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Thread: maintaining bankroll? what do you do?

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by wave View Post
    works for me.
    lol

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    You're giving out really bad advice. What is your top bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    Refinery -
    I play small - $3-$20. I am not at all pretending to be a professional player.
    I am in agreement with Refinery. You may play in an area where you can spread between $3-$20 but let's just say that would be more of a rare occurrence for most areas of the country. Most other new players could easily lose $200 in one round.

    In another post where you give advice to a new player you wrote:

    "
    Assuming you never wong, index play alone should bring that -.26% to a very slightly positive value for you, allowing you to make a little.."

    Not knowing what counting system the player would be using you should refrain from stating something like that. Even with the best counting systems, for index play, I believe your statement is false.

  3. #29


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    I spread $3-$30 regularly. Are you saying that the $3 table is non-existent in other parts of the country? The spread is hardly intimidating...

    Regarding the effect of index play in the other thread... The OP cited REKO.

    The real question is what is the mathematical advantage of using indices?
    My statement is correct *if* good index play alone will give the player an additional .26%. (The OP in that thread stated that he was playing a game with a .26% house edge.) I have not found a precise number on this for any specific set of rules or variant - I'm sure it's out there. However, in the game I play, the use of indices (using hi-lo) adjusts the edge a player has by up to 3.8% at extreme counts (TC at 10 above or below natural). An adjustment of .2% is made when TC is two below natural and three above natural. As the vast majority of hands are played fairly close to TC = 0 (or -4 in my game), the index play adjustment to the HE will be much closer to .2 than the 3.8% found at TC -10 (or -14). I'm yet to see a precise number on this, however the overall adjustment to the HE by using index play is going to be very close to .26% - and I would anticipate the number being similar for most counting systems. I'm happy to be corrected if somebody has the math. (My source: "A Pro's Guide to Spanish 21" by Katarina Walker. p. 87)

  4. #30


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    The vast majority of the country does not have a $3 minimum game. Quite a lot of the country doesn't have a $5 minimum game. It's hard to find $10 lots of places. $15 is quite common.
    Last edited by refinery; 07-14-2019 at 08:00 AM.

  5. #31


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    I cannot speak for most of the country - only where I live. I have been to twelve casinos in my state this year. Seven have $3 Spanish tables - the other three have $5 Spanish tables. All have $5 blackjack tables.

  6. #32


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    Splitting tens wrote:
    "
    Assuming you never wong, index play alone should bring that -.26% to a very slightly positive value for you, allowing you to make a little."

    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    The real question is what is the mathematical advantage of using indices?
    My statement is correct *if* good index play alone will give the player an additional .26%. (The OP in that thread stated that he was playing a game with a .26% house edge.)
    When you said assuming that you never wong in the example, that may be interpreted by the person who started the thread that the game he is playing against is going to be a piece of cake. Especially with you stating they will make a little money with index play alone. Are you even aware of the numbers of frequency by true counts with win-loss EV percentages? Well under the game you described with the pen you said 45% of all the hands will have true counts less than zero and will have a win-loss percent of -1.26. At TC's of zero the percentages are 27.69 of the hands and with a minus .12% EV "taken from BJAttack 3rd Edition by Don S". Not only should you new players use Wonging when you can, use a decent spread and at the very least learn the I18, and Fab4. Because of the fact that the game is not a piece of cake.
    Last edited by BoSox; 07-14-2019 at 01:51 PM.

  7. #33


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    Thank you for the substantive critique.

    I did not mean to suggest that the game is a "piece of cake." I also should have been more clear: I do believe every player should Wong when appropriate - especially us new folks. I do so quite frequently. I also do know that a decent spread is important. However, I would suggest those of us who are new (and more error prone) need to have caution here - an error in counting can lead to poor timing for high wagers and significant losses.

    I am quite aware of the frequency with which different true counts occur and how they affect EV. However, they are different in Spanish than traditional blackjack. What I have not seen was a proper analysis of the effect of index play on a game's EV. (I've seen quite a few "estimates.") To make sure that I am clear on what you stated: Are you saying that the effect of *perfect* index play is to lower this particular games EV to -.12?

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    Are you saying that the effect of *perfect* index play is to lower this particular games EV to -.12?
    No, I am not. At only a true count of 0 when using the I18, and fab 4 that game's EV will be -.12%.

    In the book Professional Blackjack by Wong on page 50, he states "his benchmark rules are slightly different" the following:

    "Using flat $26.54 bets hand after hand but varying strategy according to the count losses at a rate of $14.34 per hour."

    " So varying strategy with the count per deck improves on basic strategy by only a small amount when flat bets are used in a six-deck game."
    Last edited by BoSox; 07-14-2019 at 01:49 PM.

  9. #35


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    I disagree that somebody just learning the game needs to have a bankroll 1000 times their minimum wager. There is a huge difference between the professional and the recreational player - especially if the recreational player is a novice. consider the cheap $5 table. Should a novice really have (and be willing to risk!) $5,000?

    Rather... A recreational player will gamble with his/her "entertainment" money - preferably what s/he reasonably budgets on a monthly basis. However seriously s/he takes the game, when the money is gone, s/he should stop playing until more "entertainment" money is budgeted. This does not stop the rec player from learning to play well. It simply means that, while learning, s/he should not comport him/herself as a professional

    Here is what I did: I gave myself a $200/mo. budget. in March, I lost it. In April, I replenished the $200 and won $1200. I now had a $1400 bankroll and no longer replenished from my household budget. in May, I lost $200 (bankroll = $1200). In June I won roughly $600 and so far in July, I am up $500. I now have a $2300 bankroll. Some of which, I will put into savings at the end of the month.

    As a recreational player, I approach my budget very differently than somebody who is making a living at the tables. However, i would, at this point, be a damn fool to bring $5000 to a casino and be willing to risk it. I limit myself to losing $200 in a day (unless I am in the middle of a shop with a very advantageous count...) I would suggest that anybody just starting out approach bankroll management more like this (with dollar amounts set in accordance with a personal budget) than what a professional player would need to do.
    I feel like this is getting a bit too much hate. This is how I started. It worked and worked pretty well. The only major difference was I continued contributing to my bankroll even during the winning periods.

    Yes, there is so much lost EV and opportunity cost involved with it. Yes, it goes against so many fundamentals that are necessary with a larger bankroll or for a player who is doing this professionally and needs to meet certain profitability standards. It is in no way optimal and I don't see anyone arguing that it is.

    As someone who started out as a basic strategy player who was just hoping to relax, have some drinks, and hopefully get a comped meal after a stressful day at work - it was a great transition. There was no risk that I was going burn through several thousand right off the bat and be turned off from any attempts at AP in the future. There was no hit to my wallet as I was diverting entertainment money, and very slowly, into my bankroll to being with. The risk of ruin was not a consideration as the amount I was playing with was insubstantial and 100% replaceable. Most importantly it bought time to work on my skills and confidence so that when it came time to raise the stakes I was prepared. The pressure of feeling like you need to know everything, play perfectly, and have no room for mistakes or failures is removed.

    It goes back to what you're aiming to get out of it as an amateur/recreational player: a good time - not necessarily maximized profits. As Splitting Tens pointed out, that seems to be a point that was getting missed.

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