# Thread: Been losing for a month.

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Originally Posted by BJGenius007
You can never get the count HEAVILY in your favor. Say TC=+10 if you use level 1 count, your advantage is only about 5%. Say TC=+20 if you use level 2 count, your advantage is only about 6.66%. You can lose any hand. But if you play long enough consistently (and cards come out truly random), after the same scenario you play 1000 times, your winnings will be close to the statistical expected value.
Yup! So instead of risk dealing with all that potential stress and headache, I'd rather let the natural inevitable tendencies take effect and ride the positive streaks as they come (while increasing my bets!). Like I said, I have been using the Walter Thomason progression for around the last 15 years following it to a T, and can honestly tell you that I am UP lifetime at Blackjack!

Not sure if this forum is for counters ONLY, but I'd love to talk to other people who use WT's progression and especially those who are also as successful with using it as I am!

Having said all this I'm not knocking card counters.... if it works for you and you're PATIENT enough to deal with months of losses like the OP is complaining of, then BE MY GUEST!!!

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I see yellow in the future of this thread, and deservedly so!

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Mathematically, relying on betting systems does not work in the long run. Unless you have knowledge of the composition of a deck, you are effectively making a losing bet every time you make a wager - even with perfect basic strategy. It doesn't matter how you alter your bet each hand, you are still making wagers with a negative EV. What betting systems do accomplish is changing how you lose money - often increasing the chances of short-term winnings with increasing the risk of a whopper of a loss.. With Walter Thomason, players do lose money in the long run. You just might be the lucky one who is still ahead after a lot of play. Here is a reliable report on a computer simulation that mentions it: https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm.

No, counting cards does not guarantee winning during any particular session. However, if you can manage your bankroll and are patient, it does guarantee long term winnings. I may not be a particularly experienced player (yet), but I am a mathematician - and the numbers do not lie.

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Originally Posted by Splitting Tens
Mathematically, relying on betting systems does not work in the long run. Unless you have knowledge of the composition of a deck, you are effectively making a losing bet every time you make a wager - even with perfect basic strategy. It doesn't matter how you alter your bet each hand, you are still making wagers with a negative EV. What betting systems do accomplish is changing how you lose money - often increasing the chances of short-term winnings with increasing the risk of a whopper of a loss.. With Walter Thomason, players do lose money in the long run. You just might be the lucky one who is still ahead after a lot of play. Here is a reliable report on a computer simulation that mentions it: https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm.

No, counting cards does not guarantee winning during any particular session. However, if you can manage your bankroll and are patient, it does guarantee long term winnings. I may not be a particularly experienced player (yet), but I am a mathematician - and the numbers do not lie.
More simply put, using non count systems is the path to ruin.

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Originally Posted by Splitting Tens
Mathematically, relying on betting systems does not work in the long run. Unless you have knowledge of the composition of a deck, you are effectively making a losing bet every time you make a wager - even with perfect basic strategy. It doesn't matter how you alter your bet each hand, you are still making wagers with a negative EV. What betting systems do accomplish is changing how you lose money - often increasing the chances of short-term winnings with increasing the risk of a whopper of a loss.. With Walter Thomason, players do lose money in the long run. You just might be the lucky one who is still ahead after a lot of play. Here is a reliable report on a computer simulation that mentions it: https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm.

No, counting cards does not guarantee winning during any particular session. However, if you can manage your bankroll and are patient, it does guarantee long term winnings. I may not be a particularly experienced player (yet), but I am a mathematician - and the numbers do not lie.
Like I just got through saying in my last paragraph, if it works for you and you're PATIENT enough to deal with months of losses like the OP is complaining of, then BE MY GUEST!!!

But you obviously haven't read WT's book and the backtesting HE did, especially with only 1-2 people at the table, either. Did you know that in his thousands of unbiased trials, the PROGRESSIVE BETTOR (not the card counter or flat bettor) either lost the least of the 3 players (on obvious losing shoes), or won the most when the deck was hot? How do you explain this? Fluke? I know the innumerable counters on this forum are going to say something to the effect of "well anything can happen with only a few hundred or a thousand hands but you will still lose long-term with anything other than counting" ...... but the only problem with that is that none of us will be around for the "long term"! Long term is millions of hands and we will all be in Heaven or Hell so how can anyone even really experience the "long term" that counters frequently preach of? We aren't robots or machines even capable of playing that many hands.... we are only humans with extremely limited time compared to the "long term"!

Therefore, it's only the short term that matters in blackjack! What is short term? Anything that isn't "long term"! Yes, over millions and millions of hands, sure, I might no longer be ahead in this game lifetime, but as I just stated in my previous paragraph, whose still gonna be around? Therefore, I'm more than happy by taking the absolutely inevitable streaks that WILL happen in this extremely volatile game from the next 100-1000 times I hit the BJ tables! I will never lose 4 in a row anyway.

When I first started playing blackjack over 15 years ago, I still remember winning 9 hands in a row twice the same night against the same dealer! Now, as the odds of winning/losing 10 in a row are about 1:10000, I'd say I defined the odds pretty good, don't you?

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@ Bughousemaster

As a card counter one of 2 things happen:

I win.

I lose. I go to my hotel room and blast my ass in the shower.

See, either way I win.

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I have no intention of reading a book based on mathematical fallacies. Michael Shackleford says it well: "This piece of garbage disgusts me. The entire book is an explanation of a worthless betting system. Norman Wattenberger has specifically shown that the system put forth is no better than basic strategy. Frank Scoblete should be embarrassed for writing the forward."

You said: "
I will never lose 4 in a row anyway."
I say: "Bullshit."

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Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER
This is exactly why I dont bother to even learn to COUNT! You can be the best card counter in the world and still LOSE!
This is also true with basic strategy. If you are winning it is variance not you sterling betting system.

To be effective counting requires a bankroll sufficient to withstand the variance and, most importantly, the intelligence to understand the math/statistics of the game. If you lack these, you will be doomed.

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Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER
Of course flawless BS is what I do as well as offensive/defensive interaction *and* I have fun playing the game and dont have to WORK by unnecessarily stressing and counting every single card that comes out only to lose my ass like many other counters have!
By chance did you acquire this flawless basic strategy from the late John Patrick's book?

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Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER
the odds of winning/losing 10 in a row are about 1:10000, I'd say I defined the odds pretty good, don't you?
You are 100% mistaken.

Your chances of winning a random hand is far below 50%

Your chances of winning X hands in succession is remote

ONLY if you specify IN ADVANCE which set of hands you

are referring to. If you play tens of thousands of hands

you will OFTEN lose or win many consecutive hands.

I once played a deeply dealt 6 deck shoe games where

I won or pushed every hand. However, I have also played

shoes where I lost more hands in a row than I can remember.

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