Does this contest have a positive EV?

[Splitting Tens]

As to the original question: Does this contest have positive EV?
There is no way to know from the information provided. How many players are participating, how many hours are they playing and how much are the betting? Consider: If there are only five players, each flat bets the table minimum and only plays for a one hour, the EV is absolutely fantastic. If there are a billion players, each flat bets the table max, and plays 24/7, there is going to be a negative EV. The actual situation is somewhere in between and impossible to calculate.

If the penetration is only 40-45%, it will be hard to make money, even for a strong AP. The event is probably worth avoiding.

[Stealth]

In my experience ~25% of 6D shoes go positive before 3 decks deep. This was using backcounting and spotters, the percentage will surely increase if you are playing the entire shoe but I can't imagine it reaching 75%. I do not have imperical evidence to this effect but one could get the answer with CVData.

Would refer to the study in BJA III on backcounting and how many spotters are needed as I think it may address this issue.

[cottage cheese]

In my experience ~25% of 6D shoes go positive before 3 decks deep. This was using backcounting and spotters, the percentage will surely increase if you are playing the entire shoe but I can't imagine it reaching 75%. I do not have imperical evidence to this effect but one could get the answer with CVData.

Would refer to the study in BJA III on backcounting and how many spotters are needed as I think it may address this issue.

This is what i was looking for. i imagine for 8D it's even less than 25%, which is why i was extremely wary.

However, after mulling it over, i gave it another shot and counts seemed normal on the third day (sat out second day, essentially putting me out of the big money without risking huge variance). could've easily made second place for 10k if i didn't sit out the second day. oh well. that's what i get for being paranoid.

[cottage cheese]

What is there to "experience"? You said you played 13 hours and almost every shoe went very positive except 4. Did you play 10 shoes? 100 shoes? Who knows, because there's no hard data. I don't know what you mean by "rarely bust" and "almost always with a 7, 8, or 9"....what does that even mean? Are we talking 60%? 90% Are you just going by memory or is this stuff legitimately logged and noted? The only thing to really go off of is that there is 40-45% penetration, but that by itself still means nothing.

Your post is the equivalent of someone writing, "Hey guys, I've been a card counter for a while and I had a big bankroll and was playing rather large stakes but not too big and the games were pretty good IMO. Anyway, after playing for some amount of time I've been on a losing streak and my bankroll just went bust. What are the odds I ran this bad versus getting cheated?" There's literally no way to even guess at the answer without actual data like bankroll, rules & pen of game, spread (and if/when it changed), # of hours played, perhaps count system, and other stuff like that.

no, i did not take notes while playing. and the positive count streak was around 20 hours. how many shoes? hard to say, but at least 100.

i believe i noted that the game is 8 deck, which made me even more suspicious of the high percentage of high counts.

but as i noted in my last response, when i resumed playing, the shoes seemed normal: not too many very high counts or low counts.

[cottage cheese]

As to the original question: Does this contest have positive EV?
There is no way to know from the information provided. How many players are participating, how many hours are they playing and how much are the betting? Consider: If there are only five players, each flat bets the table minimum and only plays for a one hour, the EV is absolutely fantastic. If there are a billion players, each flat bets the table max, and plays 24/7, there is going to be a negative EV. The actual situation is somewhere in between and impossible to calculate.

If the penetration is only 40-45%, it will be hard to make money, even for a strong AP. The event is probably worth avoiding.

it was online, so impossible to know the number of players; however, i could see the leaderboard so i could estimate about where i needed to be in terms of $ bet. and i used a HE calculator to figure out my expected loss. overall it was +EV. i just wish i'd started earlier so i could have finished higher.

[Splitting Tens]

Estimating where you will need to be to win is going to lead to very inaccurate calculations as you are assuming that players continue at their current playing pace. Heaven forbid that you not be the only leaderboard watcher....

[cottage cheese]

Estimating where you will need to be to win is going to lead to very inaccurate calculations as you are assuming that players continue at their current playing pace. Heaven forbid that you not be the only leaderboard watcher....

of course, i took that into account. i just used it for an estimate (turned out to be pretty close)

[PinkChip]

To Wave, regarding betting on red and black, 0 and 00 on the roulette wheel:

But you shouldn't play American double-zero roulette anyway, because its house edge (2/38 = 1/19 = 5.26 percent, for numbers as well as for red/black) is 10 to 15 times greater than your 0.36 percent blackjack house edge! Did you incorporate this into your calculation? If you need another table game than blackjack, you should stick to baccarat (1.06 percent banco, 1.24 percent punto) or craps pass/don't pass line (about 1.4 percent).