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Thread: Wonging exit strategy setting for CVCX

  1. #21


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    @ Dog Hand

    Thank you for the kind words.

    Q1. Wong out 18 percent of the time in the first deck, but I used a forced shuffle when the lowest stop count was reached in the series being tested and that seems low, so I'll have to redo that without the forced shuffle.

    Q2. I'd have to sim each scenario, but I suspect the ODPs will change.

    Q3. <-3 $10, -3 and -2 $25, -1 and 0 $50, 1 and 2 $75, 3 and 4 $100, 5 and 6 $125, 7 and 8 $150, 9 and 10 $175, 11 and > $200.

    I'll run a sim re: Q1 without a forced shuffle and sim your scenario's before working on the Wong Ins since you had only two.
    Last edited by Wave; 05-10-2019 at 10:33 AM.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  2. #22


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    I just noticed that several times in this thread I incorrectly stated IRC = 0...it should be IRC = -20.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  3. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    <snip>Wong out 18 percent of the time in the first deck, but I used a forced shuffle when the lowest stop count was reached in the series being tested and that seems low, so I'll have to redo that without the forced shuffle.<snip>
    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    I just noticed that several times in this thread I incorrectly stated IRC = 0...it should be IRC = -20.
    Wave,

    Wait... So you wong out of the first shoe when the RC falls from the IRC of -20 to a value of -24? So, for example, if the first round heads up is XX vs. XX, you then wong out? This seems very fast, yet your results show you leaving the first shoe only 18% of the time?

    Dog Hand

  4. #24


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    I did say I would redo that sim without a forced shuffle when the lowest stop count in the series was being tested...because 18 percent sounded low...and the sim has been running since yesterday. It just finished and it shows that you would exit in the first deck 36.5 percent of the time. -24 with an IRC of -20 is just over TKO -.5. And yes, that XX v XX would mean you hit the stop count...and that is how I play. Yes, I get some odd looks from dealers sometimes, but that is the way I play. I'm not there to make them happy, I'm there to get the $$$. Before I had the sims with a 10B sample size I was leaving at -23!

    I'm going to start on your two scenarios in a bit.
    Last edited by Wave; 05-11-2019 at 01:13 PM.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  5. #25


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    The Decks 2-5 +99 scenario is a losing proposition even in the rare instance (2 percent of the time) you would get to -3 (IRC -20) or better in the first deck. This intuitively makes sense since you are choosing not to play past the first deck and the best chances we have as counters to see increased player advantage is later in the shoe.

    The Decks 2-5 -99 scenario is currently approximately half way completed and now -23 is the ODP with an IRC of -20.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  6. #26


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    @ Dog Hand

    With over 10B hands played, the ODP in the first deck with remaining 5 decks set at -99 is -24 with an IRC of -20.
    Last edited by Wave; 05-13-2019 at 09:14 AM.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  7. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    @ Dog Hand

    With over 10B hands played, the ODP in the first deck with remaining 5 decks set at -99 is -24 with an IRC of -20.
    Thanks again for posting all the work you're putting in. I think I had read somewhere else that a shoe that goes negative early, is unlikely to turn into a profitable situation for us. This really helps not only confirm that, but has taken all that guesswork I was doing out.

  8. #28


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    I think you'll like the next series of sims I am working on. I want to answer the question of which is better, using ODPs to Wong out and search for a new table, or using them to Wong out but stay on the table and Wong in if the count rises above the ODP. I'm pretty sure the answer will be, "it depends"...there will be a wait time between finding a new shoe that will determine which is better and I'd like to find that time. I estimate that if you can find a new shoe in less than 5 minutes, then probably searching for the new shoe would be the better option; if it takes more than 10 minutes to find a new shoe, then probably staying on the table and Wonging in and out would be the better option. I think it would be good to know the answer to this question in order to apply the better option based on casino conditions.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  9. #29


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    Wondering if the BJA3 chapter on optimal departure is something you're not familiar with.

    Don

  10. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Wondering if the BJA3 chapter on optimal departure is something you're not familiar with.

    Don
    G Man referred me to it a few days ago. However, the data is for S17 and Hi Lo; I am using REKO 6 Deck Full and a H17 game for sims, it is the most common game in my area. The data from my sims do not exactly correlate with the data in BJA3 re: ODP with Hi Lo and S17; they indicate ODPs slightly sooner than TC -1 (generally between -.5 and -.75 TKO, but following the same pattern for tolerating less disadvantage for later decks in the shoe) and the sims are producing one ODP per deck instead of multiples as are listed in the S17 Tables. I do not know if this is due to using a RC (possibly producing a more acute measure than TC) or due to EOR for 7s, or the increased house advantage due to the different rules, or all in combination, but there are slight differences...and you did say "You either do it right or you don't do it at all."...so I thought I'd better do some sims instead of assuming the BJA3 data for S17 Hi Lo was correct for REKO 6 Deck Full and the H17 game.
    Last edited by Wave; 05-15-2019 at 12:17 PM.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

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