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Thread: Raising your bet quickly?

  1. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Who needs a sim? The cost in terms of expectation for a $300 bet in a game with a 0.5% house edge is a whopping $1.5. A small price to pay if it increases your longevity.
    LMFAO....we, obviously don't play thE same game.

    GOOD LUCK

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Who needs a sim? The cost in terms of expectation for a $300 bet in a game with a 0.5% house edge is a whopping $1.5. A small price to pay if it increases your longevity.
    Good point. Why don't I start the shoe with a bet of $1500 since it only costs me $7.50? Starbucks costs more, right?

    That should really fool them.

  3. #16


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    There are obviously many different approaches to cover and trying to fool them. I don't think putting out a big bet at the end of a shoe is the right way to go, even if you do continue with the big bet into the new shoe. You don't want them to see something strange and then review your play. At that point, they are at the very minimum going to be suspicious, even if you keep betting in a fresh shoe. Don't give them anything to look at!!! Bet big off the top so when/if they see you betting big again later, they don't care, because that's what you were betting when you started playing -- why should they care?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    I’m curious how those of you who do this professionally might handle this scenario:

    You are playing through a shoe that is staying right around a neutral count until you are down to about you last two hands. You’ve been betting the table minimum and been slowly losing money. There is zero heat. Then, in one hand, a slew of low cards come out pushing the count to about six above neutral. You figure you have either one or two more hands in the shoe. Do you suddenly put up your max bet, planning to vacate thereafter? Are you more conservative and only modestly increase your bet? Etc. You have been at this casino for maybe 90 minutes and this is the first time any shoe has become favorable. You want to be able to come back to this casino in the near future.
    I wouldn't make a plan of avoiding late bets of a given size without simulating that approach and deciding on it in advance.

    If my plan, based on simulations, were to avoid betting counts late in a shoe, I would very likely plan to exit all shoes at the point it was too late for me to be willing to bet. If my plan were to bet at a reduced rate when late counts emerge, I would simulate that.

    If my general strategy were to bet sub-optimally in order to preserve a casino for subsequent play that would again be sub-optimal, I would worry.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Mucous View Post
    If my general strategy were to bet sub-optimally in order to preserve a casino for subsequent play that would again be sub-optimal, I would worry.
    Tough to say what exactly is optimal. I'd rather get 100 hours at $25-2x$400 than 0 hours at $5-2x$1,000. The latter might be optimal, but the former is worth more money. I prefer money, if we're being honest.

    I'd rather give up $5 now and get $100 later. Some would rather take the $5 now.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    z
    I would risk enough to get back to even
    z
    NOW I understand why this character is berated more than any other poster here in this forum.
    That is de facto evidence of compulsive gambling; I note where he fails to mention his feelings
    if he loses his final bet(s)which is approximately as likely as winning those bets. Also, he is also
    implying that he will wager ALL of his remaining money earmarked for that session if losing enough.
    In infer that if he is losing most of what he has bought in for he has no compunctions about reaching
    into his pocket and buying in for a relatively large amount when at the end of the shoe, prompting the
    pit critter to call surveillance when he colors up and/or leaves, so that he can be 86'd upon his return.

    If he is not striving toward [at least a modest level of] expert play, then why does he post here?
    It occurs to me that his presence here does not help a newbie to play BJ better than he already does.
    z

  7. #20


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    z
    I think that the comment by RCJH re: Sharky's reaction is on point.
    Let's say you are playing BJ at a $5 to $500 table. You want to put
    the pit critter at ease. You're aware that your bet-spread will be
    scrutinized. You decide to spread $20 to $100 because the table
    conditions are very good. So is your skill level. You very much want
    to preserve the "welcome mat." You do not need to bet $100 and have
    Table Max" called out. Bet 1/2 of the table max. You bet $50. What is
    the cost to you? The house edge varies, but assuming a double deck
    H17 RSA game, it is taken to be 0.35%; meaning that your (long-term)
    "cost" is $0.70. That is a reasonable price to pay, as your winning the
    hand will be a welcome event, and even losing the hand will give you the
    "green light' to spread from $10 to $50 without heat - at least for awhile.
    z
    z

  8. #21


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    This happened to me last night. Neutral or negative shoes for 90 minutes. A shoe finally got good with a few hands left. I was betting the minimum and went to three and then four units. I didn’t back off the bets because I waited all night and was leaving after anyway. I started getting looks from the pit. So, it’s very possible to get the attention of the pit for ramping bets up quickly. I would take your chips and take a break after those shoes. Take the heat off you.

  9. #22


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    During one of my backoffs in the past I was told they noticed what I was doing because I would ramp bets up very quickly. Since then I don’t ever bump up more than a parlay or reduce a bet by more than half on the next hand.

    If I’m playing a shoe and the count skyrockets at the end, as much as it hurts to not bet the farm I just stick to the not more than a parlay strategy. The exception is if I announce I’m leaving and want to play a big bet as my last hand.

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkinnyBJplayer View Post
    z
    I think that the comment by RCJH re: Sharky's reaction is on point.
    ....You want to put....the pit critter at ease. You're aware that your bet-spread will be
    scrutinized. ...z
    z
    ...and what part of the OP's comment of "zero heat" do you not understand???....go ahead...change the rules to suit

    that's the problem w/ commenting here....the reading comprehension is really pathetic...folks don't know the difference between "and", and "or", either (someone foolishly commenting that you need >25% pen AND LS to play 8D???....I never heard anything so absurd, from someone I had respected, no less)

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    ...and what part of the OP's comment of "zero heat" do you not understand???....go ahead...change the rules to suit

    that's the problem w/ commenting here....the reading comprehension is really pathetic...folks don't know the difference between "and", and "or", either (someone foolishly commenting that you need >25% pen AND LS to play 8D???....I never heard anything so absurd, from someone I had respected, no less)
    Please just let them think that.

  12. #25


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    ZeeBabar's babble:


    "A professional will bet optimally, which means betting the max according to his BR and ROR. It does not mean betting all the money you have on you.


    A recreational player would consider what would be tolerable if he lost the last two hand also. Pros bet for maximum dollar value. Recreational players factor in how they would feel if they won or lost. They dont want to take home with them a miserable mood that would affect the rest of the evening, still be able to give to family. I would risk enough to get back to even, consider it a wash if I win and just a little worse off if I lose, live to play another day."

    This is wrong in too many ways for me to list.
    "Betting Optimally" will severely curtail your future opportunities.
    The part about "miserable mood" is absurdly ill-advised.
    The concept of "Maximum Value" is ill-conceived.
    The beginner needs to learn about bankroll requirements,
    variance, "Risk Aversion" and related issues e.g. "Risk of Ruin."

    Now I understand why ZeeBabar is an object of derision on this website.

  13. #26


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    i think if you just get one of those runs where you get nuetral and negative counts for a while it's best just to leave
    it looks really weird if you just never raise your bet for an hour then all of the sudden start going crazy

    i mean if you're leaving anyway , you're unrated, you aren't going back to this casino for a while then who cares. if you're not in slash and burn mode then it's a different story.

    i notice i get way more attention when i get a long run of no good count, then up my bets, than i do when i get more frequent good counts and up my bets

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