all of the additional EV you just left on the table.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryemo View Post
    I know I’m repeating myself here, but the answer, once again, is “depends.” One thing I see many new players do is seek black and white answers. There is no such thing as a cut and dry solution to every situation in this game, unless we’re discussing the fundamentals to card counting. There is no disputing the math. Blackjack is a solved game.

    Should you split tens? Well, if you reach the correct departure point, then there’s no disputing that it’s the correct play in terms of EV. The question is are you willing to sacrifice the EV for longevity or will you maximize your EV in return for potentially quicker back offs? How important is it for you to play locally? Are you willing to travel? There’s too many variables to consider.

    I personally don’t give a shit about back offs, so I stick it in their face. But I’ve been backed off probably more than 160 times by now. If you’re willing to travel all over the place, then that probably doesn’t matter. But if you don’t have the ability to travel, then playing with such aggression might pose serious problems for you if you value playing locally.

    One thing to keep in mind... no matter how aggressive or conservative your play is, if you’re a winning player, you will eventually get backed off. Especially if you live in an area where the games are mediocre at best. Why? Because in order to beat those games, you’ll probably have to use a pretty big spreads to beat those games for any meaningful amount of money. So those spreads will eventually get attention. But if you live in an area where the games are exceptional, you can beat those games with small spreads and maybe those small spreads look similar to what ploppies employ. So you might fly under the radar for quite some time.

    I don’t care about the back offs. But I also don’t care to travel. And every once in a while, you’ll find a casino that is completely oblivious and they’ll let you spread like crazy, along with splitting tens. You’d be surprised how many casinos let me play marathon sessions, employing insulting spreads and splitting tens over and over. But for every one of those casinos, there’s several others that will back you off in a heartbeat. Just try to figure out what makes sense to you and fire away! Or don’t. But I will say this... it sucks when you play with a ton of camo and the casino still backs you off quickly anyway. Then you can’t help but think about all of the additional EV you just left on the table.
    Yes Ryemo nailed it. If you won’t be back to the casino for awhile then yes split away. But if you don’t travel then splitting 10s locally is going to bite you.

  3. #16


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    from a mathematical perspective the question should be worded "why wouldn't you split 10s" as opposed to "should" you split 10s

    to simplify this proposition:

    - dealer has a 5 or 6 upcard showing
    - you are sitting with a ten on each hand
    - out of the gate there are 5 out of 13 tens or aces ranks (10, J, Q, K, A)
    - the index (hilo) is TC +5, (suggesting that there are 5 more tens/aces per deck than a normal deck composition)
    - this means that 10/13 cards remaining, per deck, are either a 10 or an ace (haha!)
    Maybe I am too tired, but to me there is an error here. A normal deck contains 20 Tens and Aces (10,J,Q,K,A in Spades, Clubs, Hearts and Diamonds) out of 52 cards. So, as you stated correcty, 20/52 = 5/13 of all cards are high cards.

    Using the High-Low count, we have 20 low cards (2,3,4,5,6), 12 neutral cards (7,8,9) and 20 high cards (10,J,Q,K,A) per deck.
    Now suppose we have a 2 deck game with 40 low cards, 40 high cards and 24 neutral cards in the pack, 104 cards altogether.

    If after dealing out one deck, the TC is +5, this means that the RC is also +5, so we have seen maybe 23 low cards, 18 high cards and 11 neutral cards.
    So the remaining deck consists of 17 low cards, 22 high cards and 13 neutral cards. But this means that the probability of a high card in the remaining pack is 22/52 = 11/26 = 5.5/13, which is not so much higher than in a neutral deck (5/13). And it has by no means doubled to 10/13.

    The problem is that the TC indicates a surplus of 5 high cards per full deck (52 cards), not per quarter deck (13 cards).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-17-2019 at 06:40 PM.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post

    If after dealing out one deck, the TC is +5, this means that the RC is also +5, so we have seen maybe 23 low cards, 18 high cards and 11 neutral cards.
    So the remaining deck consists of 17 low cards, 22 high cards and 13 neutral cards. But this means that the probability of a high card in the remaining pack is 22/52 = 11/26 = 5.5/13, which is not so much higher than in a neutral deck (5/13). And it has by no means doubled to 10/13.
    Excellent query.
    You’re suggesting that they’re are, with 1.0 decks remaining, 22 high, 17 low and 13 neutral. But, what if they’re 24 high, 19 low and 9 neutral. Or, what if they’re 26 high, 21 low and 5 neutral. For that matter, what if they’re 28 high, 23 low and 1 neutral.

    The above all represent true +5. So, I guess they’re true 5’s, and then they’re incredible true 5’s. So, what the question really becomes is - what is the proportion of high to neutral to low cards. Knowledge of all 3 ranges will make you DANGEROUS.

    There has been prior commentary on this topic through Tarzan’s posts, Three’s posts as well as Moses’s column count.

    Further, Digman alluded to this in his brilliant super duper ultra interesting recent response to BJAnalyst.
    Last edited by Freightman; 08-17-2019 at 08:11 PM. Reason: That was Dogman, not Digman

  5. #18
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    While side counts and "columnular" methods can help, hilo DOES get the $$$...obliviously the final deck could've had only 5 bigs, 0 smalls and 47 neutrals....THAT'S CALLED VARIANCE, PAL....DEAL WITH IT

    good luck!!!

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    While side counts and "columnular" methods can help, hilo DOES get the $$$...obliviously the final deck could've had only 5 bigs, 0 smalls and 47 neutrals....THAT'S CALLED VARIANCE, PAL....DEAL WITH IT

    good luck!!!
    For 1 deck remaining in double deck for true +5, which was represented

    Could never have 47 neutral cards
    Could never have 0 small cards
    Could never have had 5 large cards

    Don, what say you on columnular

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    For 1 deck remaining in double deck for true +5, which was represented

    Could never have 47 neutral cards
    Could never have 0 small cards
    Could never have had 5 large cards

    Don, what say you on columnular
    Assuming high low the most neutral cards (7,8 and 9) that could be in a double deck game is 24 at one deck penetration. Since you need to maintain a true count of +5 the most neutral cards there could be would be 23.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Assuming high low the most neutral cards (7,8 and 9) that could be in a double deck game is 24 at one deck penetration. Since you need to maintain a true count of +5 the most neutral cards there could be would be 23.
    Please educate me as to the validity of your reasoning.

    So that you understand why I ask, if there are 52 cards remaining (not dealt or behind a cut card), if using Hi-Lo Count, a +5 count could be comprised of five (5) Ace and 10 value cards, zero (0) two (2) through (6) value cards, and forty-seven (47) seven (7) through nine (9) value cards.

    What am I missing that would make your assumption/conclusion exclusively correct?

    Can the seven (7) through nine (9) value cards be clumped within fifty (50%) percent of the double decked cards? No? Randomly shuffled cards do not prevent that double deck shuffled status. I am not talking likelihood, but possibilities.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

  9. #22


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    Of course 47 neutral cards are not possible since double deck contains only 24 neutral cards, as he wrote.

  10. #23
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    ah...i see pinky introduced dd in the thread....fyi, i do not have the time nor desire to read responses more then 1 paragraph...missed that intro

    GOOD LUCK!!!

  11. #24


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    dd was only an example, for reasons of simplicity. I didn't want to calculate this for 6 decks because I was tired when writing.

  12. #25


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I once split 10s, vs a dealer 5. This was in a sky high count at true 8 or so, late into the shoe.
    Lost both max bets if you're wondering.

    Several other times however, I've been technically at the index to split 10s but didn't do it. For example 10,10 v 6 at +5.

    I wouldn't take the extra risk and break apart a very strong hand for a slightly greater EV play (and near the index it is very very slight) unless you get lots of hours in and are okay with the higher variance, along with accepting the heat it could bring.

    For myself, not getting a ton of hours of playing in, it is probably best to just keep the 20, and keep the strong hand secure and more likely have a winning session. Losing a tiny bit of EV but also lowering variance and ROR by using risk averse indexes can actually be the better EV move.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    I once split 10s, vs a dealer 5. This was in a sky high count at true 8 or so, late into the shoe.
    Lost both max bets if you're wondering.

    Several other times however, I've been technically at the index to split 10s but didn't do it. For example 10,10 v 6 at +5.

    I wouldn't take the extra risk and break apart a very strong hand for a slightly greater EV play (and near the index it is very very slight) unless you get lots of hours in and are okay with the higher variance, along with accepting the heat it could bring.

    For myself, not getting a ton of hours of playing in, it is probably best to just keep the 20, and keep the strong hand secure and more likely have a winning session. Losing a tiny bit of EV but also lowering variance and ROR by using risk averse indexes can actually be the better EV move.
    One of the reasons for risk averse is to protect delicate bankrolls.

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