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Thread: Is an economic recession good for card counting?

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by shockerman View Post
    Speaking of yield curves, I read the US T bond yield curve is now inverted which means more people are putting money in safer places. Nervousness, yes. Recession? Its not looking good.
    fix China trade problems, then all is well.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    fix China trade problems, then all is well.
    Fix the Fiscal problem that was started in 2017 and the Fed will follow suit.

    Speaking of markets: Hey Don, how has the recent monetary and fiscal policies affected the securities market (with respect to volatility, ceteris paribus)? I would imagine that with the recent passing of the TCJA that there would be a sort of "overheating" effect, resulting in too much cash chasing too few capital goods, since no one seems to be increasing the purchase of capital goods. Correct me if I am wrong. If so, do you smell an AP opportunity?

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    Fix the Fiscal problem that was started in 2017 and the Fed will follow suit.

    Speaking of markets: Hey Don, how has the recent monetary and fiscal policies affected the securities market (with respect to volatility, ceteris paribus)? I would imagine that with the recent passing of the TCJA that there would be a sort of "overheating" effect, resulting in too much cash chasing too few capital goods, since no one seems to be increasing the purchase of capital goods. Correct me if I am wrong. If so, do you smell an AP opportunity?
    Clearly, the Fed hasn't helped the markets recently. But many other forces are at play, as well, and as long as the China tariffs remain front and center, it doesn't take much to spook this market (increase volatility). That said, actual realized market volatility (not the bullshit VIX, which doesn't measure anything), just recently spiked to 19.9% (monthly measurement), with the current big down days, but was as low as 8.4% just two weeks ago.

    As for opportunity, I'm not a market directional guy. I didn't make money predicting market moves. Rather, I made it hoping that the market would do absolutely nothing for the longest time possible!

    Don

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    actual realized market volatility (not the bullshit VIX, which doesn't measure anything),
    Is there a better index or published calculated number for volatility?

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Is there a better index or published calculated number for volatility?
    Go to our website and have a look around: realvol.com

    Don

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