See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 15

Thread: What are your "ploppyisms"?

  1. #1


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    What are your "ploppyisms"?

    OK, this isn't for the pros out there. I know, they've been crushing it since day 1, great variance right from the start. They maybe encountered their negative variance later on, after they've seen they can beat the game. And I certainly don't believe in everything I'm listing below. Some it is just anecdotal evidence with many too many coincidences. There's a few which I may believe a bit. But for those who are relatively new, or went thru some struggles early on, what did you notice that surprised you? What happened but wasn't supposed to according to most of the books out there?

    Here's a few from me:

    1. Neutral and smallish negative counts are NOT death. I try to Wong out at negative 2; I've seen too many negative ones turn around quickly. Know the indices; you have small or minimum bets out there anyways. Granted, the upside is limited, but IMO the TC of 0 and -1 aren't going to make you poor. And it may keep you at a table which produces a much better shoe following the shuffle.

    2. There are some days, for whatever reason, in which the dealer draws to 20 on about 75% of the hands. And they draw some 3 to 5 card 21s as well. There is no logic to this, and it shouldn't happen, but it does. And there's other days where their card distribution appears completely normal. I don't believe in "hot dealers" or "hot tables". But I am a bit paranoid about possibly being cheated. There have been instances where I've been hesitant to raise my bet as much as I should because after seeing the dealer getting 20 after 20 after 20, it made me gun shy. But what is really odd is that it seems to become apparent early on and stays that way. Its either "normal" or one of THOSE days. Card clumping?

    3. Even during one of these insane runs by the dealer, I'm surprised how little they draw to blackjack. If one is supposed to mathematically get blackjack about once for every 21 hands, I would guess its more like one in 35 to 40 hands for the dealer. This brings me to point 4.

    4. When I get insurance, it rarely works. I generally ignore the ploppies but it is irritating when they shake their head after I ask for insurance and the dealer gets a non-face card. I've been playing for about a year and a half, so there could be some sample size issues here. I get the concept and follow the process; the outcomes just have not been what they should be.

    5. When the dealer has an ace as his/her upcard or hole card, they win at least 75% of the time. I would love to see actual numbers on it. If someone tells me its 54%, I will not believe it. I saw it did lose today. Once. Look for it next time you play. If you don't have a 20 or 21, forget it. You are beaten.

    6. This is an odd one that is purely anecdotal and silly; when a dealer is showing a 10, they seemingly never have a 3 or 4 for their hole card. Obviously, they often have a ten. And sometimes, they will even have the dreaded 5 or 6. When counting a table, there's quite a few hands that "cancel out". Player A will have a Queen and a 4, Player B will have a King and a 5, you have a Jack and a 3. You see that when you count and many player hands cancel out. I guess that's how I noticed this oddity, which is likely not real at all.

    7. In the previous 100 hours I've played, I've clearly had worse results as the counts got more positive. It's not SUPPOSED to be that way. But there are times where the count creeps up, and just doesn't come down. And likewise, I've had negative counts where I've told myself I will Wong out once I lose two hands in a row.....and it doesn't happen as the count just keeps going down as I (along with others) are recipients of the face cards. Clumping?

    OK, so which ones do I believe, or partially believe? Numbers 1 and 5. Number 7 unfortunately, has been true, at least for the last 100 hours I've played.
    Last edited by DoubleDownSoft21; 05-05-2019 at 06:36 PM.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    One more: can 8 deck shoes be beaten? I went thru all of my results and the 8 deck shoe results were especially bad. I know the house edge is a little higher, but it seems much higher. I've even had bad 8 deck results where the rules were seemingly good (dealer stands on soft 17 and surrender allowed).

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    OK, this isn't for the pros out there. I know, they've been crushing it since day 1, great variance right from the start. They maybe encountered their negative variance later on, after they've seen they can beat the game. And I certainly don't believe in everything I'm listing below. Some it is just anecdotal evidence with many too many coincidences. There's a few which I may believe a bit. But for those who are relatively new, or went thru some struggles early on, what did you notice that surprised you? What happened but wasn't supposed to according to most of the books out there?

    1. Neutral and smallish negative counts are NOT death. I try to Wong out at negative 2; I've seen too many negative ones turn around quickly. Know the indices; you have small or minimum bets out there anyways. Granted, the upside is limited, but IMO the TC of 0 and -1 aren't going to make you poor. And it may keep you at a table which produces a much better shoe following the shuffle.

    2. There are some days, for whatever reason, in which the dealer draws to 20 on about 75% of the hands. And they draw some 3 to 5 card 21s as well. There is no logic to this, and it shouldn't happen, but it does. And there's other days where their card distribution appears completely normal. I don't believe in "hot dealers" or "hot tables". But I am a bit paranoid about possibly being cheated. There have been instances where I've been hesitant to raise my bet as much as I should because after seeing the dealer getting 20 after 20 after 20, it made me gun shy. But what is really odd is that it seems to become apparent early on and stays that way. Its either "normal" or one of THOSE days. Card clumping?

    3. Even during one of these insane runs by the dealer, I'm surprised how little they draw to blackjack. If one is supposed to mathematically get blackjack about once for every 21 hands, I would guess its more like one in 35 to 40 hands for the dealer. This brings me to point 4.

    4. When I get insurance, it rarely works. I generally ignore the ploppies but it is irritating when they shake their head after I ask for insurance and the dealer gets a non-face card. I've been playing for about a year and a half, so there could be some sample size issues here. I get the concept and follow the process; the outcomes just have not been what they should be.

    5. When the dealer has an ace as his/her upcard or hole card, they win at least 75% of the time. I would love to see actual numbers on it. If someone tells me its 54%, I will not believe it. I saw it did lose today. Once. Look for it next time you play. If you don't have a 20 or 21, forget it. You are beaten.

    6. This is an odd one that is purely anecdotal and silly; when a dealer is showing a 10, they seemingly never have a 3 or 4 for their hole card. Obviously, they often have a ten. And sometimes, they will even have the dreaded 5 or 6. When counting a table, there's quite a few hands that "cancel out". Player A will have a Queen and a 4, Player B will have a King and a 5, you have a Jack and a 3. You see that when you count and many player hands cancel out. I guess that's how I noticed this oddity, which is likely not real at all.

    7. In the previous 100 hours I've played, I've clearly had worse results as the counts got more positive. It's not SUPPOSED to be that way. But there are times where the count creeps up, and just doesn't come down. And likewise, I've had negative counts where I've told myself I will Wong out once I lose two hands in a row.....and it doesn't happen as the count just keeps going down as I (along with others) are recipients of the face cards. Clumping?

    OK, so which ones do I believe, or partially believe? Numbers 1 and 5. Number 7 unfortunately, has been true, at least for the last 100 hours I've played.
    Regards your points.

    1. I agree. I dont consider wonging out till a deck and a half have been played. At that point, if its TC-2 or worse, I wong out.

    2. I agree but think its just variance. I lost $1200 today in a positive shoe while playing 2 hands. TC reached +4, I had 2 hands of $100 each and lost both. Hit an A7 vs a 10 up and had 19 on the other hand, lost to a 20. Next hand, got a 16 and a 9,2 against a 10 which I doubled, lost that one too to a dealer 17. Another round, TC+5, had $150 each on two hands (min $25 table, 6 deck) and the dealer had a BJ. Just one of those days.

    3. I seem to experience the opposite. I have had dealer have BJ on consecutive rounds a number of times, have heard of dealers having BJ 3-4 consecutive hands.

    4. Yes the ploppies grin when you lose but its worth it when you insure a 13 against an Ace with a count of TC+6 or greater, a $175 bet out, the ploppies groan as the game is delayed while the dealer figures out the insurance amount and you place the insurance bet, maybe lose $250+ and the dealer has a BJ and they lose theior bets, you win yours. Problem is that the pit is searching your face to see if you are a counter or an idiot for insuring a 13.

    5. True and its why I hit 16's against a dealer Ace.

    6. I hate it that when yhou bust hitting a 15 or 16 only gto have the dealer have a bust card too.

    7. Thank God, I have not had a 100 hours straight losing streak.

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    This thread should move to the paid forum. So much valuable insights to be posted for free.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Should definitely be moved and made into a stickie, probably not the paid forum tho.

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Hsiaodi View Post
    Should definitely be moved and made into a stickie, probably not the paid forum tho.
    I guess in your glass house, you never have losing streaks.

  7. #7


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    What are your "ploppyisms"?

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    I guess in your glass house, you never have losing streaks.
    Of course I have. When I lose three hands in a row, I stripe all the way down and start my good luck Himalayan chant. Four, I frog leap around the table five time. Five hands, here’s the extreme and usually fix my losing streak, I find the true north howl at the top of my lungs while reciting pi to the 56th digit.

    If I follow your suggestions, will I have better luck? Usually I get kick out after my three hand losing ritual.....
    Last edited by Hsiaodi; 05-06-2019 at 09:57 AM.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Seems you have brought up all the bad memories and not the good ones. Where are the observations where you got blackjack 4 times in a row? I think your summary is selective memory, it’s fine though I get it as well.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    My only ploppyism is that I still struggle playing with idiots that stand stiff hands vs 7 and/or hit stiff hands vs 5,6....

    Just yesterday I joined a table at my usual store, one asian lady first base, an old man 2 spots 3rd base and I was in the middle. I have a strong preference for first base since I tend to peek the burn card many times and gauge the remaining decks better from the discard tray.

    Anyhow, the TC skyrockets to +4 then +5 ... all the way to +6 and I lost 6 hands in a row with big bets. My inner ploppy told me it was the asian lady standing her 15vs 7 and me taking the bust card that should've been hers. Anyway, my pro card counter logic prevailed and I kept pressing and won my last 2 hands of the shoe at TC+6 16x spread... I was able to erode the earlier bad streak and won 5 betting units on top.

    I still struggle to play with ploppies, but I've been learning its mostly due to decreasing hands per hour than anything else. Also after close to 1500 career hours, TC +5 shoes are so rare that I've lately built the stones to play even with ploppies at the table to forK the power bets out.

    Just remember the idiots pay our EV...

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    OK, this isn't for the pros out there. I know, they've been crushing it since day 1, great variance right from the start. They maybe encountered their negative variance later on, after they've seen they can beat the game. And I certainly don't believe in everything I'm listing below. Some it is just anecdotal evidence with many too many coincidences. There's a few which I may believe a bit. But for those who are relatively new, or went thru some struggles early on, what did you notice that surprised you? What happened but wasn't supposed to according to most of the books out there?

    Here's a few from me:

    1. Neutral and smallish negative counts are NOT death. I try to Wong out at negative 2; I've seen too many negative ones turn around quickly. Know the indices; you have small or minimum bets out there anyways. Granted, the upside is limited, but IMO the TC of 0 and -1 aren't going to make you poor. And it may keep you at a table which produces a much better shoe following the shuffle.

    2. There are some days, for whatever reason, in which the dealer draws to 20 on about 75% of the hands. And they draw some 3 to 5 card 21s as well. There is no logic to this, and it shouldn't happen, but it does. And there's other days where their card distribution appears completely normal. I don't believe in "hot dealers" or "hot tables". But I am a bit paranoid about possibly being cheated. There have been instances where I've been hesitant to raise my bet as much as I should because after seeing the dealer getting 20 after 20 after 20, it made me gun shy. But what is really odd is that it seems to become apparent early on and stays that way. Its either "normal" or one of THOSE days. Card clumping?

    3. Even during one of these insane runs by the dealer, I'm surprised how little they draw to blackjack. If one is supposed to mathematically get blackjack about once for every 21 hands, I would guess its more like one in 35 to 40 hands for the dealer. This brings me to point 4.

    4. When I get insurance, it rarely works. I generally ignore the ploppies but it is irritating when they shake their head after I ask for insurance and the dealer gets a non-face card. I've been playing for about a year and a half, so there could be some sample size issues here. I get the concept and follow the process; the outcomes just have not been what they should be.

    5. When the dealer has an ace as his/her upcard or hole card, they win at least 75% of the time. I would love to see actual numbers on it. If someone tells me its 54%, I will not believe it. I saw it did lose today. Once. Look for it next time you play. If you don't have a 20 or 21, forget it. You are beaten.

    6. This is an odd one that is purely anecdotal and silly; when a dealer is showing a 10, they seemingly never have a 3 or 4 for their hole card. Obviously, they often have a ten. And sometimes, they will even have the dreaded 5 or 6. When counting a table, there's quite a few hands that "cancel out". Player A will have a Queen and a 4, Player B will have a King and a 5, you have a Jack and a 3. You see that when you count and many player hands cancel out. I guess that's how I noticed this oddity, which is likely not real at all.

    7. In the previous 100 hours I've played, I've clearly had worse results as the counts got more positive. It's not SUPPOSED to be that way. But there are times where the count creeps up, and just doesn't come down. And likewise, I've had negative counts where I've told myself I will Wong out once I lose two hands in a row.....and it doesn't happen as the count just keeps going down as I (along with others) are recipients of the face cards. Clumping?

    OK, so which ones do I believe, or partially believe? Numbers 1 and 5. Number 7 unfortunately, has been true, at least for the last 100 hours I've played.
    1. I'm hanging in there as long as there's enough cards left to possibly have the count be favorable. I've seen it change so quickly and have had very strong finishes to shoes because of being patient.

    2. That's part of the game. There's times when you'll get all the twenties and pull the 21's from bad hands.

    3. I've seen dealers go on runs with numerous blackjacks. There's times where it's Ace up every couple hands with the dealer offering insurance. It stinks. Again, just part of the game. It's awesome when you're getting those aces and a couple blackjacks when the count is high and your bet is big.

    4. I hate taking the insurance but I trust the math and do it. It's the worst when you're sitting on a crappy hand with no chance of winning, take the insurance and dealer doesn't have it, but feels pretty good when you get your money back with that same crappy hand. If the count is that high, I'm just happy for the opportunity to take advantage of it and put it behind me.

    5. Feels like it sometimes but it's not true over time. The only thing that up card does is determines your play.


    7. Expecting to win when the count is good is the toughest thing because your edge is still very small. You can do everything right, have a great count and get murdered. The emotional part is the hardest for me at these times. Keep putting the large bets out there and get stuck with a 14 vs face card over and over again.. my last 100 plus hours is definitely in the red. At first I couldn't lose and now I don't feel like I can win. The psychological swings are tough.

    As for 8 decks, that's all I've played. I'd love to play something else but nothing's close. I know variance is greater. I hunt for dealers that give more penetration. They're instructed two decks but some will be around one and some are closer to 2.5 to 3. I've seen them get crap for it by the pit and I've seen my dealers with good penetration change.

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    I don't believe in "hot dealers"... I've clearly had worse results as the counts got more positive
    But I believe in good dealer/s who give good pen and deal fast or sloppy to expose the cards. Counter makes or lost most when count is high with double and split and high bets.
    Last edited by cc12b; 05-06-2019 at 01:58 PM.

  12. #12


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If this was the first thread I read when I found this forum I'd never have come back.

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    +1

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Basic Strategy question regarding "soft" and "hard" hands
    By Letangs in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 73
    Last Post: 08-22-2018, 07:02 AM
  2. The "Sting" vs "Prevailing Wisdom": Limit on Number of Double Downs?
    By SteinMeister in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 08-14-2018, 03:29 PM
  3. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 01-12-2018, 02:41 PM
  4. Replies: 3
    Last Post: 10-15-2015, 11:37 AM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-29-2015, 08:44 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.