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Thread: Does this contest have a positive EV?

  1. #1


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    Does this contest have a positive EV?

    Let's say a casino had a contest where, for every $100 wagered throughout a specific 17 days you get one point, and the five players with the most points at the end wins $15k, 10k, 7.5k, 5k, and 2.5k respectively. The best BJ game has a HE of around .36%. Would anyone here try and place in the top 5, or is the variance just too high to take that risk?

    Let's also say that right now, the leading point players have 30k, 4000, 3800, and 3600 points respectively, with about six days left.
    Last edited by cottage cheese; 06-25-2019 at 04:54 PM.

  2. #2


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    At that rate, you'd have to bet roughly $700k over the next 6 days to be in the running for 2nd on down. 0.036% of that is a drop in the bucket making it hugely profitable playing BS. Even if you meant a 0.36% HE, it's very profitable. Variance I can't speak to...

    But even if you played 100 hands/hr at $100/hand for 8 hrs a day for the next six days, you'd still come up well short of the 700k...that's an insane marathon session.

    This all assumes you're jumping in with zero points accumulated.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by RTR2021 View Post
    At that rate, you'd have to bet roughly $700k over the next 6 days to be in the running for 2nd on down. 0.036% of that is a drop in the bucket making it hugely profitable playing BS. Even if you meant a 0.36% HE, it's very profitable. Variance I can't speak to...

    But even if you played 100 hands/hr at $100/hand for 8 hrs a day for the next six days, you'd still come up well short of the 700k...that's an insane marathon session.

    This all assumes you're jumping in with zero points accumulated.
    Oops, my mistake on the HE. Edited. I guess bets would have to be higher than $100/hand - maybe $300 or $400? But that's why I need to know what the variance could be. Not worth risking six figures for a 10k payout.

    BTW, you can also play roulette and baccarat. I thought about doing roulette with a friend, where one of us bets red and the other black, but then the win even for spots two and three after HE is not that great.

    I also amended the original post to reflect that the contest is over 17 days, not two weeks.
    Last edited by cottage cheese; 06-25-2019 at 04:55 PM.

  4. #4


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    It’s +EV if I’m reading it right.

    Doing $500k in action will get you 5,000 points, right? 0.36% of that is $1,800 loss. If that gets you $10,000 back, then you’re ahead by $8,200. That’s a 1.64% edge.

    At 100 rounds per hour, $125 bets, and 40 hours of action, you’ll get there. The tough part of course is this — how much will others play? The guy with 4K points might do that again and now have 8k points. Some whale may come in and play yuge and bump you out of 2nd place. How does casino record each of your bets? I imagine this is a machine promo and not a table games one, unless you expect to get rated fairly (which is NEVER going to happen). Hell, just pay off the floorman to put you in for $1,000 average bet instead of $100 average bet, and you’re good to go.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    It’s +EV if I’m reading it right.

    Doing $500k in action will get you 5,000 points, right? 0.36% of that is $1,800 loss. If that gets you $10,000 back, then you’re ahead by $8,200. That’s a 1.64% edge.

    At 100 rounds per hour, $125 bets, and 40 hours of action, you’ll get there. The tough part of course is this — how much will others play? The guy with 4K points might do that again and now have 8k points. Some whale may come in and play yuge and bump you out of 2nd place. How does casino record each of your bets? I imagine this is a machine promo and not a table games one, unless you expect to get rated fairly (which is NEVER going to happen). Hell, just pay off the floorman to put you in for $1,000 average bet instead of $100 average bet, and you’re good to go.
    This is a table games promo actually. And it's online. I know it's +EV technically, but is it worth it with the possibility of getting crushed while playing?

    Also, I think I'd need to be around 6,000 because the average for 4000 points (second place right now) since the contest started so far is 333 points per day, so applying that for another six days would be around 6k.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    This is a table games promo actually. And it's online. I know it's +EV technically, but is it worth it with the possibility of getting crushed while playing?
    Ugh. Online. I wouldn't do it. Even if I had the BR.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by RTR2021 View Post
    Ugh. Online. I wouldn't do it. Even if I had the BR.
    Why not?

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    Why not?
    Because the top 5 will be all employees of this online casino.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    Why not?
    It’s difficult to keep track “fairness” for a B&M casino....

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    If you're going to do roulette with a buddy, you need to figure out a betting schedule that would include small 0 and 00 wagers that would cover lost 0 00 bets and losing red black bets if you hit 0 or 00. Otherwise just betting red black would still leave you short of the house edge.

    The 0 00 bets would be sort of like buying insurance.

    Thought about that, but way above my abilities, unfortunately.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Then you're on the right track...don't give up so easily...I'm really not a "math" guy when compared to many of the members here, but if I can figure that out, so can you...go for it.
    bFlOqx9.jpg

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    This is a table games promo actually. And it's online. I know it's +EV technically, but is it worth it with the possibility of getting crushed while playing?

    Also, I think I'd need to be around 6,000 because the average for 4000 points (second place right now) since the contest started so far is 333 points per day, so applying that for another six days would be around 6k.
    RE possibility of getting crushed — that’s up to you to decide based on your bankroll, risk tolerance, as well as what (in terms of EV) you’re willing to play for.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    Why not?
    As others have said, I don't trust the integrity of online shops. Call it a gut decision, but transparency is sure to be less than at a traditional casino.

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