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Thread: Why bother doubling?

  1. #21
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    No, actually that's not the correct answer. The advantage of doubling versus not doubling must be taken into account. For example, here's a chart:

    chassss.jpg
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

  2. #22


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    Don't confuse him with the facts, Norm! :-)

    Don

  3. #23


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    You fellas own casino stocks? Noticeable u take positions favorable to casinos… liker follow the bj rules blindly (bs)… and trust the automatic shuflers…
    You mus have good retirements J

  4. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    You people are retarded. The simple answer to the OP's question is:

    WHEN YOU DOUBLE YOU HAVE THE ADVANTAGE AND THEREFORE WILL WIN MORE THEN 50% OF THE TIME!

    You people are too damn wordy. get to the damn point for Pete's Sake!!!!!!

    No, for doubling down it is not sufficient that the chance of winning the hand is more than 50 percent.
    You also have to compare the winning chance when doubling to the winning chance without doubling.
    In the end, the expectation value (EV) decides whether to double or not.

    An example: Suppose the chances for doubling in certain situation (such as 11 vs. dealer 6) are

    win: 70 percent, push: 10 percent, loss: 20 percent

    If you bet 100 dollars per hand and this situation occurs 10 times, and you double down every time,
    then

    you win 7 times 200 dollars = 1400 dollars
    you lose 2 times 200 dollars = 400 dollars
    you push 1 time (= 0 dollars, nothing changes)

    so in the end you gain 1400 minus 400 = 1000 dollars.


    Suppose the chances for NOT doubling (just hitting) in the same situation are

    win: 80 percent, push: 10 percent, loss: 10 percent

    If you again bet 100 dollars per hand and the situation occurs 10 times,
    and you hit every time, then

    you win 8 times 100 dollars = 800 dollars
    you lose 1 time 100 dollars = 100 dollars
    you push 1 time (nothing changes)

    so in the end you gain 800 minus 100 = 700 dollars.


    For both decisions, the chance of winning is greater than 50 percent.
    But despite winning fewer hands when doubling (70 compared to 80 percent),
    doubling down earns more money because every win is worth twice as much.


    Now suppose the chance of winning when doubling is only 60 percent (not 70),
    the push is again 10 percent, and the chance of losing is 30 percent (not 10).
    Then

    you win 6 times 200 dollars = 1200 dollars
    you lose 3 times 200 dollars = 600 dollars
    you push 1 time (nothing changes)

    so in the end you gain 1200 minus 600 dollars = 600 dollars,
    which is less than the 700 dollars you would have gained when hitting.

    Again, for both decisions, the chance of winning is greater than 50 percent.
    But in this case, hitting would be better than doubling down,
    because it generates more net profit.

  5. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by mirageman View Post
    Well, my questions were as stated. I can see how odds are better for winning the HAND by hitting as opposed to doubling. Now as for the money, I think yes I do have a different goal for now. I don't want to bring a large amount of cash to a casino and find myself doubling it all away. I'd rather have a better chance of winning a non-doubled bet than a lower chance of winning a doubled bet. If I build up a decent amount of winnings, maybe I'll be less stingy and DD at that point. But that's another matter. I wouldn't quit unless I start hating it. I barely started. I'll be content if I win some here and there.

    Hmmm. I thought house edge was EXACTLY what you say it has nothing whatsoever to do with...well, what you are mathematically EXPECTED to win or lose anyway.. Thanks all!
    You have not learned basic strategy if you prefer not to double. Your edge is dependant on taking the best long term view, which means doubling when appropriate, which you aren’t. Don’t bother with indices until you get the blinders off.

    Pay attention to post 3 and Schlesinger’s comments.

  6. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Pay attention to post 3 and Schlesinger’s comments.
    If he had paid attention all the way back then, this thread wouldn't be 26 posts long!

    Don

  7. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    If he had paid attention all the way back then, this thread wouldn't be 26 posts long!

    Don
    We can push for 100. After all, didn’t bjanalyst thread get to 1000 - and THAT was dribble.

  8. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    We can push for 100. After all, didn’t bjanalyst thread get to 1000 - and THAT was dribble.
    No, that was drivel! :-)

    Don

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