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Thread: Question from a beginner

  1. #1


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    Question from a beginner

    Hi guys .. I’m new to card counting and also new to this forum .... I have done so much reading but I still have a few questions hoping someone can help me out .... The game I have here is a 6D 60% penetration, no hole card, lose all the doubles and split if dealer has blackjack, S17, DAS, DOA, split as many time, no surrounded, table limited is $15-$300 .... with $10,000 bankroll what would my bet spread be and is it worth to play? One good thing is that this casino is not a private own ... so they are not allowed to back off player ....that means I can Wong in and out crazily or I could sit there play alone and spread my bet from min to max no problem at all .... 3 hands max but no restriction about the 2 hands 2 times minimum and 3 hands 5 times minimum such thing ... I can bet whatever I want

  2. #2


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    Haven't done a sim but my gut feeling is that at just 60% pen you're gonna have a tough time whatever your spread...best of luck...

  3. #3


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    Max out at 1 x $100 or 2 x 70. Game is marginal but playable.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Max out at 1 x $100 or 2 x 70. Game is marginal but playable.
    Rather you than me ????

  5. #5


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    But it is playable ?

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Lnewwy View Post
    But it is playable ?
    Its important to provide proper info, especially in this case since there is such a huge difference between h17 and s17.

    The game is marginal for even the best players, however, for you, it’s a loser. I say that because you’re clearly inexperienced and a long way from understanding nuances of the game. Further, even with wonging on a 60% cut, you will seldom, if ever, be able to put out a max bet. This means that, generally speaking, you will be lucky to reach a true 3 count. On a play all basis, Your risk of ruin would be significant, as you will be unable to cover the cost of your waiting bets. On a Wong in/out basis, stakes mentioned, constrained by your bankroll, you will, if lucky, earn comic book money.

    Given your bankroll, lack of experience and other factors, you need to find a game with a far better cut.

  7. #7


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    I dont agree , if you can wong in/out any time ,you can beat the game for sure . The main probem is how long will you be able to do that ,which s the more important factor here. Another very important point is can you cover your expense and still build a bankroll with such a low hourly win rate?

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    I dont agree , if you can wong in/out any time ,you can beat the game for sure . The main probem is how long will you be able to do that ,which s the more important factor here. Another very important point is can you cover your expense and still build a bankroll with such a low hourly win rate?
    Constrained by bankroll considerations as is the OP, and assuming he will not take a Hail Mary approach, he will if lucky, make 10 Wong in bets per hour, etc etc etc, further assuming the typical house with 2 min tables, usually full, which further reduces his maybe 10 bets per hour down to, let’s say 5, constrained by his lack of experience and table savvy, I think comic book reimbursement is a reasonable hypothesis.

    His no surrounding comment was supposed to be no surrender, coupled by a bitty cut. He might see a max bet every 10 hours or so.........maybe. He has no wiggle room.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Constrained by bankroll considerations as is the OP, and assuming he will not take a Hail Mary approach, he will if lucky, make 10 Wong in bets per hour, etc etc etc, further assuming the typical house with 2 min tables, usually full, which further reduces his maybe 10 bets per hour down to, let’s say 5, constrained by his lack of experience and table savvy, I think comic book reimbursement is a reasonable hypothesis.

    His no surrounding comment was supposed to be no surrender, coupled by a bitty cut. He might see a max bet every 10 hours or so.........maybe. He has no wiggle room.
    Since I’m waiting for car to be serviced, and have nothing better to do, back of the envelope off the top of my head, ENHC rules with h17 and no surrender probably has a house edge of .7. This means close to true 2 fir break even play, assuming he knows what he’s doing.

    Full table at 50 hands per hour yielding let’s say 5 hands per hour at true 3, and let’s be generous at an approx full Kelly bet of if $50, yielding action of $250 per hour at 1/2 of 1%, yields about $1.25 per hour. A; hour or 2 if plsy buys a comic book.

    And that’s with a heavy ROR and not accounting for variance.

  10. #10


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    It's pretty hard to overcome that pen - and I'd expect that if you Wong so heavily that you never play against a negative expectation, you'll find the cut getting even worse if they can't back you off.

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