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Thread: When to take a profit/loss and walk away from a shoe

  1. #1


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    When to take a profit/loss and walk away from a shoe

    I'm a newbie'ish, just learning, so can play BS and count reasonably.
    I understand the concept of wonging and the difference it can make to your EV. But, say for a minute you're not planning on wonging in/out based on the count, but you plan on exiting a shoe on x amount of profit or loss - do any of you do that? I understand you shouldn't play ideally when the count is bad, but say it's hovering in and out of being good (e.g TC 1.5-2 etc), is there a point you'd walk away with a profit or loss? The reason I ask is sometimes when I'm playing, I feel like I stay on a shoe too long, I might get upto say 10-20 units positive, when the count is good or borderline, keep playing and then end up losing virtually all my profits. Then there are other times when the count is good, I ramp my bets accordingly, but miss all the cards and it goes against me, and my stack gets decimated - so I feel like I've maybe stayed too long in the action there too.

    Should I play with like a stop loss one way, and then walk away the other side when I've made x amount of profit, or even ramp back down my bets? I know some might say you should always keep playing when the count is positive, but sometimes I've played (mainly on Verite) by doing this I've gone completely through my session bankroll in a couple of minutes after being considerably up and staying in a positive count.

    Any thoughts appreciated

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Stop losses have no effect, unless you never play again. Walking away fro a shoe with a good count makes no sense. If the count is good, you have the advantage. Doesn't mean you are going to win. It just means you are more likely to win.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #3


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    I have pulled a stop win when the count came back to barely positive and I've absolutely crushed that shoe (for 500+), just to avoid attention.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by RTR2021 View Post
    I have pulled a stop win when the count came back to barely positive and I've absolutely crushed that shoe (for 500+), just to avoid attention.
    That’s not a stop loss in the manner described. However, from your description, you’re usually reasonably deep in the shoe. This is where anything can happen and volatility is what you want. The shoe may still yet get hugely positive. If positive, you finish the shoe, if negative, take a hike.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    That’s not a stop loss in the manner described. However, from your description, you’re usually reasonably deep in the shoe. This is where anything can happen and volatility is what you want. The shoe may still yet get hugely positive. If positive, you finish the shoe, if negative, take a hike.
    Right, not optimal, and only occasional, but have done it for the reason given.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    @mors

    I've only been playing for a few years, but before I ran my own sims to see the effect of win/loss stops on hourly win rates, I used to think the same thing, "protect my profits". After running the sims I learned that win stops actually LOWER your hourly win rate. Think about it, you're on a positive count, when you are more likely (not every session, but in the long term) to win more because you have the advantage...and you stop playing.

    Of course, I should have listened to Norm, Don, and the senior members here to begin with, but sometimes my stubborn side takes over. If you're looking for a way to determine when you should stop playing, use Optimal Departure Points based on the count (Don has provided this information to us in a chapter found in Blackjack Attack); if you can trust the count to tell you when to raise your bets, you can trust it to tell you when to exit a shoe.

    If you're looking for a way to protect your bankroll, read up on Risk of Ruin and Kelly betting and adjust your bets accordingly.
    Very nice post. Solid, accurate information.

    Don

  7. #7


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    I’d add that stop wins are beneficial for longevity, but only after a shoe is over or past the optimal departure point. This is so the casino doesn’t get too interested in you.

    The reason why stop losses in the middle of the shoe don’t work is because life is one large session, the cards continually come out whether you are there or not. When you stop play, the cards don’t make up their mind that you’ll now win because you triggered the stop loss. If count is positive, keep playing.

    if the conditions are good and you’re playing correctly , even if you are losing your fridge, mathematically you’re making money once you hit the long run. Now if you’re actually losing your fridge, then money management is your problem and not “stop-losses”.

  8. #8


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    Thanks for the replies all, very helpful and food for thought.
    I thought you might all be advocates of playing a shoe whilst the count was high, and I absolutely understand why you would say this, from a maths point of view. My problem is for me, a recreational player, I don't think I'm ever going to get near the long run, or N0 etc, where my figures are going to balance out.
    I've been looking at some of my Verite stats where I've played for fun, say 200 shoes, and for me personally, staying in a shoe whilst the count was positive just hasn't been worth as profitable as if I'd have backed out and took a good profit when I was way up. Looking at my stats, there were considerably more than 50% of shoes where I'd been up 20-30 and ended up with 10 units of profit or decimated my bankroll, than ones where I realised close to the maximum profit from the shoe. Here some regular scenarios for me:

    1.Get up to a great profit on a shoe, say 20-30 units, and finish the shoe on this amount or better
    2.Get up to a great profit on a shoe, say 20-30 units, and end up on more like 5-10 units of profit
    3.Get up to a great profit on a shoe, say 20-30 units, and finish on virtually my opening bankroll or a small loss
    4.Play a high count, miss all the cards, bankroll gets decimated

    I'd say the split for me on these currently and looking at the Verite stats is about 5%/65%/20%/10%

    Because me taking or realising the great profits I sometime reach is so rare, but I do get into that area where I'm in a good profit, quite regularly, I just feel like I'm not taking advantage of them.

    Looking at my practise shoes, if I played through the entirety of all positive account shoes, then I'd be hovering around zero pretty much. But, if I bailed out on all of them at around 20 units, I'd be significantly up. I need to see if putting a bottom in at say 20 units helps me at all. Looking at my stats, over say 200 shoes, nothing has every ever come good for me once I've passed a loss of 20 units.

    I feel like if I was playing a massive amount of shoes, say thousands, the number may, may, even out. But, over the hundreds of shoes I'm likely to play, I'm not able to retain profit.

  9. #9


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    One of the most frustrating things about a newcomer who comes here and ask questions is that, a ridiculous amount of the time, when he gets perfectly good answers from all the experienced pros, the newcomer simply wants to persevere, tell his side of the story, and explain to all of us why, ultimately, he respects our viewpoints, but he is right for whatever WRONG reason!

    Absolutely NOTHING that you write above makes the slightest bit of sense, and you can try to justify it 100 more ways to Sunday, and it will all be claptrap. The notion that you think you'll never get to the long run so you may as well play differently in the short run is completely aberrational and not founded in any logic whatsoever. Suppose you had a biased coin that was 60-40 heads. And we tossed it once and you got to call. Would you be stupid enough to argue that, since you won't have the luxury of the long run and thousands of tosses, it makes no difference if you call heads or tails for your one shot? How dumb would that be?

    Bottom line: this has now all been explained to you. To me, there are really only two choices: 1) learn from what's being told to you, and do it our way; or 2) ignore us and continue doing it your way at your own peril. But please stop with choice number three, which, apparently is where YOU attempt to explain to us why your way is just fine. It isn't, and saying it ten more times won't help your cause. Your personal results on CV or elsewhere are utterly meaningless.

    Don

  10. #10


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    You can use your stop win/loss strategy when you play a CSM.

  11. #11


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    Wow. I think I might have stumbled into the wrong forum - my apologies for that. I was under the impression that this was the 'general blackjack' forum, and not the 'expert level 50yrs experience and hold a maths PhD forum', the forum where you'll be met with condescending arseholes if you dare have any questions or feedback on anything you say, and they'll assume you're trying to teach them how to suck eggs.

    For anyone that tried to help me in laymans terms - thank you for your help, and I'm grateful, as I'm not an expert with maths, I'm just a newbie starting out, trying to learn, trying to read, trying to understand what the terms all are and how to even play to a basic level. Your guidance is appreciated.

    Don, for you, to be honest, bang it up your chute. You're quite obviously a very well versed expert in the field of card counting, I'm an expert in the field of my full time job, but I'd be pretty embarrassed if I spoke to people who are learning and asking basic questions like you did, you need to grow up. Seems you have excellent theoretical and academic skills, but next to no people skills or personality.

    Peace

  12. #12


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    Typical response. You don't want to be helped. Enjoy insulting me. I didn't insult you. I told you a truth you didn't want to hear. Why come here soliciting advice only to ignore it? Answer: because you don't care what the right answer is. You want to tell us about your personal experiences, which are meaningless. What is the point? Do you want to know that what you're doing is wrong, or do you just want to talk? You don't have a question; rather you have a story to tell and you'd like everyone to give you permission to play the way you do. You don't need anyone's permission. Just continue to play your way and leave the rest of us alone.

    Don

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by mors View Post
    Wow. I think I might have stumbled into the wrong forum - my apologies for that. I was under the impression that this was the 'general blackjack' forum, and not the 'expert level 50yrs experience and hold a maths PhD forum', the forum where you'll be met with condescending arseholes if you dare have any questions or feedback on anything you say, and they'll assume you're trying to teach them how to suck eggs.

    For anyone that tried to help me in laymans terms - thank you for your help, and I'm grateful, as I'm not an expert with maths, I'm just a newbie starting out, trying to learn, trying to read, trying to understand what the terms all are and how to even play to a basic level. Your guidance is appreciated.

    Don, for you, to be honest, bang it up your chute. You're quite obviously a very well versed expert in the field of card counting, I'm an expert in the field of my full time job, but I'd be pretty embarrassed if I spoke to people who are learning and asking basic questions like you did, you need to grow up. Seems you have excellent theoretical and academic skills, but next to no people skills or personality.

    Peace
    You need a thick skin.
    What Don said was essentially - you’re asking for advice - you're getting excellent advice - you’re not getting the answers you want - you’re really prefer an answer that coincides with your preferred short term position, and you’re pissed because you’re not getting that answer.

    He is also saying - do what you want, but long term play with short term strategy gets you to the poor house.

    Don, just in case there is a comprehension issue on “bang it up your chute”, I believe he is inferring “stick it up your ass”

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