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  1. #1


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    Question ...

    Thanks to all who answered my previous question. Here's another: I've been wonging out at TC -5. To do it earlier would mean losing my seat too often. Does that sound right?

    I've been using Hi-Low with Arnold Snyder's indexes for TC 0, TC +1, TC +5 and TC -1 (I never get to his TC -5)

    I've read many say making $20 an hour isn't worth the trouble ($10 unit bet, spreading 1-8). I'd been making 9.50 an hour working for a car rental company and finally had the courage to quit. So far, after 2 months of regular play, I'm up $4,165 putting in only a fraction of the hours I'd work on a real job. Plus, I get a free sandwich, free coffee and soft drinks. I'm really happy with $20 an hour. Again, thanks to all for your advice. Cheers!

  2. #2


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    Answer...

    Is this a DD or shoe game?

    If shoe, waiting for -5 is way too long. I'm sure Don will chime in with the page numbers, but in BJA3, there's a section on optimal departure point.

    Just because you wong out doesn't mean you have to give up your seat. Answer your phone and stand a few feet behind your chair. take a bathroom break and ask the dealer to hold your spot, etc.

    Depending on rules, penetration, and # of decks, 1-8 may not be a sufficient spread.

  3. #3


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    Assuming we’re talking 6/8 deck (if not, don’t wong out of DD). TC -5 is way too low of a wong out point. You want to minimize your time playing a table at a negative count. There are two reasons why: (1) you’re playing a negative expectation game, (2) you could be spending your time finding a new table and playing a positive count by the time either the original shoe ends or the original count becomes positive. TC -5 happens very infrequently, so you’ll be wasting a lot of time at the table.

    Some people aggressively wong out at TC = -1. For me personally I like to wong out right when TC = -2 or RC = -8. My thinking is that an RC of -8 has little chance of becoming positive again.


    Two other problems with your game that you could improve.

    (1) that 1:8 spread is too conservative, you could be making $20 an hour spreading 1:12 without doubling your risk. You may be concerned about heat, but $10 min won’t be hawked unless the place is super sweaty. Test the casino’s tolerance, it may be possible to spread even more.

    (2) “Losing your spot” implies the table is full. The second most important aspect to +EV is hands per hour (1st is pen), you shouldn’t play full tables because your hands per hour decreases, and the ploppies take all of your good cards when the count is good. Find somewhere new or a less busy shift.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tetn1s View Post

    Some people aggressively wong out at TC = -1. For me personally I like to wong out right when TC = -2 or RC = -8. My thinking is that an RC of -8 has little chance of becoming positive.
    I recall some years back playing a shoe with another counter, and a couple of others. Counter left table at the appropriate point to go for a whiz break. He returned at end if shoe, in time to see me make max bets on a couple of hands.

    Such is the volatility of a deeply dealt shoe.

  5. #5


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    Simulations are your best friend. Run custom sims to show your EV at various levels of abandoning a shoe. I use Norm's FELT and wong out at greater than +4 generally speaking. Run the sims, be your own best friend.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I recall some years back playing a shoe with another counter, and a couple of others. Counter left table at the appropriate point to go for a whiz break. He returned at end if shoe, in time to see me make max bets on a couple of hands.

    Such is the volatility of a deeply dealt shoe.
    Yes, it can happen, but it's unlikely. That's what Don's ODPs determined. Some of the ODP stuff is non-intuitive, like wonging out after one deck with a slightly negative count. Of course, part of the strategy has to be customized for availability of other tables.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I recall some years back playing a shoe with another counter, and a couple of others. Counter left table at the appropriate point to go for a whiz break. He returned at end if shoe, in time to see me make max bets on a couple of hands.

    Such is the volatility of a deeply dealt shoe.
    Right. 6D can turn quicker than most think, especially at the end. I wait longer, wonging out at at RC -14 using Zen, per a sage fellow's advice. It works for me.

  8. #8


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    People can do whatever they're comfortable with, just as long as they realize that, no other factors of cover or otherwise considered, waiting longer than the prescribed departure points costs you money. Period. In general, you should leave with very modest negative counts and not hope against hope that things will turn. This may not be what some people's intuition tells them, but that hardly matters. The math is the math.

    Don

  9. #9


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    For the original OP, there are things to try, some mentioned earlier about taking a break (phone or text, bathroom break, etc.). If heat is minimal, you should try playing 2 hands and simply dropping to one hand when count is bad or going to 2 hands in positive counts at much lesser risk. Often, at $10 table, they call out “checks play” if you bet over $100 so Iunderstand the $80 max bet but you can do 2 x $90 (or start going 2 x $20 at TC+2 and move up).

    I don’t know how you went up so much playing to TC -5 and a bet spread of $10-$80 and suspect good variance and it will go bad soon playing to TC-5.

    For me, I take a break, stand up and behind my chair when TC goes to Minus 2, pretend I have to answer a text, keep an eye on the round and count. If it gets to TC below -2 and less than 2 decks remain to be dealt (with another 1+ behind cut card), I slip a couple of dollar tip, tell the dealer to hold my 2 spots and take a bathroom break, come in time to start new shoe. If I return earlier, I just sit and watch, say I will start with new shoe.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    People can do whatever they're comfortable with, just as long as they realize that, no other factors of cover or otherwise considered, waiting longer than the prescribed departure points costs you money. Period. In general, you should leave with very modest negative counts and not hope against hope that things will turn. This may not be what some people's intuition tells them, but that hardly matters. The math is the math.

    Don
    I must not have gotten that far yet. Am in the SCORE section...

    Don, what page in BJA do you prescribe departure points?

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