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Thread: Deck penetration when playing live online games with KO

  1. #1


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    Deck penetration when playing live online games with KO

    Hi, I'm pretty new to BJ and enjoy just playing recreationally and I'm under no illusion of making serious money.

    I've recently started counting and am going through the usual practise drills, and I'm there or thereabouts as basic strategy. I've been using KO/REKO as an unbalanced count whilst starting out to avoid doing a TC conversion whilst I get better at everything.

    Now, my question. Quite a lot of live online BJ here in the uk is using a shoe, not a CSM or a virtual random number generator etc. But as advised everywhere, the penetration is really bad like 50% and the game is pretty slow going. BUT, if you're using an unbalanced count, then should you be worried about penetration? For example, if the RC using KO/REKO goes high where you should start multiplying your stakes, but you're only say 5 hands into a 6deck shoe, then the high cards 'could' be anywhere in the 5.5 decks remaining, so why does it matter where the cut off is? With KO it says you raise your bets there and then regardless, but with a balanced count like HiLo, then you have to take into account decks remaining to get your TC, not so with KO or an unbalanced count.
    So, should you be worried about rubbish penetration on an online game if using an unbalanced count?

    I know it's not advised to play online games as they have terrible penetration, are slow, and may be paying 6:5 etc. I'm just curious to whether penetration is such a big factor with unbalanced with no TC as it is for a balanced like HiLo that uses a TC conversion.

    Maths ninjas please feel free to come in and correct me where I 'm going wrong.

    Thanks for any help

  2. #2


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    Thanks for the reply Wave, but my question is more around is penetration important if you're using a count with only a running count, not a true count. If you're using a running count, and your count goes high, then an unbalanced tells you to increase your bet - regardless of where you are in the deck. That seems wildly inaccurate at the beginning of a deck as there could be high cards hiding right at the back of the shoe and you're just about to hit miles of white space.

    I'm not playing online blackjack at the moment, but I know that one of the major complaints against it is the penetration. I'm interested if penetration is a big factor if playing an unbalanced system that doesn't care about remaining cards.

  3. #3


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    Whether using an unbalanced or a balanced count, the problem with poor penetration is that you just won't get very many favorable counts. For balanced counts, this is because the true count divisor is always relatively high. For unbalanced counts, it's because you rarely overcome the negative initial running count.

  4. #4


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    I played last weekend on a 6deck casino shoe, 3:2, DAS, I'd say penetration was ~80%. Used REKO, and had some success'ish on high counts early into the shoe, was hitting a count of around zero starting at -20. This was ignoring my pretty decent penetration (think 80 is ok?) as using an unbalanced REKO.

    If I played an online casino, 3:2, DAS, 50% penetration, using REKO, and got a count of around zero again early doors into the shoe - why would this be any different? Why would I be expected to increase my bet with REKO on a good penetration game casino game, but not even entertain it with a poor penetration online game? What am I missing? The high cards could be anywhere in the remaining decks with both games, the cut card is irrelevant surely? If I'm intending to wong in and only play on a positive count, I can't see how penetration effects play at all??

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    All the online games I've played have horrendous penetration - i'm talking LESS than 50% - and are slow to boot, though some do have unusual advantageous rules, such as early surrender. I've played in some high counts, but with the terrible pen, you're barely going to get any hands in when it does turn positive.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    All the online games I've played have horrendous penetration - i'm talking LESS than 50% - and are slow to boot, though some do have unusual advantageous rules, such as early surrender. I've played in some high counts, but with the terrible pen, you're barely going to get any hands in when it does turn positive.
    That part in bold makes absolute sense to me, if the count goes high but you don't have many rounds to take advantage.

    But the bit I can't get my head round is how penetration matters at all to an unbalanced count that isn't interested in the RC/TC conversion or remaining decks. If you get a high count on a low penetration game, really early, are we saying that it's not a real count due to the low penetration?

    I can absolutely see how balanced counts and low penetration dont mix well at all, but can't get my head round the unbalanced ones that seemingly don't care about remaining decks.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by mors View Post
    If I played an online casino, 3:2, DAS, 50% penetration, using REKO, and got a count of around zero again early doors into the shoe - why would this be any different? Why would I be expected to increase my bet with REKO on a good penetration game casino game, but not even entertain it with a poor penetration online game? What am I missing?
    When you do reach such a count, then yes, your advantage is roughly the same regardless of at which point in the shoe it occurs. What we're trying to tell you is that, with poor penetration, you will see these counts a lot less often. With fewer opportunities to raise your bet, you will earn less over the same number of rounds played. With only 50% penetration, you may not see enough good counts to even make the game worth playing

  8. #8


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    The game is always "worth playing" because you can back count online games indefinitely. There is no need to place waiting bets, especially with the "blackjack unlimited variants" (sometimes in crowded conditions you might make waiting bets to secure a spot, but there are plenty of providers that have uncrowded conditions). Since you only bet at an advantage, you are always "beating the game". But the issue is that with the poor penetration and slow game speed, your hourly rate is quite low.

    To OP : 50% penetration means that you don't see high counts very often. So you lose the most lucrative part of the shoe.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    The game is always "worth playing"
    [ ... ]
    But the issue is that with the poor penetration and slow game speed, your hourly rate is quite low.
    I never said that the game could not be beaten. For the reasons you stated, it clearly can be. But, for the other reasons you have stated, I maintain that it might not be worth playing.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    The game is always "worth playing" because you can back count online games indefinitely. There is no need to place waiting bets, especially with the "blackjack unlimited variants" (sometimes in crowded conditions you might make waiting bets to secure a spot, but there are plenty of providers that have uncrowded conditions). Since you only bet at an advantage, you are always "beating the game". But the issue is that with the poor penetration and slow game speed, your hourly rate is quite low.

    To OP : 50% penetration means that you don't see high counts very often. So you lose the most lucrative part of the shoe.
    Not always true. Many (most?) games will kick you out after a few hands if you don't bet.

  11. #11


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    Not always true. Many (most?) games will kick you out after a few hands if you don't bet.
    That's true, but you can just rejoin instantly.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    That's true, but you can just rejoin instantly.
    Right. Like you said, these game probably can be beaten but the hourly EV has got to be so low bc of the pen and game speed. I'm sure someone can figure it out.

    Also, rejoining every two minutes without betting most of the time may arouse suspicion.

  13. #13


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    Thanks all. So from what I can tell then, penetration only impacts how often you're going to see a high count if you're planning on playing the whole shoe and not wonging in/out. Less penetration = less chance of witnessing many high counts overall. Apart from that it doesn't really matter to the numbers.

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