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Thread: Jeopardy

  1. #1


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    Jeopardy

    Anyone following this Jeopardy story? I believe his name is James Holzauer, and he's a professional sports bettor from Naperville, IL. He's CRUSHING Jeopardy. Over $1 million in winnings. His keys? He's extremely fast with the buzzer, but he has a great understanding of knowing exactly how much to bet, and he has no problem risking big sums. I heard he spent quite a bit of time practicing with the buzzer to ensure optimal quickness. About a year ago, I was listening to a sports betting podcast and the host was talking about Jeopardy......how the contestants were brilliant, but most were absolutely clueless in game theory and profit maximization. It took an AP (sports bettor, in this case) to show how its done.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Anyone following this Jeopardy story? I believe his name is James Holzauer, and he's a professional sports bettor from Naperville, IL. He's CRUSHING Jeopardy. Over $1 million in winnings. His keys? He's extremely fast with the buzzer, but he has a great understanding of knowing exactly how much to bet, and he has no problem risking big sums. I heard he spent quite a bit of time practicing with the buzzer to ensure optimal quickness. About a year ago, I was listening to a sports betting podcast and the host was talking about Jeopardy......how the contestants were brilliant, but most were absolutely clueless in game theory and profit maximization. It took an AP (sports bettor, in this case) to show how its done.

    It's a great story. When I saw how he was performing and his background, I figured he worked on efficient betting.

  3. #3


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    Yeah the dude is a machine...it's kind of scary haha. I watched one game and a girl literally had zero attempts to even answer going into like final jeorpardy lol. A big part of his strategy is he choses all of the high dollar qeustions first...so he has more money to wager on a daily double. But sooner or later that will make him lose when he doesn't know that answer.

  4. #4


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    Even the questions I know he's already buzzed in before I can say it at home. Super smart and quick. He's impressive.

    Can you imagine getting on Jeopardy, telling your friends and family, and then seeing him? Lol...

  5. #5


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    Sportsbook @betonline_ag has set the odds at 3/2 that James Holzhauer will beat @KenJennings' $2.52 million in winnings. It also places the over/under for total consecutive wins at 74.5 (Jennings won 74.)

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    I would think under 74.5 would have some value, those two sets of lines don’t really match up with each other at all and his style leans towards maximizing winnings vs protecting streak although he starts protecting it somewhat during double jeopardy.

    However I wouldn’t trust the integrity of the lines for any reasonable sum or if they’d take it about the integrity of the lines given that there’s a two month delay in the show.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by mcallister3200 View Post
    I would think under 74.5 would have some value, those two sets of lines don’t really match up with each other at all and his style leans towards maximizing winnings vs protecting streak although he starts protecting it somewhat during double jeopardy.

    However I wouldn’t trust the integrity of the lines for any reasonable sum or if they’d take it about the integrity of the lines given that there’s a two month delay in the show.
    Agreed. He main motive is to maximize winnings. And his chances of getting tripped up with ultra aggressive play probably yields value to the under. Overs tend to be a bit overbet by the pubic anyways. They love to root "for" achievement; not against it.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by mcallister3200 View Post
    I would think under 74.5 would have some value, those two sets of lines don’t really match up with each other at all and his style leans towards maximizing winnings vs protecting streak although he starts protecting it somewhat during double jeopardy.

    However I wouldn’t trust the integrity of the lines for any reasonable sum or if they’d take it about the integrity of the lines given that there’s a two month delay in the show.
    I agree. First of all, he is averaging $75,000 per game for 15 wins. If 74.5 is the "correct" over/under, and he truly has a 50% of winning 75 games, he would have amassed well over $5 million by that point! So, the 3:2 line (he's the underdog) to beat Jennings seems incompatible with the total.

    I also agree with taking the under, but he could go way under and STILL beat Jennings's total winnings, because, at $75K a pop, it would take only 33 games to do that.

    Finally, I do think that his aggressive style will eventually be his undoing, but by that time, he will have won a mind-boggling amount. He'll lose when he wagers all on a DD and misses it and/or when he doesn't get all the DDs for himself, which is often the case. The show could "rig" things, to limit his winnings, by putting all the DDs at the bottom of the board, since they know that he always starts from the bottom up, for the very reason of trying to amass more money before he hits one of the DDs. If they put them low on the boards, there's a greater likelihood that he'd have less money when he finds one.

    I doubt that you can truly bet on this, as the event is already over, and the results are known by many people. Who would be dumb enough to accept wagers on a past event?

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I agree. First of all, he is averaging $75,000 per game for 15 wins. If 74.5 is the "correct" over/under, and he truly has a 50% of winning 75 games, he would have amassed well over $5 million by that point! So, the 3:2 line (he's the underdog) to beat Jennings seems incompatible with the total.

    I also agree with taking the under, but he could go way under and STILL beat Jennings's total winnings, because, at $75K a pop, it would take only 33 games to do that.

    Finally, I do think that his aggressive style will eventually be his undoing, but by that time, he will have won a mind-boggling amount. He'll lose when he wagers all on a DD and misses it and/or when he doesn't get all the DDs for himself, which is often the case. The show could "rig" things, to limit his winnings, by putting all the DDs at the bottom of the board, since they know that he always starts from the bottom up, for the very reason of trying to amass more money before he hits one of the DDs. If they put them low on the boards, there's a greater likelihood that he'd have less money when he finds one.

    I doubt that you can truly bet on this, as the event is already over, and the results are known by many people. Who would be dumb enough to accept wagers on a past event?

    Don
    I'm ashamed of you, Don. You know that a "big 6" accounting firm (yes I know there are no longer 6) certifies the game! The placement of daily doubles is random.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    The placement of daily doubles is random.
    If it's random, it's a weighted random, as most of the time it's the third or fourth clue down the column.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    If it's random, it's a weighted random, as most of the time it's the third or fourth clue down the column.
    Thanks. My point is I don't see a realistic chance of them changing the weighting (should one exist) based on the player because of how heavily regulated TV game shows are.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    Thanks. My point is I don't see a realistic chance of them changing the weighting (should one exist) based on the player because of how heavily regulated TV game shows are.
    Not only that, but I suspect their ratings have skyrocketed with all the publicity surrounding this guy, similar to when Jennings was on his streak.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Not only that, but I suspect their ratings have skyrocketed with all the publicity surrounding this guy, similar to when Jennings was on his streak.
    I agree. The average winning player wins just under 20k per show. He is at roughly 75k. I would think the extra 55k is worth the publicity/increased ad revenue. I haven't watched Jeopardy in years and now I tune in nightly! I know Ken Jennings run netted the show a 20% increase in viewership.

    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I agree. First of all, he is averaging $75,000 per game for 15 wins. If 74.5 is the "correct" over/under, and he truly has a 50% of winning 75 games, he would have amassed well over $5 million by that point! So, the 3:2 line (he's the underdog) to beat Jennings seems incompatible with the total.
    I was thinking this very same thing. I think its safe to say that Betonline currenty knows where the game stands. If the shows taping is 2 months behind (filming 5 shows per day, one time per week), James would be over 50 wins if he is still a contestant.

    I find this lob sited line interesting since they most certainly researched where the game currently stands. This line could be an attempt by Betonline to get heavy action on the "OVER" if they already know that James didn't reach that amount.

    I think once we know the outcome this is going to be very interesting since it could potentially expose the integrity of Betonline. Since this bet was offered yesterday, If the actual show taping where James does not win is prior to yesterday (When the lines were posted), or he lost $2.52 million prior to yesterday - This would show they almost certainly based this bet option on insider knowledge where the outcome was already known.
    Last edited by BankerCA; 04-25-2019 at 02:11 PM.

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