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Thread: Win but cannot hang on to winnings online

  1. #14


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    OP:
    I'm not an experienced blackjack player (yet), so I was not going to reply to you. However, I am a mathematician (by education and profession) and I understand the mathematics behind this game.

    1. All casino games are designed so that, in the end, the casino always wins. Some games are worse for the players than others. Blackjack is one of the "least bad" games.
    2. If you play Blackjack with perfect "Basic Strategy," the casino will have about a .5% edge (a little lower or higher depending on the specific rule set). This means that, with $100 wagers and 40 hands an hour, you will, on average be down $20. The vast majority of folks who play have no concept of "Basic Strategy" beyond a few "tips," such as doubling eleven against a six and not hitting on hard 18. As a result most folks, due to their lack of understanding of Basic Strategy are playing with a house edge around 3% (or worse). With $100 wagers and 40 hands an hour, that's losing $120/hr. I cannot claim to know where you are on this spectrum. However, if you have not memorized some charts, you are likely closer to 3% than .5%.
    3. Varying your bets can change the order in which you lose money. It cannot change the inevitable: You will lose money. Over millions of hands, the game will always approach the house edge. Always. That's math. Your betting style has no mathematical effect on your ability to win or lose. You have won in the "short term," which is common. However, it is also dangerous as it has clearly emboldened you to bet more aggressively: which is EXACTLY what the casino wants. At some point, likely sooner than later, the odds are going to bite you and it is going to hurt.
    4. What the folks on this forum know is that you can beat Blackjack (and its variants) with study, practice, and patience. After learning basic strategy, and thereby playing the casino close to even, you can take advantage of the fact that you are playing with cards (i.e. not dice) and change the odds to be in your favor.
    5. Consider: A deck has 52 cards (okay, a Spanish deck has 48). Once the ace of hearts has been played, it's gone until there is a reshuffle. If you are able to keep track of the cards that have been played, you know what cards are left to be played. When there is a disproportionate number of high cards left in the deck (or shoe), you have an advantage. By increasing your wagers when you have the advantage, you can turn the house edge around and give yourself the edge. If you can learn some adjustments to basic strategy based on the composition of the remainder of the deck/shoe, you can further play with an advantage. In some games, you can be playing with a 3% (or more) over the house!
    6. Counting cards is what will give you this advantage - and in any card game of skill (Hearts, Bridge, Spades, Poker, etc.). That's what the folks on this forum do. If you actually want to win more than you lose playing Blackjack, you need to stop what you are doing now and really learn the game from the perspective of an Advantage Player.

    Again, I am new to advantage play. However, I see what 99% of the folks around me do and know that I am already to play far better than them. I have been reading this forum the last couple of weeks (I just joined yesterday) to learn from those who have developed their skills well more than I have.

  2. #15


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    OP:
    I'm not an experienced blackjack player (yet), so I was not going to reply to you. However, I am a mathematician (by education and profession) and I understand the mathematics behind this game.

    1. All casino games are designed so that, in the end, the casino always wins. Some games are worse for the players than others. Blackjack is one of the "least bad" games.
    2. If you play Blackjack with perfect "Basic Strategy," the casino will have about a .5% edge (a little lower or higher depending on the specific rule set). This means that, with $100 wagers and 40 hands an hour, you will, on average be down $20. The vast majority of folks who play have no concept of "Basic Strategy" beyond a few "tips," such as doubling eleven against a six and not hitting on hard 18. As a result most folks, due to their lack of understanding of Basic Strategy are playing with a house edge around 3% (or worse). With $100 wagers and 40 hands an hour, that's losing $120/hr. I cannot claim to know where you are on this spectrum. However, if you have not memorized some charts, you are likely closer to 3% than .5%.
    3. Varying your bets can change the order in which you lose money. It cannot change the inevitable: You will lose money. Over millions of hands, the game will always approach the house edge. Always. That's math. Your betting style has no mathematical effect on your ability to win or lose. You have won in the "short term," which is common. However, it is also dangerous as it has clearly emboldened you to bet more aggressively: which is EXACTLY what the casino wants. At some point, likely sooner than later, the odds are going to bite you and it is going to hurt.
    4. What the folks on this forum know is that you can beat Blackjack (and its variants) with study, practice, and patience. After learning basic strategy, and thereby playing the casino close to even, you can take advantage of the fact that you are playing with cards (i.e. not dice) and change the odds to be in your favor.
    5. Consider: A deck has 52 cards (okay, a Spanish deck has 48). Once the ace of hearts has been played, it's gone until there is a reshuffle. If you are able to keep track of the cards that have been played, you know what cards are left to be played. When there is a disproportionate number of high cards left in the deck (or shoe), you have an advantage. By increasing your wagers when you have the advantage, you can turn the house edge around and give yourself the edge. If you can learn some adjustments to basic strategy based on the composition of the remainder of the deck/shoe, you can further play with an advantage. In some games, you can be playing with a 3% (or more) over the house!
    6. Counting cards is what will give you this advantage - and in any card game of skill (Hearts, Bridge, Spades, Poker, etc.). That's what the folks on this forum do. If you actually want to win more than you lose playing Blackjack, you need to stop what you are doing now and really learn the game from the perspective of an Advantage Player.

    Again, I am new to advantage play. However, I see what 99% of the folks around me do and know that I am already to play far better than them. I have been reading this forum the last couple of weeks (I just joined yesterday) to learn from those who have developed their skills well more than I have.
    With respect I think you need to read a little more before you start giving advice....

  3. #16


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    Happily. Tell me where you find folly in my thoughts so I can re-evaluate.

  4. #17


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    Happily. Tell me where you find folly in my thoughts so I can re-evaluate.
    First off, there are plenty of other ways to win at blackjack than counting and there are plenty of other games where you can be an AP and in some cases make a much greater return than in blackjack.

    So before giving everyone the benefit of your limited knowledge it may be best to wait a while and learn a little more first.

  5. #18


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    My knowledge of casinos is limited. My knowledge of math is not so much. I feel comfortable responding to posts regarding mathematical fallacies, such as chasing hot dealers.

    I never suggested that Blackjack is the only game
    That can be beaten - only that it tends to have a low house edge. I am currently learning
    To beat a variant - Spanish 21.

    I am intrigued by your statement about being an advantage player without counting cards. I familiar with looking at hole cards (which requires a careless dealer) and using comps (which I do as I’m learning, but seems very limiting). Counting does work and has struck me as the most reliable way of getting the upper hand. What am I missing?

  6. #19


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    My knowledge of casinos is limited. My knowledge of math is not so much. I feel comfortable responding to posts regarding mathematical fallacies, such as chasing hot dealers.

    I never suggested that Blackjack is the only game
    That can be beaten - only that it tends to have a low house edge. I am currently learning
    To beat a variant - Spanish 21.

    I am intrigued by your statement about being an advantage player without counting cards. I familiar with looking at hole cards (which requires a careless dealer) and using comps (which I do as I’m learning, but seems very limiting). Counting does work and has struck me as the most reliable way of getting the upper hand. What am I missing?
    If you care for longevity, I would skip the comps for now.

  7. #20


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Splitting Tens View Post
    My knowledge of casinos is limited. My knowledge of math is not so much. I feel comfortable responding to posts regarding mathematical fallacies, such as chasing hot dealers.

    I never suggested that Blackjack is the only game
    That can be beaten - only that it tends to have a low house edge. I am currently learning
    To beat a variant - Spanish 21.

    I am intrigued by your statement about being an advantage player without counting cards. I familiar with looking at hole cards (which requires a careless dealer) and using comps (which I do as I’m learning, but seems very limiting). Counting does work and has struck me as the most reliable way of getting the upper hand. What am I missing?
    He is showing off. He is talking about promotions, taking advantage of poor dealers that expose hole cards, New BJ variants that have flaws till they are eventually corrected and other inconsistent shit. Some, even if they are on a BJ forum, have a need to differentiate themself, feel superior.

    This is a BJ forum, ignore the other stuff. They are not going to share those other AP stuff. If they were making so much more from it than from BJ, WTF are they doing here (other than for their ego).

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