Stand on HARD 10?

[blueman]

Playing 2 hands, i had 22 on one hand and A2 on the other. Double deck H17. Dealer has a 4 up.

I split 22. First 2 i get 3 10, stand. Second hand she goes to give me a card but she accidentally takes 2 cards from deck. I see both cards, an 8 followed by a 7. She then quickly puts them back onto the deck and gives me the 8. The true count is now 3

So now my dilemma, here are my options:

1- Double to get 17 and get X on my A2

2- STAND on my 10 and double my A2 for a guaranteed 20

3- Hit to get 17 and get X on my A2

In the moment, option 2 felt like the most +ev move here. Haven't ran numbers, and i dont have a program to be exact neither.

What do you do?

[DSchles]

Yes, for sure, option 2 is by far the best.

Don

[Freightman]

Yes, for sure, option 2 is by far the best.

Don

Absolutely agree, but an interesting attention getter.

[blueman]

Awesome ty. It was a fun hand lol

[blueman]

Yes, for sure, option 2 is by far the best.

Don

At what true count is it best to double the 10 and then double the A2?

[RCJH]

Yes, for sure, option 2 is by far the best.

Don

I'm sure you're probably correct because well, you're Don and I'm not.

But if the dealer has a 4 up, and you do option 2, you're giving her the 7. And at a high true count the odds are she has a 10-under....

How did you come to the conclusion that 2 was the best option? Not that you're wrong, I'd just like to learn....

[ShipTheCookies]

I'm sure you're probably correct because well, you're Don and I'm not.

But if the dealer has a 4 up, and you do option 2, you're giving her the 7. And at a high true count the odds are she has a 10-under....

How did you come to the conclusion that 2 was the best option? Not that you're wrong, I'd just like to learn....

Reread the OP.

[Splitting Tens]

My understanding is that staying on the 10 gives the 7 to the A2 hand..... it seems to me option 2 is superior because there is little difference between a 10 and a 17. However being able to turn the A2 into a 20 while doubling is a huge plus.

[PinkChip]

I'm sure you're probably correct because well, you're Don and I'm not.

But if the dealer has a 4 up, and you do option 2, you're giving her the 7. And at a high true count the odds are she has a 10-under....

How did you come to the conclusion that 2 was the best option? Not that you're wrong, I'd just like to learn....

No, the dealer does NOT get the 7, because the player gets it by doubling his (A,2) hand (when doubling, he gets exactly one more card, which is the 7 in this case). As he wrote "2- STAND on my 10 and double my A2 for a guaranteed 20."

[RCJH]

No, the dealer does NOT get the 7, because the player gets it by doubling his (A,2) hand (when doubling, he gets exactly one more card, which is the 7 in this case). As he wrote "2- STAND on my 10 and double my A2 for a guaranteed 20."

Ah... That's what I get for reading quickly.

I figured there was something I was missing, but I suspect I had in my head one thing and even rereading didn't clarify it.

[PinkChip]

No problem. I also had to re-read and think about it at first. Particularly because it's late night and I'm tired ;-)
Often it helps to lay out the situation with real cards or at least make a sketch, because only reading text about it is somewhat tedious to imagine.
The same holds for mathematical "real life" problems. I always prefer to make a sketch first.

[DSchles]

My understanding is that staying on the 10 gives the 7 to the A2 hand..... it seems to me option 2 is superior because there is little difference between a 10 and a 17. However being able to turn the A2 into a 20 while doubling is a huge plus.

Correct. The 10 can't push, while the 17 can, but that's the only difference. So that first hand isn't going to win unless the dealer 4 breaks. And for that to be greater than 50%, I have a feeling the TC has to be at least > +10.

Don

[Freightman]

Correct. The 10 can't push, while the 17 can, but that's the only difference. So that first hand isn't going to win unless the dealer 4 breaks. And for that to be greater than 50%, I have a feeling the TC has to be at least > +10.

Don

Was surrender available?
I’ll look at this later, but it would be fun to think about surrendering the 10. I think standing on 10 would be superior to surrendering, but surrender would be great for certainty. Again, true count would be a factor.