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Thread: Playing CSM for 45 days: Won $17,000, lost them in 3 days

  1. #1


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    Playing CSM for 45 days: Won $17,000, lost them in 3 days

    So I played at a foreigners-only government-owned casino in Korea (6 deck, cut 5 decks...basically a CSM). I played 45 days everyday, flat betting ($100), (my rule: leave if won ~$400, if not, continue until you make some profit that day). This has worked for 42 days (everyday I never stayed more than 2 hours - I seemed to somehow win +$400 at some point). Any of those days, I never went down more than $3000 and seemed to bring it back up until I make profit. Those 42 days I never faced any extreme irregularities.

    Then, past 3 days, I lost all. All of a sudden, the cards were clumped and dealer would never bust, most of double downs failed (ex. 6 players + the dealer, there were many times when there were only two or three tens out of 14 cards laid out). *Dealer barely busts, really.

    I gave up counting (I originally use HiOpt2+Ace SC) when all playable games vanished in this country, and I do know that CSM's should not be played.

    But I still can't believe it has worked 42 days straight and lost them all in 3 days - I can't help but think the CSM is rigged or otherwise its cursed. The dealer won't just bust really. Would always have two low cards and make 17+.

    I dunno. I can't hide my disappointment. Although I spent only 2,3 hours a day, this is really disappointing. I stopped when I lost my profit, and all I'm left now after all the effort is ~$1300 worth of comp. Sigh. I guess it all evens out in the long run
    Last edited by Planisphere; 06-20-2019 at 01:36 AM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    What is the point of your post? How to play a losing game and generate $1300 in comps?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    What is the point of your post? How to play a losing game and generate $1300 in comps?
    Oh, were you pondering to find a point here? Because I did not make any attempt of delivering a point or a specific message - I'm obviously just whinging about it.

    You are welcome to make one out of it on your own if you want one.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Nothing to do with "clumping". This is how "systems" like this work. Or rather, don't work.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Nothing to do with "clumping". This is how "systems" like this work. Or rather, don't work.
    I just couldn't believe how such extremes/deviations? could persist and could occur so often all of sudden, and to believe this is all due to "randomness". I still cannot fathom the depth of this so-called "randomness"...I guess I was just lucky for past weeks.

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    z
    z

    Pure unadulterated "luck" (if you must apply a common misleading descriptor)
    It could have been the reverse. All that occurred was that your results happened
    to be distributed in a fashion that had the APPEARANCE of being non-random.
    You are confusing yourself with False Pattern Recognition. Have you ever watched
    the hordes of delusional baccarat players? Sad but commonplace.
    z
    z

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by SkinnyBJplayer View Post
    z
    z

    Pure unadulterated "luck" (if you must apply a common misleading descriptor)
    It could have been the reverse. All that occurred was that your results happened
    to be distributed in a fashion that had the APPEARANCE of being non-random.
    You are confusing yourself with False Pattern Recognition. Have you ever watched
    the hordes of delusional baccarat players? Sad but commonplace.
    z
    z
    Comparing with those delusional baccarat players "reading" the screen - ouch...okay.

    But still this whole random distribution amazes me (i'm an amateur - but still..)

  8. #8


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    A basic understanding of standard deviation makes it very understandable.

  9. #9


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    I'm looking over a four leaf clover

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    Because you are playing at a disadvantage, your betting system can't change that. What it can give you is a high probability of a small win, and a small but extant probability of going bust. You were able to fool yourself into thinking you were a winner by creating this artificial winning streak, but inevitably the consequences of playing at a disadvantage were evidenced in your results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Because you are playing at a disadvantage, your betting system can't change that. What it can give you is a high probability of a small win, and a small but extant probability of going bust. You were able to fool yourself into thinking you were a winner by creating this artificial winning streak, but inevitably the consequences of playing at a disadvantage were evidenced in your results.
    I'd really enjoy that 17k.

  12. #12


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If you had limited your daily loss to 20% of your total bankroll, you would still have more than $8,500.

    Other AP should learn from your mistake. Never chase the loss. Sometime you just admit it is just a bad day and go home. Even 20% limit is still too high for me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Or rather, don't work.
    It works as design for casinos. Long term I should add.

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