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Thread: Should you Split 10s?

  1. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    ...I wouldn't take the extra risk and break apart a very strong hand for a slightly greater EV play (and near the index it is very very slight)....
    not so fast....according to "the Don's" famous illustrious 18, splitting 10s vs 5 is the 3rd or 4th ranked index play....so according to you, the next 14 are very, very, very, very, very (ok, enough) slightly >+ev plays....so the question may be more precisely worded, no offense, 'why bother using index plays at all if you are playing above your br'???

    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    I once split 10s, vs a dealer 5. This was in a sky high count at true 8 or so, late into the shoe.
    Lost both max bets if you're wondering.....
    really??? that's child's play....try spitting 7s vs a 6 to end up with a 13 (crappy), a 20 (off of a double down 7-3), and 17 (this is 4 bets if you are counting)....only to have the dealer pull an 8, 7 for a 21 SWEEP....bye, bye 2k...lol...but actually ended up with a winning session

    I remember thinking to myself before the dealer drew, "even if the dealer has the Ace in her hole..lol...I'm still ok"...then...my excitement roared when she flipped a 7...then an 8....

    moral is, play this long enough, you learn to do what's right, mathematically, and you'll be ok in long run

    GOOD LUCK!!!
    Last edited by Sharky; 08-20-2019 at 04:56 PM.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    not so fast....according to "the Don's" famous illustrious 18, splitting 10s vs 5 is the 3rd or 4th ranked index play....so according to you, the next 14 are very, very, very, very, very (ok, enough) slightly >+ev plays....so the question may be more precisely worded, no offense, 'why bother using index plays at all if you are playing above your br'???



    really??? that's child's play....try spitting 7s vs a 6 to end up with a 13 (crappy), a 20 (off of a double down 7-3), and 19 (this is 4 bets if you are counting)....only to have the dealer pull an 8, 7 for a 21 SWEEP....bye, bye 2k...lol...but actually ended up with a winning session

    moral is, play this long enough, you learn to do what's right, mathematically, and you'll be ok in long run

    GOOD LUCK!!!
    The issue is EV maximizing at index garnering only slightly over 50% of expected value versus risk averse play garnering 70% plus of expected value, said risk averse play allowing the shoestring bankroll to play a higher max bet.

    What’s right on any play, among other things, are ramps and index play based on simulation, which 8ncludes the factor of bankroll.

    As far as your pride in losing 2k on a bad beat - really, who cares - that’s an everyday thing - you might have just as easily won.

  3. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    ...As far as your pride in losing 2k on a bad beat - really, who cares - that’s an everyday thing - you might have just as easily won.

    where's the 'pride loss', freighty????..i laughed it off and kept slamming away (even though that was the last hand of that shoe)

    btw....here in America, LOL means Laugh Out Loud....meaning I laughed it off and moved on...no biggie here

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post

    really??? that's child's play....try spitting 7s vs a 6 to end up with a 13 (crappy), a 20 (off of a double down 7-3), and 17 (this is 4 bets if you are counting)....only to have the dealer pull an 8, 7 for a 21 SWEEP....bye, bye 2k...lol...but actually ended up with a winning session

    GOOD LUCK!!!
    Hell, now that I think of it, I lost about 20 max bets in 1 shoe, ending up with about a 5 or 600 dollar profit. That shit happens all the time.

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    where's the 'pride loss', freighty????..i laughed it off and kept slamming away (even though that was the last hand of that shoe)

    btw....here in America, LOL means Laugh Out Loud....meaning I laughed it off and moved on...no biggie here
    Gotcha. As it should be.

  6. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Hell, now that I think of it, I lost about 20 max bets in 1 shoe, ending up with about a 5 or 600 dollar profit. That shit happens all the time.

    exactly...I was just trying to emphasize to newbs that you have to follow the math in the long run...something that was NOT SURPRISINGLY lost on you, too

    GOOD LUCK!!!

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    exactly...I was just trying to emphasize to newbs that you have to follow the math in the long run...something that was NOT SURPRISINGLY lost on you, too

    GOOD LUCK!!!
    Assuming the proper skill set and bankroll, the math wins - agreed.
    2 points
    1. Given the exact set of shoe circumstances, the approach by 2 different competent counters can be entirely different, both approaches being correct by simulation and tolerance to risk.
    2. Further, given the exact set of shoe circumstances, an approach attacking the issue of variance can be accommodated.........something that was NOT SURPRISINGLY lost in you, too.

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Assuming the proper skill set and bankroll, the math wins - agreed.
    2 points
    1. Given the exact set of shoe circumstances, the approach by 2 different competent counters can be entirely different, both approaches being correct by simulation and tolerance to risk.
    2. Further, given the exact set of shoe circumstances, an approach attacking the issue of variance can be accommodated.........something that was NOT SURPRISINGLY lost in you, too.
    I personally think someones long term view and success of counting is partially determined by the variance they experience when first up and running. Before you guys pile on, I realize some of you are freaking immortals with no emotion to money what so ever and fully understand the grind. This applies to the average person.

    Player A and Player B both start their journeys the same way. They eat live and sleep studying the game. After two years they have identical skills and start with identical bankrolls they're salty and ready for war.

    Player A heads off and runs like god for his first year. He loves blackjack even more, as he watches his bankroll grow he studies even harder gaining a deeper understanding of things. He whistles zippidy do dah as he drives to the casino for his sessions. He's off and running, he knows things don't usually go this well from previous study, but hey, times are great.

    Player B Heads off and the poor soul finds winning sessions few and far between. He watches his bankroll dwindle, first down 25%, then down another 40%. He's studying and knows he's playing his 'A' game, but just can't catch a decent run. He ends the year down 85%..

    I think the scenario mentioned above happens all the time when looking at two new serious counters. I have feeling Player A will be around for quite sometime, he'll catch some bad variance eventually, but he's had some success and will be more willled to bear through it. Probably a coin flip at best if Player B is anywhere near a blackjack table 3 years down the road.
    Last edited by UncleChoo; 08-20-2019 at 06:48 PM.

  9. #35


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    What or who is RWM and GWE?

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    What or who is RWM and GWE?
    Should be GWAE. Richard Munchkin on the podcast Gambling With an Edge.

    Don

  11. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Should be GWAE. Richard Munchkin on the podcast Gambling With an Edge.

    Don
    Thanks!

  12. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    @[email protected] you are not already listening to their weekly podcasts, you should be.
    I've been checking out old episodes. It's a cool show. I like the wide range of guests, everyone from superstars to average people. Ever since listening, I find myself always looking at other games
    that can be exploited from sloppy dealer procedures etc. Haven't really found anything yet, but I'm probably to green to notice something if it does pop up. The hunt shall continue though.

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