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Thread: Developing a Plan

  1. #14


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    @Freightman - I'm not worried about it. This is a public online forum. If I needed to avoid negative comments, I wouldn't post. However, I want to learn, so posting (and sometimes being wrong) is part of the process. I actually appreciate when folks point out my misconceptions if they are able to back it up. I can certainly preface my comments more frequently, but that will not prevent some folks on a forum from needling (note that the post which you are referencing was made because the member knew I was new to the game).

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    <snip>2. Index play alone will give you an extra .26% against the house edge. I'm willing to be corrected on this. The adjustment will be very, very close, but I don't have an exact number.<snip>
    QUOTE

    Splitting Tens,

    Flat-betting and using HiLo playing indexes will NOT overcome the 0.26% house edge. Stanford Wong in "Professional Blackjack" states (at location 1139 in the Kindle version, or near the end of Chapter 3 in the print version):

    "Simulation result for using basic strategy and flat $26.54 bets, sitting through shoe after shoe, is a loss rate of $15 per hour with a standard deviation of $301."

    and

    "Simulation result for using flat $26.54 bets hand after hand but varying strategy according to the count loses at the rate of $14 per hour with a standard deviation of $300."

    Therefore, using playing indexes is worth $1/hr on a total handle of ($26.54/round)*(100 rounds/hr) = $2654/hr: this is an improvement of just under +0.04%, so nowhere near the 0.26% house edge.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  3. #16


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Not sure why this should be discussed with so many different viewpoints. Finding the answer is child's play with CVCX. Take a 4.5/6 S17 DAS game (no surrender the first time). From BJA3, house edge for BS is 0.404%. Now, flat bet this game in CVCX, which uses Sweet 16 (no ten splitting), and the edge drops to 0.344%. The gain is exactly 0.06%.

    Now add surrender. BS house edge is now 0.331%. Flat betting is 0.256%. Improvement is 0.075%. End of story. No one's opinion necessary. Just the facts.

    Don

  4. #17


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    Can someone run that CVCX sim which my question from the OP rather than the diversion we had here in the comments? Would appreciate it.

  5. #18


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    rhpmike,

    I ran a CVData sim for a 6D, S17, LS, DAS, RSA game with 75% pen for a REKO-F player with one other player at the table. A 1:4 spread (1 at RC=1 and below, 2 at RC=2, 4 at RC=3 and above). The REKO player had an IBA of 0.368%.

    Thus, to answer your original question: yes, a 1:4 spread with a simple count will give an EV of more than 0.25% for a game with good pen and rules.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    So, yes, you will likely win more than you lose with a 1:4 spread and the conditions you described.
    Well, fiirst let me correct you. You can beat single deck with a 1-4 but are hopelessly a dog in all the other games and the comps will be meaningless while the heat will be increasing if you have good variance and win.

    You are better advised to protectyour status using Video Poker. Become familiar with "theoretical" that is used by the marketing departments to determine comp levels. Often times your host can provide guidance on what machines have what "theo". The theo for VP is not as good as for slots but slots require more training and have higher variances.

    DO NOT ASSUME THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD POKER PLAYER THAT YOU ARE A GOOD VIDEO POKER PLAYER. Take the time to get one of the online (mobile?) training apps to learn the perfect basic strategy for the game. I will tell you that it will take considerable practice to achieve a level of competency (99+% accurate play). Your comps will come in the mail for free play and careful thought needs to be given on how to handle them, remember they are watching. Other comps can come from your host and remember to be aggressive in askling, they don't just hand them out!

    Most stores will tell you how much "coin in" is necessary to achieve each level of their rewards program. Govern yourself by the RoR on you roll.

    Have fun and remember, if it were easy everyone would do it!
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    So, yes, you will likely win more than you lose with a 1:4 spread and the conditions you described.
    Well, fiirst let me correct you. You can beat single deck with a 1-4 but are hopelessly a dog in all the other games and the comps will be meaningless while the heat will be increasing if you have good variance and win.

    You are better advised to protectyour status using Video Poker. Become familiar with "theoretical" that is used by the marketing departments to determine comp levels. Often times your host can provide guidance on what machines have what "theo". The theo for VP is not as good as for slots but slots require more training and have higher variances.

    DO NOT ASSUME THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD POKER PLAYER THAT YOU ARE A GOOD VIDEO POKER PLAYER. Take the time to get one of the online (mobile?) training apps to learn the perfect basic strategy for the game. I will tell you that it will take considerable practice to achieve a level of competency (99+% accurate play). Your comps will come in the mail for free play and careful thought needs to be given on how to handle them, remember they are watching. Other comps can come from your host and remember to be aggressive in askling, they don't just hand them out!

    Most stores will tell you how much "coin in" is necessary to achieve each level of their rewards program. Govern yourself by the RoR on you roll.

    Have fun and remember, if it were easy everyone would do it!

    PS The game identified by Dog Hand will deteriorate to a negative by taking away Stand and Surrender. And the over and under on winning more than you lose is at best a tossup.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Well, fiirst let me correct you. You can beat single deck with a 1-4 but are hopelessly a dog in all the other games and the comps will be meaningless while the heat will be increasing if you have good variance and win.

    You are better advised to protectyour status using Video Poker. Become familiar with "theoretical" that is used by the marketing departments to determine comp levels. Often times your host can provide guidance on what machines have what "theo". The theo for VP is not as good as for slots but slots require more training and have higher variances.

    DO NOT ASSUME THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD POKER PLAYER THAT YOU ARE A GOOD VIDEO POKER PLAYER. Take the time to get one of the online (mobile?) training apps to learn the perfect basic strategy for the game. I will tell you that it will take considerable practice to achieve a level of competency (99+% accurate play). Your comps will come in the mail for free play and careful thought needs to be given on how to handle them, remember they are watching. Other comps can come from your host and remember to be aggressive in askling, they don't just hand them out!

    Most stores will tell you how much "coin in" is necessary to achieve each level of their rewards program. Govern yourself by the RoR on you roll.

    Have fun and remember, if it were easy everyone would do it!

    PS The game identified by Dog Hand will deteriorate to a negative by taking away Stand and Surrender. And the over and under on winning more than you lose is at best a tossup.
    The only problem I see with your post is that you're quoting something I never said? That was Splitting Tens, not me.
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 07-23-2019 at 03:07 AM.

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