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Thread: Does this contest have a positive EV?

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    RE possibility of getting crushed — that’s up to you to decide based on your bankroll, risk tolerance, as well as what (in terms of EV) you’re willing to play for.
    I understand, but i'm not a math guy (or even a smart guy), so i can't figure out what the odds of me going broke over this are vs. not going broke. that's why i asked for help

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    I understand, but i'm not a math guy (or even a smart guy), so i can't figure out what the odds of me going broke over this are vs. not going broke. that's why i asked for help
    Oh, well that's not too difficult to figure out. What's your bankroll (or what you're willing to throw at this), what size wagers would you make, and how much action are you planning on doing?

    Actually, I'm almost certain you can figure this out on CVCX. Plug in basic strategy (or whatever strategy you'll be using), the rules of the game, etc. etc. Don't calculate anything on CVCX regarding the $10k bounty, because that's done after-the-fact. Next, once the sim is finished, make it such that the product of "hours played" and "rounds per hour" is however many rounds you need to do in order to hit your target level of action (EG: $200/round X 100 rounds/hr X 30 hours = $600,000 in action). Then play around with the +/- 1, 2, 3 SD chart and it'll give you an understanding of the risk involved. For instance (and this is just an example) it might say something like, "75% chance you'll end between -$17,000 and +15,000". Knowing the range -17 to +15 is 75%, then you know below -17k and above +15k totals 25% of the probability, meaning you have a 12.5% chance to be below -17k for the play. However, remember that this number does not take into account the $10k bonus you'll be getting. Like I said earlier (which is obvious, but the distinction needs to be made so that you don't make any errors) you only get the $10k bonus if you complete the target amount of action (say, $600k).

    Of course, it gets a bit more hairy since if you stop short of $600k, you may still get the 3rd, 4th, or 5th place prizes. I would say, though, that if you do the analysis above and figure it's a mediocre play and it's "not quite good enough to play, but almost", then you should play it, since you still have the 3rd-5th place prizes that you can still win.

    One bonus thought, you may be able to also implement a sign-up or deposit bonus on this, as well. Just make sure that if you do a deposit-bonus that when you are in the wagering-requirements/rollover stage, that that action is going to count towards this promotion. I would think that it probably wouldn't count, but something to definitely check for, if possible.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Oh, well that's not too difficult to figure out. What's your bankroll (or what you're willing to throw at this), what size wagers would you make, and how much action are you planning on doing?

    Actually, I'm almost certain you can figure this out on CVCX. Plug in basic strategy (or whatever strategy you'll be using), the rules of the game, etc. etc. Don't calculate anything on CVCX regarding the $10k bounty, because that's done after-the-fact. Next, once the sim is finished, make it such that the product of "hours played" and "rounds per hour" is however many rounds you need to do in order to hit your target level of action (EG: $200/round X 100 rounds/hr X 30 hours = $600,000 in action). Then play around with the +/- 1, 2, 3 SD chart and it'll give you an understanding of the risk involved. For instance (and this is just an example) it might say something like, "75% chance you'll end between -$17,000 and +15,000". Knowing the range -17 to +15 is 75%, then you know below -17k and above +15k totals 25% of the probability, meaning you have a 12.5% chance to be below -17k for the play. However, remember that this number does not take into account the $10k bonus you'll be getting. Like I said earlier (which is obvious, but the distinction needs to be made so that you don't make any errors) you only get the $10k bonus if you complete the target amount of action (say, $600k).

    Of course, it gets a bit more hairy since if you stop short of $600k, you may still get the 3rd, 4th, or 5th place prizes. I would say, though, that if you do the analysis above and figure it's a mediocre play and it's "not quite good enough to play, but almost", then you should play it, since you still have the 3rd-5th place prizes that you can still win.

    One bonus thought, you may be able to also implement a sign-up or deposit bonus on this, as well. Just make sure that if you do a deposit-bonus that when you are in the wagering-requirements/rollover stage, that that action is going to count towards this promotion. I would think that it probably wouldn't count, but something to definitely check for, if possible.

    Very well explained, thank you, RS. Unfortunately i don't have CVCX because it doesn't work with Macs.

    I think the only prizes worth the time would be the second and third ones (10k and 7.5k), bc of the number of hours needed to be put in and the expected loss ($1800 for 600k of play).

    Regarding the risk, because it's technically a +EV play, if i were to lose on it (or win for that matter), will it 'even out in the long run,' like straight card counting does? or should this be considered something different? if it's the same, then i don't mind the risk. if it's a separate thing, i can't see how it would be worth it.

    Oh - and the bonus tip? That's my main 'hustle'
    Last edited by cottage cheese; 06-26-2019 at 08:02 AM.

  4. #17


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    I would expect knowledgeable AP's to be salivating at a .36 HE game with any kind of promo. To hell with the promo, will the store take the bets?

    This is a perfect opportunity to blast away at moderate to high bet levels all under the auspices of beating the promo!!!!!!!

    WTF?

    Get a bankroll and go play!
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    I would expect knowledgeable AP's to be salivating at a .36 HE game with any kind of promo. To hell with the promo, will the store take the bets?

    This is a perfect opportunity to blast away at moderate to high bet levels all under the auspices of beating the promo!!!!!!!

    WTF?

    Get a bankroll and go play!

    Clearly I'm not knowledgable :/

    What is an acceptable bankroll for this? The losses could easily run into five digits.

    And what's so special about a .36 HE game? Every game in PA has an edge similar to that.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    Clearly I'm not knowledgable :/

    What is an acceptable bankroll for this? The losses could easily run into five digits.

    And what's so special about a .36 HE game? Every game in PA has an edge similar to that.
    Don't have motivation to do the math, but would start with about 50K. I would want to be all I could within my RoR tolerance to maximize and shorten the time to the promo.

    PA games of 6d S17, das, rsa, sr are the best in the US. You will find the average games elsewhere are not generally that strong.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Don't have motivation to do the math, but would start with about 50K. I would want to be all I could within my RoR tolerance to maximize and shorten the time to the promo.

    PA games of 6d S17, das, rsa, sr are the best in the US. You will find the average games elsewhere are not generally that strong.

    I don't know if i could risk that much for a 10k prize - purely from a psychological standpoint - even if it is unlikely. Ugh, i really want to do it though. At this point i'd have to play around 8-9 hours a day probably betting over $300/hand, increasing variance.

    Also, the game is even better than I thought due to an unusual rule - so i believe it is .26% HE. Problem is I'd have to go to the physical casino with 50K in cash and deposit it to play online, and withdrawing may also be a problem with taxes, etc. I might also get taxed on that win, reducing its value.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    I don't know if i could risk that much for a 10k prize - purely from a psychological standpoint - even if it is unlikely. Ugh, i really want to do it though. At this point i'd have to play around 8-9 hours a day probably betting over $300/hand, increasing variance.

    Also, the game is even better than I thought due to an unusual rule - so i believe it is .26% HE. Problem is I'd have to go to the physical casino with 50K in cash and deposit it to play online, and withdrawing may also be a problem with taxes, etc. I might also get taxed on that win, reducing its value.
    I agree. And a bad run of cards at 300/hand could put a nasty dent in that 50k.

    CC, could you PM the name of that casino or a legit online one like it? I'd like to explore one of the online sites just to see what it's all about.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    I don't know if i could risk that much for a 10k prize - purely from a psychological standpoint - even if it is unlikely. Ugh, i really want to do it though. At this point i'd have to play around 8-9 hours a day probably betting over $300/hand, increasing variance.

    Also, the game is even better than I thought due to an unusual rule - so i believe it is .26% HE. Problem is I'd have to go to the physical casino with 50K in cash and deposit it to play online, and withdrawing may also be a problem with taxes, etc. I might also get taxed on that win, reducing its value.
    I think Stealth is saying you should blast away at this while counting and use the promo as cover of counting, for which you should probably have a good amount of cash. If you're just going to grind this out playing basic strategy then you don't need anywhere near that much, assuming you have small bets. Just go deposit like $15k at the casino and if it runs out then go re-up.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  10. #23


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    Wow, never mind. Been playing for around 13 hours now and in almost EVERY SINGLE shoe (besides 4 i think), the count goes high/very high and does not come down. Almost no negative counts at all. At every single table. 8-deck shoe, about 40-45% pen. They rarely bust when showing a bust card, and when they do, it's almost always with a 7, 8, or 9. This is a REPUTABLE casino. I've never seen anything like this. I'm thinking of just giving up because this seems so shady. I don't know if they're short-shoeing or it's something with the ASM, but this cannot be legit. It's so hard to believe a legit casino could do something like this, but i can't deny what i'm seeing.

    What are the odds of this??
    Last edited by cottage cheese; 06-28-2019 at 11:22 AM.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    Wow, never mind. Been playing for around 13 hours now and in almost EVERY SINGLE shoe (besides 4 i think), the count goes high/very high and does not come down. Almost no negative counts at all. At every single table. 8-deck shoe, about 40-45% pen. They rarely bust when showing a bust card, and when they do, it's almost always with a 7, 8, or 9. This is a REPUTABLE casino. I've never seen anything like this. I'm thinking of just giving up because this seems so shady. I don't know if they're short-shoeing or it's something with the ASM, but this cannot be legit. It's so hard to believe a legit casino could do something like this, but i can't deny what i'm seeing.

    What are the odds of this??
    Without hard data, there's no way to tell.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Without hard data, there's no way to tell.
    if you personally experienced this, there's no way you'd continue to play, right? even if the prize for most play is 10k or 7.5k. if they're clumping all the big cards in the back then this game must have a disgusting HE. Still can't believe a major casino would do this - though i guess it is much easier to get away with in a live dealer online setting versus in a real casino.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    if you personally experienced this, there's no way you'd continue to play, right? even if the prize for most play is 10k or 7.5k. if they're clumping all the big cards in the back then this game must have a disgusting HE. Still can't believe a major casino would do this - though i guess it is much easier to get away with in a live dealer online setting versus in a real casino.
    What is there to "experience"? You said you played 13 hours and almost every shoe went very positive except 4. Did you play 10 shoes? 100 shoes? Who knows, because there's no hard data. I don't know what you mean by "rarely bust" and "almost always with a 7, 8, or 9"....what does that even mean? Are we talking 60%? 90% Are you just going by memory or is this stuff legitimately logged and noted? The only thing to really go off of is that there is 40-45% penetration, but that by itself still means nothing.

    Your post is the equivalent of someone writing, "Hey guys, I've been a card counter for a while and I had a big bankroll and was playing rather large stakes but not too big and the games were pretty good IMO. Anyway, after playing for some amount of time I've been on a losing streak and my bankroll just went bust. What are the odds I ran this bad versus getting cheated?" There's literally no way to even guess at the answer without actual data like bankroll, rules & pen of game, spread (and if/when it changed), # of hours played, perhaps count system, and other stuff like that.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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