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Thread: Been losing for a month.

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    Mathematically, relying on betting systems does not work in the long run. Unless you have knowledge of the composition of a deck, you are effectively making a losing bet every time you make a wager - even with perfect basic strategy. It doesn't matter how you alter your bet each hand, you are still making wagers with a negative EV. What betting systems do accomplish is changing how you lose money - often increasing the chances of short-term winnings with increasing the risk of a whopper of a loss.. With Walter Thomason, players do lose money in the long run. You just might be the lucky one who is still ahead after a lot of play. Here is a reliable report on a computer simulation that mentions it: https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm.

    No, counting cards does not guarantee winning during any particular session. However, if you can manage your bankroll and are patient, it does guarantee long term winnings. I may not be a particularly experienced player (yet), but I am a mathematician - and the numbers do not lie.
    More simply put, using non count systems is the path to ruin.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    Mathematically, relying on betting systems does not work in the long run. Unless you have knowledge of the composition of a deck, you are effectively making a losing bet every time you make a wager - even with perfect basic strategy. It doesn't matter how you alter your bet each hand, you are still making wagers with a negative EV. What betting systems do accomplish is changing how you lose money - often increasing the chances of short-term winnings with increasing the risk of a whopper of a loss.. With Walter Thomason, players do lose money in the long run. You just might be the lucky one who is still ahead after a lot of play. Here is a reliable report on a computer simulation that mentions it: https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm.

    No, counting cards does not guarantee winning during any particular session. However, if you can manage your bankroll and are patient, it does guarantee long term winnings. I may not be a particularly experienced player (yet), but I am a mathematician - and the numbers do not lie.
    Like I just got through saying in my last paragraph, if it works for you and you're PATIENT enough to deal with months of losses like the OP is complaining of, then BE MY GUEST!!!

    But you obviously haven't read WT's book and the backtesting HE did, especially with only 1-2 people at the table, either. Did you know that in his thousands of unbiased trials, the PROGRESSIVE BETTOR (not the card counter or flat bettor) either lost the least of the 3 players (on obvious losing shoes), or won the most when the deck was hot? How do you explain this? Fluke? I know the innumerable counters on this forum are going to say something to the effect of "well anything can happen with only a few hundred or a thousand hands but you will still lose long-term with anything other than counting" ...... but the only problem with that is that none of us will be around for the "long term"! Long term is millions of hands and we will all be in Heaven or Hell so how can anyone even really experience the "long term" that counters frequently preach of? We aren't robots or machines even capable of playing that many hands.... we are only humans with extremely limited time compared to the "long term"!

    Therefore, it's only the short term that matters in blackjack! What is short term? Anything that isn't "long term"! Yes, over millions and millions of hands, sure, I might no longer be ahead in this game lifetime, but as I just stated in my previous paragraph, whose still gonna be around? Therefore, I'm more than happy by taking the absolutely inevitable streaks that WILL happen in this extremely volatile game from the next 100-1000 times I hit the BJ tables! I will never lose 4 in a row anyway.

    When I first started playing blackjack over 15 years ago, I still remember winning 9 hands in a row twice the same night against the same dealer! Now, as the odds of winning/losing 10 in a row are about 1:10000, I'd say I defined the odds pretty good, don't you?

  3. #16


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    I have no intention of reading a book based on mathematical fallacies. Michael Shackleford says it well: "This piece of garbage disgusts me. The entire book is an explanation of a worthless betting system. Norman Wattenberger has specifically shown that the system put forth is no better than basic strategy. Frank Scoblete should be embarrassed for writing the forward."

    You said: "
    I will never lose 4 in a row anyway."
    I say: "Bullshit."

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    This is exactly why I dont bother to even learn to COUNT! You can be the best card counter in the world and still LOSE!
    This is also true with basic strategy. If you are winning it is variance not you sterling betting system.

    To be effective counting requires a bankroll sufficient to withstand the variance and, most importantly, the intelligence to understand the math/statistics of the game. If you lack these, you will be doomed.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Of course flawless BS is what I do as well as offensive/defensive interaction *and* I have fun playing the game and dont have to WORK by unnecessarily stressing and counting every single card that comes out only to lose my ass like many other counters have!
    By chance did you acquire this flawless basic strategy from the late John Patrick's book?

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    the odds of winning/losing 10 in a row are about 1:10000, I'd say I defined the odds pretty good, don't you?
    You are 100% mistaken.

    Your chances of winning a random hand is far below 50%

    Your chances of winning X hands in succession is remote

    ONLY if you specify IN ADVANCE which set of hands you

    are referring to. If you play tens of thousands of hands

    you will OFTEN lose or win many consecutive hands.

    I once played a deeply dealt 6 deck shoe games where

    I won or pushed every hand. However, I have also played

    shoes where I lost more hands in a row than I can remember.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    I have no intention of reading a book based on mathematical fallacies. Michael Shackleford says it well: "This piece of garbage disgusts me. The entire book is an explanation of a worthless betting system. Norman Wattenberger has specifically shown that the system put forth is no better than basic strategy. Frank Scoblete should be embarrassed for writing the forward."

    You said: "
    I will never lose 4 in a row anyway."
    I say: "Bullshit."
    Because I quit after 4 straight losses.... one of the most powerful tools I've implemented from Walter Thomason.

  8. #21


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    And you likely never lose your first hand in your next session - to make five straight....

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Because I quit after 4 straight losses.... one of the most powerful tools I've implemented from Walter Thomason.
    Perhaps the first time in the history of this forum that this utter asshole and quack's name has ever been mentioned. Possibly one of the dumbest blackjack authors in the history of the game.

    Do us a favor, please, and find someone else as your muse.

    Don

  10. #23


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Because I quit after 4 straight losses.... one of the most powerful tools I've implemented from Walter Thomason.
    Tool.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Perhaps the first time in the history of this forum that this utter asshole and quack's name has ever been mentioned. Possibly one of the dumbest blackjack authors in the history of the game.

    Do us a favor, please, and find someone else as your muse.

    Don
    How is he dumb if because of him I am ahead significantly in my blackjack career? Don't try to hate just because you dont like progressive systems because even though the many counters on this forum may not like them, I am LIVING PROOF that they *do* work!

    As I said, no one will play MILLIONS OF BLACKJACK HANDS.... so as far as I'm concerned I won't ever have to worry about the "long term" !
    Last edited by BughouseMASTER; 06-12-2019 at 09:55 AM.

  12. #25


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    ^ Go get ‘em, tiger.

  13. #26


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    I make a motion to relocate this thread to the yellow zone.

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