Gut-wrenching

[hitthat16]

For someone that apparently hates thread clutter, you sure are adding to the supposed “problem”.

[G Man]

What a joke you are!

[hitthat16]

Ah ok.

[refinery]

Actually, G Man, my response was more nuanced than you cared to realize.

Regardless of your opinion, the thread is about losing AND miscalculation of EV and SD. Here's what YOUR OWN question was:

tell us about YOUR emotions. How much can you lose without showing any emotion?

My response shows this is a tough business where we have to handle a multitude of obstacles and losing is just one of them. Some handle it better than others, some show emotion; I have a few drinks.

As far as you addressing your question to ShipTheCookies? Well, there are lots of places you can stick that attitude. I know it's new, but this is A) a public forum and B) the Internet. You're welcome to use Private Messages if you want to talk to ShipTheCookies privately.

I want you to know I'm only being polite because I've seen you are respected by other respected members. Your comment to me that essentially amounts to "stay out of it" was unwarranted and unappreciated. It would be helpful if you showed others respect as well.

[G Man]

You simply missed my point. Jacquesblack is asking a question about what he believes to be 5 SD. We gave him some possible points he may have missed cause the numbers he provided cannot be real for the BJ game he describes. Then ShipTheCookies comes in to tell us how cool he is playing this game "If you have problems with even the slightest bit of emotion in this endeavor, you aren't properly prepared" Who cares? It's not what we are talking about. Then you join the thread to tell us how cool you too are... "I've lost $15,040 in one session without showing emotion." WHO CARES?I am not being rude, I am straight to the point. By the way, you don't have to be polite or respect me because some members of this site do. What you think of me is irrelevant. PS. If anybody can help me with "paragraph" .... I write them but for sometimes now, everything comes back together in the post.

[blue_phantom]

Its not 5 standard deviation. No where even close.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jacquesblack]

hitthat16, it's not a thread about losing, it's a thread about a miscalculation of EV and SD... However, posters like you and a hundred more on this side can make a simple thread that deserves 2-3 good answers turn into a 10 pages thread. Go back to first post by jacquesblack and try to answer... This is as simple as that! We don't need to know that you lost $15K in a session, we don't need to read about how cool ShipTheCookies is when he loses $10 or $1000

Thanks for all your help on this, guys especially G Man. Clearly I messed up my figures and my loss of over 4k in about 75 hours is about 1.5 sd and really nothing out of the ordinary.

[G Man]

My pleasure!

[SkinnyBJplayer]

z
Embrace the Z-Scores.

https://statistics.laerd.com/statist...rd-score-2.php

Z Table:

Find values on the left of the mean in this negative Z score table. Table entries for z represent the area under the bell curve to the left of z. Negative scores in the z-table correspond to the values which are less than the mean.

https://statistics.laerd.com/statist...rd-score-2.php

[SkinnyBJplayer]

I guess that that was way "over the top.

T M I L O L

I will blame that last gin & tonic sending me to Wiki

Maybe the admin' should delete my post #38 if it is inappropriate.

[RS]

You can also use the following (IMO easier) because it’s more specific:

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...%5E2)%2F2)++du

The (-2) is the z-score. Change that number only. EG: If you run at +3 SD’s, then make that (3). You can also divide 1 by the output to find the 1-in-X chance of it occurring.

0.02275 might not initially make sense or seem too likely, but if you do 1/0.02275 and the result is 43.9558, then it makes more sense IMO to see that event had about a 1-in-44 chance of occurring.

[SkinnyBJplayer]

z
Is the O.P. certain about 5 standard deviations?
I doubt that his number crunching is correct here.
Not a personal attack folks. We all make errors.
Why does nobody use a table of Z-Score instead
of S.DS.'s? I must be missing something in my
math education.
z

[Stealth]

I have played about 73 hours of blackjack and suffered a gut-wrenching loss of slightly more than five standard deviations.

Statistical aberrations happen way before 5 standard deviations. I would revisit my calculations as 5X SD is less likely than you getting struck by lightning and hit by an asteroid concurrently.

Next, 73 hours is not enough time to make a judgement about anything blackjack other than an observation about where you are in comparison to a expected result that is accurate.

If the heat is too much, get out of the kitchen.