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Thread: Variance

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    Variance

    I haven't posted here in a while, but I want to discuss how we can lower variance, even at the cost of some EV. I have been wagering at approximately one-half Kelly (factoring in some camouflage bets). I pay attention to Score and ROR and incorporate some of Don's risk-averse indices, but I think more light can be shed in this area. We all know bout the importance of having an adequate bankroll to survive the inevitable huge downswings, but I am interested in discussing other ideas of how to limit the variance that may cause these downswings.
    I feel, with little empirical evidence to back up my assertion, that surrender is an underrated feature that we do not fully take advantage of. I know that there are surrender indices for each count, but these are geared towards maximizing EV. I am currently looking at how to minimize variance and I have some ideas about how to use surrender more effectively.
    Surrender is just one topic that I mentioned to spur the discussion. I would be looking for other ideas, strategies, and philosophies about minimizing variance.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    For example never double A,6 vs 2, never split 10, 10 vs 5,6 and another many positions, wonging ...
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 02-01-2020 at 12:04 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fireman View Post
    I want to discuss how we can lower variance, even at the cost of some EV.
    Be advised...everytime I bring up the topic here of playing with lower EV to reduce ROR, or to hustle comps, it starts a shitstorm. I suspect suggesting playing with lower EV to reduce variance will also start a shitstorm. I agree with you that as long you are willing to accept lower EV at the expense of less than 100% optimal play, it is a subjective decision each player is entitled to make, but there are several members here that get their nose out of joint if you bring up the topic.
    Last edited by Wave; 02-01-2020 at 12:26 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fireman View Post
    I feel, with little empirical evidence to back up my assertion, that surrender is an underrated feature that we do not fully take advantage of.
    Sorry Fireman, you can't lump a group of players on an internet board all into the same category of skill level by saying "we". Many members do not even have the opportunity to surrender where they play.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fireman View Post
    I know that there are surrender indices for each count, but these are geared towards maximizing EV. I am currently looking at how to minimize variance and I have some ideas about how to use surrender more effectively.
    Surrender when used properly is a wonderful rule especially for a card counter. The rule allows the player to make slightly larger initial bets knowing that they have that option to fall back on. Now I am not sure where you are going with this, but, the deciding factor on when to surrender is very clear. You only want to surrender the hand if you are faced with a negative 50% and above expectation "meaning even less win % on the hand by playing the hand out". Now if someone wants to do this differently such as surrendering before an index number is reached and thinking that they are in fact cutting down on variance is NOT thinking straight, and has it all wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fireman View Post
    Surrender is just one topic that I mentioned to spur the discussion. I would be looking for other ideas, strategies, and philosophies about minimizing variance.
    I like Wonging out of shoes as much as you can get away with while looking natural. By avoiding the worst of the worst negative EV hands the player will have less negative EV to make up when the TCs are positive. By doing this your spread can be slightly lower "cutting down on variance" to get the job done.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-01-2020 at 03:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    I like Wonging out of shoes as much as you can get away with while looking natural. By avoiding the worst of the worst negative EV hands the player will have less negative EV to make up when the TCs are positive. BY doing this your spread can be slightly lower "cutting down on variance" to get the job done.
    Well, well, well...imagine that, BoSox and I can agree on something...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fireman View Post
    I haven't posted here in a while, but I want to discuss how we can lower variance, even at the cost of some EV. I have been wagering at approximately one-half Kelly (factoring in some camouflage bets). I pay attention to Score and ROR and incorporate some of Don's risk-averse indices, but I think more light can be shed in this area. We all know bout the importance of having an adequate bankroll to survive the inevitable huge downswings, but I am interested in discussing other ideas of how to limit the variance that may cause these downswings.
    I feel, with little empirical evidence to back up my assertion, that surrender is an underrated feature that we do not fully take advantage of. I know that there are surrender indices for each count, but these are geared towards maximizing EV. I am currently looking at how to minimize variance and I have some ideas about how to use surrender more effectively.
    Surrender is just one topic that I mentioned to spur the discussion. I would be looking for other ideas, strategies, and philosophies about minimizing variance.
    Where is T3 when we need him! He addressed this issue the best!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    He addressed this issue the best!
    I prefer non-fiction.

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    why not just play a smaller fraction of kelly?

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    . Now if someone wants to do this differently such as surrendering before an index number is reached and thinking that they are in fact cutting down on variance is NOT thinking straight, and has it all wrong.
    Surrendering before the index will definitely reduce variance, but it comes at the expense of expectation. Surrender is the least variance possible, an immediate payout of your expectation. No variance what so ever. The important point is that you should not in this case sacrifice expectation simply to reduce variance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bricklayer View Post
    What would/should you think of someone using surrender if you were a Pit Critter? Honestly.
    Nothing in particular. Surrender is a rule variation like any other. Some players us it correctly while others use it very poorly. Those houses that offer it do so because more players misuse it and play it incorrectly than vice versa. So the fact that someone surrenders is not, in and of itself, an indication of anything in particular.

    Don

  12. #12
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    You can look here at your loss EV all option-
    http://bjstrat.net/
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Thanks for the link, Gramazeka. Your posts are usually very insightful.
    I agree with Don about surrender not being an obvious indicator that you are a counter.
    Getting back to my original point, it is imperative that counters (I use the term "counters" and not APs because I will concede that certain advanced techniques can be used without sacrificing much EV) give up some EV to increase their chances at long-term success. Whether it is for camo purposes or to reduce variance, understanding which tactical plays and overall strategies to use (and when to use them) is very important. Having and understanding of the cost and value associated with these deviation plays and strategies can go a long way in strengthening the player's game. For example, I will argue tooth and nail that the benefits of using half-Kelly (as opposed to full-Kelly) outweigh the costs.
    Even when I use a slash and burn approach, I do not play like a complete robot and I factor in longevity of play. Albeit, longevity in this case may be the longevity that I can get at this single session. Giving up a little to get more makes a lot of sense.

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