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Thread: Been losing for a month.

  1. #1


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    Been losing for a month.

    Been a very unfortunate month. Been in a losing streak for 40 hours at the tables. (That's even excluding the cheating casino I've encountered.) I'm at a loss here. Ive Been constantly honing and sharpening my skills to make sure I have my edge. Own 4 books on AP, but back counting up to +2 even doesn't seem to be working. Limited my play to only the two best games with rules and penetration around me even. Seems as though all of my max bets attract stiffs no matter what I try to pull off. I know that I'm betting into rich shoes because the dealers and players around me are filled with natural and 20 pairs. I max bet into a shoe today at +6 and the dealer painted all players at the table and the dealer hand had 20 or a natural. Both my hands were 13 and 16. I surrendered and hit to bust. I dont really know what I'm looking to hear from you guys but thats just what it is.


    Backround:
    My bankroll started at 6k and I ran that up to 13.5k in 4 months. In the last 3 weeks I've lost 6 thousand dollars including the gaffed shoes that took away 2,000 from my bank roll.

    Don't really know if I'm looking for advice or what but here I am frustrated and throwing this out there.

    Thinking about changing my Account name to Hard16v10...

  2. #2


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    I don't play at the level you do, but I'm certain everybody's had a bad month in their time... I won nearly every time I played in April and lost nearly every time I played in May. I've just better than even so far this month. Yesterday, I got to a TC of +17 in Spanish and lost three straight hands with my max bet out as I watched naturals fall on every hand, but mine. In another shoe, twice I split aces against fives. One of those times, I drew another ace and split it again - making three hands. I lost all five.... I had my max bet out this evening and drew ace-low against a six. I drew all sorts of small cards and found myself doubling three times, putting eight times my max bet on the table. Of course, my third hit put me at 14 and the dealer drew to 18. Ouch.

  3. #3


    4 out of 4 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    40 hours is about 4000 rounds, stop whinning and keep playing. Way short of N0.

    All AP's have experienced the variance.

    6K is a pretty anemic roll and likely you are playing at an RoR higher than 20% even at a $10 game. You could go broke at less than 2 negative standard deviations!
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  4. #4


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    z
    z

    Pay heed:
    Stealth's reply (#3) is a perfect one.
    z
    z

  5. #5
    Senior Member Mickey's Avatar
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    I'm sure most of us here can relate to experiencing streaks of negative variance. I certainly can empathize with you. May better cards be in your future!

    P.S. If it makes you feel any better: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...le-of-Variance

  6. #6


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    stay calm and carry on

  7. #7


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    z
    z

    Take Heed:

    Your "Risk of Ruin" will rise (radically) as your cash bankroll shrinks.
    z
    z

  8. #8


    0 out of 5 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    This is exactly why I dont bother to even learn to COUNT! You can be the best card counter in the world and still LOSE! You can put the max bet out if the count is HEAVILY in your favor and still get shit cards just like what happened to the OP here.... nothing can prevent the other people at your table OR the dealer getting the 10-10!

    That's why I dont bother to learn counting. But... having said this I do everything but count and am actually up LIFETIME and have won and finished very high in many Blackjack tournaments all over the nation due to the strong Progression I play with 4-loss quit-point! Of course flawless BS is what I do as well as offensive/defensive interaction *and* I have fun playing the game and dont have to WORK by unnecessarily stressing and counting every single card that comes out only to lose my ass like many other counters have!

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by SkinnyBJplayer View Post
    z
    z

    Take Heed:

    Your "Risk of Ruin" will rise (radically) as your cash bankroll shrinks.
    z
    z
    addendum: i.f.f you do not resize your bets ala Kelly.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    This is exactly why I dont bother to even learn to COUNT! You can be the best card counter in the world and still LOSE! You can put the max bet out if the count is HEAVILY in your favor and still get shit cards just like what happened to the OP here.
    You can never get the count HEAVILY in your favor. Say TC=+10 if you use level 1 count, your advantage is only about 5%. Say TC=+20 if you use level 2 count, your advantage is only about 6.66%. You can lose any hand. But if you play long enough consistently (and cards come out truly random), after the same scenario you play 1000 times, your winnings will be close to the statistical expected value.

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