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Thread: Gut-wrenching

  1. #1


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    Gut-wrenching

    I am wondering how many of you out there have suffered a loss comparable to mine in a period of 50-100 hours - and how you would deal with it?
    Since March 31 I have played about 73 hours of blackjack and suffered a gut-wrenching loss of slightly more than five standard deviations.
    Something like this has you seriously worried that you are doing something wrong but I believe I have staked correctly in relation to my bankroll and that this is simply a statistical aberration.
    Earlier in my blackjack career I would probably have taken a break of a week or two to get over such a psychologically draining downswing but now I simply plough on confident that I will overcome this serious assault on my bankroll.

  2. #2


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    Admitting you're not cheated,one of the things to look at is maybe you overestimate your EV. This could happen as the result of a mistake in evaluation or by playing less rounds per hour that you thought at first. Can you show us the sims you did for the game(s) you're playing?
    G Man

  3. #3


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by jacquesblack View Post
    I am wondering how many of you out there have suffered a loss comparable to mine in a period of 50-100 hours - and how you would deal with it?
    Since March 31 I have played about 73 hours of blackjack and suffered a gut-wrenching loss of slightly more than five standard deviations.
    Something like this has you seriously worried that you are doing something wrong but I believe I have staked correctly in relation to my bankroll and that this is simply a statistical aberration.
    Earlier in my blackjack career I would probably have taken a break of a week or two to get over such a psychologically draining downswing but now I simply plough on confident that I will overcome this serious assault on my bankroll.
    I think you should take a break. I am not questioning your game, just that we are not machines. Continuing on without a break affects your health, it gets you burnt out. You may recover the money but your love for the game, the casino, the profession gets damaged in ways you don't see.

  4. #4


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Mathematically, such nasty spells are going to happen from time to time... All the authors I have read talk about dealing with losing streaks - some lasting months. They suggest two things: 1. Verifying your calculations and strategy - just in case. 2. Taking a break (days? weeks?) so that you enter your next session rested, relaxed, and ready to play at the top of your ability.

  5. #5


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    Gut-wrenching really depends on the level of play. A huge loss at the red chip level isn't too bad, but at the black chip level it is really gut-wrenching. I suggest downsize your bets to see if it turns around. Also make sure you somehow didn't invert the count.
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 04-26-2019 at 10:46 AM.

  6. #6


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    Some people will call "stop loss" is voodoo but I think human brain is not made of silicon chips. I would take a break to refill my BR and sharpening my skill on sim. I have my hat off to those who have nerve of steel. The more you lost the more depress and errors it becomes. My 2 cents

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Would a "stop loss" be voodoo if it were based on 1, 2, or 3 standards of deviation (units) per shoe? My thought is that if you have lost 3 times the normal variance in a particular shoe you should cut your losses and walk...or (if it is not voodo) would it be better to quit after losing 1 standard of deviation?
    Question: My math tells me that a reason for a high number of losses in a shoe could be an extraordinary number of low cards coming out early, leaving the remainder of the shoe with a very favorable count. Would you not trust your count and play accordingly?

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Would a "stop loss" be voodoo if it were based on 1, 2, or 3 standards of deviation (units) per shoe? My thought is that if you have lost 3 times the normal variance in a particular shoe you should cut your losses and walk...or (if it is not voodo) would it be better to quit after losing 1 standard of deviation?
    One shoe is way to short of a sample to quit because you lost 1,2 or 3 SD.Look at it this way, you bet $100 at 1% advantage (standard deviation is $115), you split to 3 hands and double two of these, you have $500 riding on this hand. Dealer make 21 in 3 cards and you lost $500 instead of winning say $5. You are already at 4.3 standard deviation.... What are you doing now....quit?
    G Man

  9. #9


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    Don's BJA3 has a full chapter on this, the ODP (Optimal Departure Point)
    G Man

  10. #10


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    Angry

    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    Admitting you're not cheated,one of the things to look at is maybe you overestimate your EV. This could happen as the result of a mistake in evaluation or by playing less rounds per hour that you thought at first. Can you show us the sims you did for the game(s) you're playing?

    For most of this loss I was playing a 4d game with penetration varying between one and 1.6 decks cut off. My spread was one hand of 5 to two hands of 80 or 90. Also played some 6d with the same spread and one-deck cut-off with all dealers. This was ENHC with das, doa, rsa and no insurance. I averaged about 100 rounds per hour. According to sims EV is 25-28 ph and sd is about 135 for the 6d game and 145 for the 4d. I lost 4.1k in 73 hours

  11. #11


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    Something is clearly wrong here. You CAN'T have an EV of 25-28 per hour with a SD of only 135, that would be a c-score of 342 for a ENHC and NI game. Impossible. You probably mean 135 PER HAND or 1350 per hour which is a very bad game.Can you clarify please?
    G Man

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by jacquesblack View Post
    According to sims EV is 25-28 ph and sd is about 135 for the 6d game and 145 for the 4d. I lost 4.1k in 73 hours
    EV 25-28 per hand or per hour?

  13. #13


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    Are you crazy??? 25-28 per hand with the games and spread he announces....
    G Man

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