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Thread: Heartbreaking sims

  1. #1


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    Heartbreaking sims

    I'm new to this forum, but am excited to join. I've been studying this game for a couple years and use the zen count with full indices. I've decided to do some in depth math research and sims the other day ( 6 deck shoe 75% pen h17 DAS) and had an eye opening / heartbreaking conclusion. The reality of a strong hourly win rate with small RoR just doesn't seem reachable without a 100k bank and min 1 - 5 spread. I don't go to the casino much but when I do I've only been spreading 1 - 4 and I don't even get my max out until +8 which don't happen that often. As embarrassed as I am to say my hourly win rate according to sims with this strategy is less than minimum wage ha ha.

    Here is what I learned, I need a bet spread of at least 1 -5 and I need to have my max out and around +3. Also, I destroy my win rate playing playing minus counts so realistically would like to start wonging out at -3. My numbers look a little more appealing adjusting to this strategy but only when I take every opportunity like splitting 10's and doubling A9 on the proper counts. This looks great on paper and all, but I easily see myself spending more time being walked out the door by a security guard than playing if I played like this. It just seems there is really no way to truly camouflage your play as a solo counter and retain a health ROI. Normal gamblers just don't spread like this and someone constantly wonging out and jumping to a new table and drastically increasing there bet minds well have a shirt that says "I love counting".

    I guess my end conclusion is that this game is only worth serious time if you have a 6 digit bankroll and have the means and time to constantly travel. Is this conclusion on par with anyone that has a high amount of real casino experience? Thanks in advance to any experienced AP for their insight.
    Last edited by UncleChoo; 08-01-2019 at 06:50 AM.

  2. #2


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    No, a lot of folks started with less. However, underbetting is the big issue. If your bank roll is small, you just simply have to take some risks. Ifare spreading just 1-5 or 6, you would need your max bet out early, like TC2 or TC3. If you are playing $10 red chip games, $10k would be sufficient. A lot of people started with less. You still need some luck.

  3. #3


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    I am even newer to BJ than you, UncleChoo. I'm 73. I played once in the 60's at Vegas and took $20 to $500 by accident. But, kept playing, because that's what I was doing..."playing", not trying to win. By 5am I was down to $30, so I retired to my hotel room (which I had paid for before I started playing BJ).

    Regarding your pessimism...I feel the same. I started studying BJ in earnest a few months ago and have played a little online free BJ. But, being the skeptic that I am, I just didn't trust the casino's shoe. So, I wrote my own BJ program that shuffles the shoe and can display it on my PC's screen. Then, I play and have noted that some very strange deals and draws DO occur.

    I am now writing an analytical module that will allow me to run different strategies against the same previously-saved shoes over and over. I'm hoping to find a strategy that will be easy to remember and execute at the table. I still do NOT trust online BJ. I don't count cards.
    Good luck. delphiguru

  4. #4


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    I dont want to use my normal handle cause casinos have easily linked me to my handle and i have proof, i didnt do anything to protect it thinking it wouldnt ever hurt me that bad. Its also very difficult for me to write and change my style of writing. With that being said you got to spread 1-20 if ur using zen full indexes with rsa and 1-30 if no rsa.

    Zeebabar everyones got different thing that makes this game tuff from them. its like a lesson in pychology if your quiet with yourself when you get anexity or a stuck feeling when your playing that makes you play sub optimal. Everyones response is going to be different. Yours is scared of betting money within your bankroll and you still bet chicken feed nickle chips. Mine was when I first started I kept increasing my bets to 200 max bets 2x500 would need 200k and thought I would be able to keep scaling. When I found resistance at a very high level I realized I did this cause I craved action and I wanted to feel special and important. When I couldn't get down anymore at those levels and was triggered with other mental health conditions I starting playing whale action in -ev games and lost 7 figures. So there is an oppositie side of easily being able to push out the big bets that's negative

    you have to understand zee the games u played had good cuts but if your playing h17 das rsa or no rsa with 75percent or worst pen then the game is a fucking gun fight and your carrying a knife. You got to do what you got to do to survive. good luck!

  5. #5


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    Thanks for the stories and advice. I guess I just need to realize I'm going to need to gamble a bit and hope to catch positive variance so I can be off and running. Luckily, I do have a day job so bankrolls are replenish-able. I have a lot to learn as far as other AP techniques such as ace sequencing and shuffle tracking. The biggest obstacle I have to overcome is I have gambler fallacy logic embedded in my head. If I double my buy in in 20 minutes I want to cash out and lock in my win so I can feel good driving home and have a false sense of beating the game. I have to learn to think like an experienced pro- Wins and losses mean nothing, the only goal is to put as much time in as possible and let the math work out. Unfortunately, easier said than done.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    No, a lot of folks started with less. However, underbetting is the big issue. If your bank roll is small, you just simply have to take some risks. Ifare spreading just 1-5 or 6, you would need your max bet out early, like TC2 or TC3. If you are playing $10 red chip games, $10k would be sufficient. A lot of people started with less. You still need some luck.
    Hmmm, my understanding of a proper bet ramp is that you should put out your max bet at a TC of +4, not +3 (plus three is for insurance), otherwise it is overbetting. For shoe games, 1-5 ain't not enough, 1-10 would be better, e.g. 10K bank with min bet of 10 and max bet of 100 dollars. Regarding red 5 dollar chips: I have a chip suitcase which additionally contains 10 dollar chips in blue, but don't know if this color and denomination is common in the US.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-01-2019 at 08:05 PM.

  7. #7


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post
    Thanks for the stories and advice. I guess I just need to realize I'm going to need to gamble a bit and hope to catch positive variance so I can be off and running. Luckily, I do have a day job so bankrolls are replenish-able. I have a lot to learn as far as other AP techniques such as ace sequencing and shuffle tracking. The biggest obstacle I have to overcome is I have gambler fallacy logic embedded in my head. If I double my buy in in 20 minutes I want to cash out and lock in my win so I can feel good driving home and have a false sense of beating the game. I have to learn to think like an experienced pro- Wins and losses mean nothing, the only goal is to put as much time in as possible and let the math work out. Unfortunately, easier said than done.
    ”Let the math work out”, well, for it to work out is near impossible. Math got no emotions, no fatigue, no distraction, feels no heat, does not get backed out, got no emotions, does not have to deal with cameras, ploppies, pit bosses or that cute hostess. After all that, Math gets only a 1-2% edge. Now, you, having to deal with expenses, limited bankroll, idiot ploppies, fatigue, distractions (that hostess with the beautiful boobs falling out, asking you if you wanted anything)....well that 1-2% is not available to you.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    For shoe games, 1-5 ain't not enough, 1-10 would be better,
    generally this is true but certainly not universal . Counting has become very tough ( quick counter measure) . Read as much as you can and practice a lot and i mean a lot . Some people play a very aggressive game and some just milk it cause they can't move around a lot. Choose your style of play accordingly.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    ”Let the math work out”, well, for it to work out is near impossible. Math got no emotions, no fatigue, no distraction, feels no heat, does not get backed out, got no emotions, does not have to deal with cameras, ploppies, pit bosses or that cute hostess. After all that, Math gets only a 1-2% edge. Now, you, having to deal with expenses, limited bankroll, idiot ploppies, fatigue, distractions (that hostess with the beautiful boobs falling out, asking you if you wanted anything)....well that 1-2% is not available to you.
    This is reality of real world play vs practice and running sims in the comfort of my home office. I'd rather pretend it's not true though and lie to myself ha ha

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    ”Let the math work out”, well, for it to work out is near impossible. Math got no emotions, no fatigue, no distraction, feels no heat, does not get backed out, got no emotions, does not have to deal with cameras, ploppies, pit bosses or that cute hostess. After all that, Math gets only a 1-2% edge. Now, you, having to deal with expenses, limited bankroll, idiot ploppies, fatigue, distractions (that hostess with the beautiful boobs falling out, asking you if you wanted anything)....well that 1-2% is not available to you.
    You better find a way . It is not easy but it is possible. You are pessimistic and lack the risk taking courage to win. I understand not everyone has the same attributes. You don't seem to have it and can not overcome those barriers to win.

  11. #11


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    Well you have to spread more than 1-5 on 6 deck for sure...unless you are only playing the positive counts.
    Honestly I don't really know how people play 6 deck games etiher. Unless you are playing green/black then the EV is just so small.
    And I never see ploppies spreading like even say 1-10...so I really have no idea how people make money on 6 deck ?

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    Hmmm, my understanding of a proper bet ramp is that you should put out your max bet at a TC of +4, not +3 (plus three is for insurance), otherwise it is overbetting
    Not necessarily true. Typically, in a deeper cut game, you ramp up more slowly and in a game with poor penetration you ramp up more quickly for optimal betting. That's what sims tell you.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    ”Let the math work out”, well, for it to work out is near impossible. Math got no emotions, no fatigue, no distraction, feels no heat, does not get backed out, got no emotions, does not have to deal with cameras, ploppies, pit bosses or that cute hostess. After all that, Math gets only a 1-2% edge. Now, you, having to deal with expenses, limited bankroll, idiot ploppies, fatigue, distractions (that hostess with the beautiful boobs falling out, asking you if you wanted anything)....well that 1-2% is not available to you.
    This is true. Math has no emotions. Math doesn't have to deal with a 100 hour streak where the dealer is drawing 20s and 21s 75% of the time.

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