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Thread: Is an economic recession good for card counting?

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    Is an economic recession good for card counting?

    I recall watching a video where a struggling Las Vegas casino offered a "whale" (really a card counter) extremely favorable blackjack conditions. They did this because it was during a recession and they were really struggling for customers. The guy ended up taking them for a lot of money, but I digress.

    My question is would an economic recession be favorable to counters due to the casino looking for customers, or would a recession be harmful for counters due to the casino being on higher alert for any advantage players who could take their money? Or does it make no difference at all?

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    I would say a recession is bad news for card counters. The less revenue the casino makes the more they watch who is playing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TAGR View Post
    I recall watching a video where a struggling Las Vegas casino offered a "whale" (really a card counter) extremely favorable blackjack conditions. They did this because it was during a recession and they were really struggling for customers. The guy ended up taking them for a lot of money, but I digress.

    My question is would an economic recession be favorable to counters due to the casino looking for customers, or would a recession be harmful for counters due to the casino being on higher alert for any advantage players who could take their money? Or does it make no difference at all?
    Are you referring to Don Johnson?

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    The less discretionary income, the less the betting handle for casinos.

    Yes, the yield curve is inverted, and yes the yield curve often inverts before a recession. But just because the yield curve inverts, it does not automatically mean we are going into recession. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TAGR View Post
    I recall watching a video where a struggling Las Vegas casino offered a "whale" (really a card counter) extremely favorable blackjack conditions. They did this because it was during a recession and they were really struggling for customers. The guy ended up taking them for a lot of money, but I digress.

    My question is would an economic recession be favorable to counters due to the casino looking for customers, or would a recession be harmful for counters due to the casino being on higher alert for any advantage players who could take their money? Or does it make no difference at all?
    If your talking about the same guy I remember reading about his name was Don something I think. I remember reading some long article about him talking about how he could beat blackjack without card counting and how he bet's so big on every hand and he was just great blah blah blah. Then I found another article about the same guy and it talked about how he got a huge rebate on losses. It was funny because I think the first article I read was an interview with him and if remember correctly he didn't mention his big rebates. This was 5 or 6 years ago so the exact details are fuzzy.

    Maybe I should read all the posts before commenting because I just noticed someone writing the name Are you referring to Don Johnson

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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post
    If your talking about the same guy I remember reading about his name was Don something I think. I remember reading some long article about him talking about how he could beat blackjack without card counting and how he bet's so big on every hand and he was just great blah blah blah. Then I found another article about the same guy and it talked about how he got a huge rebate on losses. It was funny because I think the first article I read was an interview with him and if remember correctly he didn't mention his big rebates. This was 5 or 6 years ago so the exact details are fuzzy.

    Maybe I should read all the posts before commenting because I just noticed someone writing the name Are you referring to Don Johnson
    I don’t know the whole story. Essentially, he kept his winnings and got a rebate on his losses. The rebates were more than sufficient to overcome house edge. Something like that anyways.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I don’t know the whole story. Essentially, he kept his winnings and got a rebate on his losses. The rebates were more than sufficient to overcome house edge. Something like that anyways.
    Correct.

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    From my experience, no, it isn't. There is less action to blend in with and casinos start looking at lower level players than usual to give scrutiny to. That's the game part. From the standpoint of marketing offers, the 2008-2010 recession was incredible. It was like the casinos had backed up a dumptruck to get players into their buildings and the offers kept on coming for 2 or 3 more years after the recession was over with.

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post
    If your talking about the same guy I remember reading about his name was Don something I think. I remember reading some long article about him talking about how he could beat blackjack without card counting and how he bet's so big on every hand and he was just great blah blah blah. Then I found another article about the same guy and it talked about how he got a huge rebate on losses. It was funny because I think the first article I read was an interview with him and if remember correctly he didn't mention his big rebates. This was 5 or 6 years ago so the exact details are fuzzy.

    Maybe I should read all the posts before commenting because I just noticed someone writing the name Are you referring to Don Johnson
    Don had a 20% rebate on losses if he lost $500,000 or more on any given trip. Most loss rebates have a time requirement, there was none on this deal. So he'd just bet gigantic and try to lose the $500,000 as quickly as possible and that would be it for the trip. $500K in markers covered by a $400K check. If he won he'd play and give them some clock time and quit when he was up $2 or $3 Million. Little did the casino know that he had the edge on all of his bets not including the loss rebate. He had all sorts of little things going on that added together gave him a good edge on his action. Most of the stuff did not involve a traditional count game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    Don had a 20% rebate on losses if he lost $500,000 or more on any given trip. Most loss rebates have a time requirement, there was none on this deal. So he'd just bet gigantic and try to lose the $500,000 as quickly as possible and that would be it for the trip. $500K in markers covered by a $400K check. If he won he'd play and give them some clock time and quit when he was up $2 or $3 Million. Little did the casino know that he had the edge on all of his bets not including the loss rebate. He had all sorts of little things going on that added together gave him a good edge on his action. Most of the stuff did not involve a traditional count game.
    I found the original article I read a long time ago. I was wrong, he did mention the rebate he was getting.

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    A recession would create less disposable income overall. That would lead to less trips to Las Vegas, or the local casino. I would think they would offer more incentives and cut costs in places like support services and labor. (security, pit bosses, hospitality, food and beverage service etc.) The casino may not invest in expensive new security devices and stick with what they have. I heard a podcast with a casino security expert who said they only spend 10% of their time searching for AP play. That may include employee theft, I'm not sure. I can see them cutting corners there and give security added responsibilities with no labor increase. It goes without saying that slots and games are their main source of revenue, so they've already streamlined their systems and procedures in their games with built in, predictable margins. They want you in the door first, then separate you from your money. Since they will have less traffic, they will offer better incentives to get butts in seats.
    So, I feel a recession would weaken the casino industry and offer more opportunities for the advantage player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    The less discretionary income, the less the betting handle for casinos.

    Yes, the yield curve is inverted, and yes the yield curve often inverts before a recession. But just because the yield curve inverts, it does not automatically mean we are going into recession. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No.
    Speaking of yield curves, I read the US T bond yield curve is now inverted which means more people are putting money in safer places. Nervousness, yes. Recession? Its not looking good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shockerman View Post
    A recession would create less disposable income overall. That would lead to less trips to Las Vegas, or the local casino. I would think they would offer more incentives and cut costs in places like support services and labor. (security, pit bosses, hospitality, food and beverage service etc.) The casino may not invest in expensive new security devices and stick with what they have. I heard a podcast with a casino security expert who said they only spend 10% of their time searching for AP play. That may include employee theft, I'm not sure. I can see them cutting corners there and give security added responsibilities with no labor increase. It goes without saying that slots and games are their main source of revenue, so they've already streamlined their systems and procedures in their games with built in, predictable margins. They want you in the door first, then separate you from your money. Since they will have less traffic, they will offer better incentives to get butts in seats.
    So, I feel a recession would weaken the casino industry and offer more opportunities for the advantage player.
    Having less traffic in the casinos often leads to consolidation. Meaning the closing of pits and the managing of the remaining tables to full. With fewer people going to the casino they cannot afford to let a few AP slip through the cracks, resulting in even more scrutiny not less. As far as giving more perks out to the player's, many AP do not even play rated.
    Last edited by BoSox; 08-15-2019 at 08:24 AM.

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