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Thread: If anyone cares to see what my last 70 Hours have looked like.

  1. #1


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    If anyone cares to see what my last 70 Hours have looked like.



    For some reason when I lose I mostly lose way bigger than I win. You'll see i have a few 1k to 2k loses but only two 1k wins.

    I'm up overall because I have won a nice 71% of my sessions.

    I Do implement a stop-win, because I'm trying to preserve my local joints. I've already been backed off of two of them. (One of them was for winning 1000$ over a weeks time. )
    I still have more than 10 casinos left nearby, but I'm not trying to run out anytime soon. Both of those back off were small, hole in the wall sweaty joints as well.
    Do you guys think this is a foolish notion? I do play the slash and burn style at the further locations I visit.
    You'll notice I've also learned to keep my sessions shorter.
    This 120 hours is over the past 2.5 months.

    Questions and comments welcome.
    Last edited by Obi-wan21; 04-14-2019 at 01:13 PM.

  2. #2


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    By "stop-win", do you mean that when you reach x amount of units that you quit? If so, you may be "leaving money on the table."

    Another thing: you are performing slash-and-burn at local sweat-joints? Maybe take that into consideration of why you are being backed-off?

    Overall 120 hours may mean nothing. If you are playing at packed tables, you may be getting < 100 hand/hour. Consider officiating results when you are at least 2-degrees of confidence in your results, (that is when you have played your N_0 4 times over: 4 * N_0 based on CV sim data. This should cover around 95% of the total data population.)

  3. #3


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    Nice Spreadsheet. I am curious about something. As far as your cumulative hourly totals, on a few of the entries the running hourly total doesn't match the hours played for that session added to the previous hourly total. Are you subtracting time that you may step away from the table during the sessions? (For breaks, meals, ect.)

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    By "stop-win", do you mean that when you reach x amount of units that you quit? If so, you may be "leaving money on the table."

    Another thing: you are performing slash-and-burn at local sweat-joints? Maybe take that into consideration of why you are being backed-off?

    Overall 120 hours may mean nothing. If you are playing at packed tables, you may be getting < 100 hand/hour. Consider officiating results when you are at least 2-degrees of confidence in your results, (that is when you have played your N_0 4 times over: 4 * N_0 based on CV sim data. This should cover around 95% of the total data population.)
    Actually not an exact limit, but generally if I make a good run in a short time I'll call it. Like I'll color up after a good shoe if I have just won 1,200 dollars in 45 minutes. I feel like it looks strange to win that much and have it sitting in front of you on a 5 or 10 dollar table where everyone else is betting the table min. If that doesnt happen than I will call it after about 1 to 1.5 hours and either go to the next casino or go home.

    I try to rat hole but I cant do anything about when I go on quick runs.

    I don't slash and burn locals. I only do that at the further stores now. Honestly I overestimated one places tolerances. They started sweating me even when I just had 4 black chips in my hand. All the other clientele were betting 3 and 5 dollar mins.

    The second back off was for an reason unknown to me. I had played for 20 mins here ever. I was using full cover plays and only increasing my bets after parlays. It was a small place too so maybe they just didn't like the action?

    Could you explain N_0 or point me to an explanation. Is that a degree of confidence?

    It's a number that appears in cxcv?

    Thanks in advance.

  5. #5


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Obi-wan21 View Post
    I try to rat hole but I cant do anything about when I go on quick runs.
    Maybe try not to rat-hole. The dealer, pit-boss, and manager may not see...but the EITS *might*. Consider that. Looks kinda strange to see you ramp your bets while hiding singe green/black chips here and there.

    I don't slash and burn locals. I only do that at the further stores now. Honestly I overestimated one places tolerances. They started sweating me even when I just had 4 black chips in my hand. All the other clientele were betting 3 and 5 dollar mins.

    The second back off was for an reason unknown to me. I had played for 20 mins here ever. I was using full cover plays and only increasing my bets after parlays. It was a small place too so maybe they just didn't like the action?
    Most small casinos don't take green/black that well, its seems. Unless you are a known gambler and a major loser at that, they may welcome you. Otherwise, heavy red, light green is what I would consider "pushing it", at least in my neck of the woods.

    Could you explain N_0 or point me to an explanation. Is that a degree of confidence?

    It's a number that appears in cxcv?
    N_0 is the number of rounds needed to be within 1 Standard Deviation of the mean. In this case, N_0 is when EV is equal to 1SD. Usually, this number is something like 16000 or 22000 in CVData. 1SD is a measurement of around 66.7% of the given population around the mean.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

    Blackjack Attack 3rd Ed. by Don S. covers N_0 as well as ideas of statistical analysis of blackjack results for AP's. If you have that, consider reading it tonight and into next week. If not, order it! You are missing out!

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by BankerCA View Post
    Nice Spreadsheet. I am curious about something. As far as your cumulative hourly totals, on a few of the entries the running hourly total doesn't match the hours played for that session added to the previous hourly total. Are you subtracting time that you may step away from the table during the sessions? (For breaks, meals, ect.)
    I just the reviewed earlier entries and noticed what you mean. Thanks, I've just started doing these records and am trying to be better about accuracy.

    Yes, sometimes I would put multiple casinos in the same table and then subtract travel time between them.

    ....I did notice there was a few typos, but that time number on the left is more for me to be able to remember what shift I was playing that specific casino during. For example:

    If I played xxx casino on Friday night @7pm and won hard or drew heat, than I know that next time I want to play that casino on a friday (Even if its weeks later) that I should go at 10am so that I hit a different crew.
    Last edited by Obi-wan21; 04-14-2019 at 05:36 PM.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    Maybe try not to rat-hole. The dealer, pit-boss, and manager may not see...but the EITS *might*. Consider that. Looks kinda strange to see you ramp your bets while hiding singe green/black chips here and there.
    What does one do about booking a loss in that case? In my favorite casino I've won 9 out of the last 10 visits. I can not bring myself to lose on purpose. I usually try to just keep a couple green in my left hand when picking up or placing bets, than once in my lap under the table i can just drop them in my opposite jacket pocket.

    Most small casinos don't take green/black that well, its seems. Unless you are a known gambler and a major loser at that, they may welcome you. Otherwise, heavy red, light green is what I would consider "pushing it", at least in my neck of the woods.
    Yea it was funny, so at this store the first time I won a couple black off the top. I was making conversation with the pittie about how i saw they had a DD game listed by the door. He offered to open it up for me and I said sure. So he goes and grabs a dealer and opens up this Nice empty 6 to 5 DD game for me. The whole place was super excited there was new money here. Even gave me some free play chips. I felt bad so I played on this table figuring it was fine because the min was really low... Lost most of the hands and made a big deal about losing and having to switch back to 6D. Lost a bit more of my winnings on 6D and finished the day only up by 30$. I went to a couple different casinos later that week and dumped 3,100$ in a couple days. Went Back to this small casino dropped all cover and started hitting em hard, motivated by my recent losses. Won 1.1k before being backed off. Could have tapered it out for more but I had never been backed off before this. Its funny how much they loved me when they thought I was dumb.


    N_0 is the number of rounds needed to be within 1 Standard Deviation of the mean. In this case, N_0 is when EV is equal to 1SD. Usually, this number is something like 16000 or 22000 in CVData. 1SD is a measurement of around 66.7% of the given population around the mean.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

    Blackjack Attack 3rd Ed. by Don S. covers N_0 as well as ideas of statistical analysis of blackjack results for AP's. If you have that, consider reading it tonight and into next week. If not, order it! You are missing out!
    Yea I have it. I think I skipped over the section in my first go because it didn't directly relate to my technical aspects of playing. Which is what I was developing at the time.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi-wan21 View Post
    What does one do about booking a loss in that case? In my favourite casino I've won 9 out of the last 10 visits. I can not bring myself to lose on purpose. I usually try to just keep a couple green in my left hand when picking up or placing bets, than once in my lap under the table i can just drop them in my opposite jacket pocket.
    Nothing. You can't control 'swings' (read: variance). Ever heard of "heaters"? "Coolers"? You can still be a losing player and be on a winning streak. See if you can play the part.

    Again, rat-holing is fooling no one from the Eye. If you feel your winning is going to burn you: consider shorter sessions?

    Yea it was funny, so at this store the first time I won a couple black off the top. I was making conversation with the pittie about how i saw they had a DD game listed by the door. He offered to open it up for me and I said sure. So he goes and grabs a dealer and opens up this Nice empty 6 to 5 DD game for me. The whole place was super excited there was new money here. Even gave me some free play chips. I felt bad so I played on this table figuring it was fine because the min was really low... Lost most of the hands and made a big deal about losing and having to switch back to 6D. Lost a bit more of my winnings on 6D and finished the day only up by 30$. I went to a couple different casinos later that week and dumped 3,100$ in a couple days. Went Back to this small casino dropped all cover and started hitting em hard, motivated by my recent losses. Won 1.1k before being backed off. Could have tapered it out for more but I had never been backed off before this. Its funny how much they loved me when they thought I was dumb.
    Hmmm, what was the reason for playing a 6:5 DD game? The HE is something fierce like 1.50% in favour of the casino, or something like that?


    As for your losses. Those are to be expected. Going on tilt will:
    A.) Get you barred.
    B.) Lose your advantage

    Here, you went on tilt, swore off cover play, and wore off any welcome left the casino had for you.

    Lemme tell you that I did something similar:

    I was playing at an out-of-town casino. They had a 6D H17 DAS/RSA game with decent pen. At the time, I was using Knockout. When the RC got to -6, I spread to two hands of 2 units each and ramped up one unit per running count increase. When the count went below -6, I wonged out, sitting out at the table. I watched tv while counting. When the RC got back up, wonged backed in, spread and rose again. I also was slowly rat-holing all the blacks that we coming my way. I did this about 3 shoes over a 20-30 minute run.

    I got the tap.

    I did this at another casino as well, after not learning my lesson. After the second time, I cooled off playing for some time.


    Basically, starting out, I was too aggressive with little cover play. I also camped out at the same table shoe after shoe. Same thing you are doing. I later stopped playing for a while and began looking at other methods of counting while researching methods for keeping under the radar.

    Here, Blackjack Attack will help give you some ideas.

  9. #9


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    Obi, booking losing sessions should not be too hard. When it's time, just quit a session, even if it's 10 minutes after you say down and you were down only $50. A losing session is a losing session whether you lose $50 off $5k. We often turn a losing session into a winning session by sticking around for a longer session. If you make a decision to play 40 minutes, just play 40 minutes.

  10. #10


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    In local places where you employ a "stop win" consider also having a loss limit. You don't want them to know you're bankrolled to take them on.

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