Cost of underbetting... and other questions.

[ZeeBabar]

There seem to be newbies and recreational counters here and hearing from the pros might help. As losing mounts, maybe a losing streak, I find myself betting even more conservatively than normal. Then, when I review a session, I wonder if I lost because I was underbetting, I dont really know the answer for sure. There are a couple of other questions as well..

For example, in a DD game, after the first round and only maybe 8 cards have been played, the running count is +3, normally, I raise my bet from the $25 minimum to $50 but when I have lost a bit of money, I stay with the $25 bet because its early in the shoe (even if the true count would be higher than 1.5). I sometimes reduce my max bet from $150 to just $100. I wonder if delaying my ramp or lowering my max bet is hurting me.

On A,7 versus 9-A, the strategy is to hit but when should one deviate from it? Should we stand when its high negative or positive? (One deviation among many I dont know).

Another one I dont know off the top is 4,4 vs 5,6. When to split, double or hit.

Answers appreciated. Please dont make it up about me.

[Midwest Player]

Zee, you had above average variance for the last few years. Maybe now you are having just some negative variance. Things tend to eventually even out and return to the mean.

If eight cards have come out, there are about 1.8 decks remaining and your have a true count of about 1.67. I would raise my bet in this situation. If you are not comfortable raising it to two units then either raise it to $30 or $40. There is no rule you have to raise it a whole unit.

By the way, are you still in the black for the year?

[BoSox]

Answers appreciated. Please dont make it up about me.

I find myself betting even more conservatively than normal. Then, when I review a session, I wonder if I lost because I was underbetting, I dont really know the answer for sure. There are a couple of other questions as well..

For example, in a DD game, after the first round and only maybe 8 cards have been played, the running count is +3, normally, I raise my bet from the $25 minimum to $50 but when I have lost a bit of money, I stay with the $25 bet because its early in the shoe (even if the true count would be higher than 1.5). I sometimes reduce my max bet from $150 to just $100. I wonder if delaying my ramp or lowering my max bet is hurting me. "?"

If you make it all about you, how the fuck are we supposed to avoid the same thing?

[BJPloppy]

Zee,

I think you probably answer your own question when you review your plays. It looks like you are trying to avoid variance but what you are describing will hurt you in the long run. There is a difference between betting conservatively and under-betting. If you are not sure that you hit your index, it is o.k. to err in the direction of the more conservative play (I am assuming reasonable deck estimation skills). If you are sure of the index and under bet because of some short term fluctuations...you do not trust the math or you are under bankrolled. Some of your other posts have indicated that you are still ahead after many hours of play. I would guess that what you do amounts to playing with very heavy cover so that if you are up say $60K maybe you should be up by $90K (these numbers are completely made up - they have no basis in reality and are here to make my point).

As far as knowing your indices, why don't you know them or practice before going out to play?

[SkinnyBJplayer]

z
z

If you are emotionally involved with your money,
your variance is reduced, and for you, that is a big benefit.
Your bankroll gains a solid measure of stability and you do
not lose sleep. As far as splits and doubles go Risk Aversion
is a good thing for you.
z
z

[ZeeBabar]

Zee, you had above average variance for the last few years. Maybe now you are having just some negative variance. Things tend to eventually even out and return to the mean.

If eight cards have come out, there are about 1.8 decks remaining and your have a true count of about 1.67. I would raise my bet in this situation. If you are not comfortable raising it to two units then either raise it to $30 or $40. There is no rule you have to raise it a whole unit.

By the way, are you still in the black for the year?

I have not bearly played as much as in previous years (needed more at home) and I am up about $1.5k by the BJ, down about $700 factoring in expenses. Its like making $0 an hour.

[Freightman]

If you are not comfortable raising it to two units then either raise it to $30 or $40. There is no rule you have to raise it a whole unit.

Very interesting comment requiring some further elaboration. First, I would encourage all to look at their sims, and betting ramps, both by full true counts, and then by half true counts. You will notice slight differences.

Therefore, accepted protocol suggests a weakness by a marginal raise of your bet when evaluating by full true counts, and not having reached the next true count threshold. Now, if evaluating by half true counts, the “marginal” raise is now acceptable.The result, in the lower positive true counts looks sub optimal. In the higher true counts, the chip up style makes you look like a progression bettor.

If you are able to interpolate your bets when using whole true counts (most players using whole true counts when simming), then you’ve added another tool to your arsenal.

[Midwest Player]

I have not bearly played as much as in previous years (needed more at home) and I am up about $1.5k by the BJ, down about $700 factoring in expenses. Its like making $0 an hour.

Zee, don't despair. In fact, it is normal to have these kind of swings. I just did a quick review of my old records. Back in 2009 at the beginning of Feb, I was up over $3,800 having won all my sessions for the year. (Yeah, 21forme back in those days a little blizzard wouldn't keep me home). However, things then went to hell and by the beginning of April I was in the red by over $2,000, but by May 1st I was back in the black by over $2,200. By mid Sep I reached my high for the year, a little over $8,200. Then things went to hell again, and I ended the year clocked out at a little more than $6,600 in the black.

It is still early in the year and anything can still happen. At this point you really don't know if you will have a winning year or not.

[Meistro123]

The cost is that you play with a lower hourly, the benefit is that you play with a lower std deviation and a lower risk of ruin. There also might be cover benefits to refusing to raise your bet while you are losing. So it is a bit of a mixed bag.

A7 vs 9 and X is always a hit. A7 v A is always a hit in a H17 game, and a hit vs A in a S17 game at a true count of +1 or lower IIRC.

[ZeeBabar]

The cost is that you play with a lower hourly, the benefit is that you play with a lower std deviation and a lower risk of ruin. There also might be cover benefits to refusing to raise your bet while you are losing. So it is a bit of a mixed bag.

A7 vs 9 and X is always a hit. A7 v A is always a hit in a H17 game, and a hit vs A in a S17 game at a true count of +1 or lower IIRC.

Thanks, Meistro.

[BoSox]

Meistroi23 wrote:
[quote A7 v A is always a hit in a H17 game, and a hit vs A in a S17 game at a true count of +1 or lower IIRC.

21forme wrote:
It's a hit at and ABOVE TC +1 in a S17 game.[/quote]

I disagree with both of you.
In a S17 game at a true count of +1 and above you would stand with your A7 vs an Ace up.

[SkinnyBJplayer]

z
aq
A virtual toss-up.

It is stand until Hi-Lo T.C. +1.5

The same number of angels in stiletto heels that can dance on the head of a pin.

[DSchles]

Why is there so much discussion of this, most of which is wrong?

BoSox is correct. For Hi-Lo, multi-deck S17, stand on A,7 vs. A if TC>=+1.

Don