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No, actually that's not the correct answer. The advantage of doubling versus not doubling must be taken into account. For example, here's a chart:

chassss.jpg

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Don't confuse him with the facts, Norm! :-)

Don

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You fellas own casino stocks? Noticeable u take positions favorable to casinos… liker follow the bj rules blindly (bs)… and trust the automatic shuflers…
You mus have good retirements J

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Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER
You people are retarded. The simple answer to the OP's question is:

WHEN YOU DOUBLE YOU HAVE THE ADVANTAGE AND THEREFORE WILL WIN MORE THEN 50% OF THE TIME!

You people are too damn wordy. get to the damn point for Pete's Sake!!!!!!

No, for doubling down it is not sufficient that the chance of winning the hand is more than 50 percent.
You also have to compare the winning chance when doubling to the winning chance without doubling.
In the end, the expectation value (EV) decides whether to double or not.

An example: Suppose the chances for doubling in certain situation (such as 11 vs. dealer 6) are

win: 70 percent, push: 10 percent, loss: 20 percent

If you bet 100 dollars per hand and this situation occurs 10 times, and you double down every time,
then

you win 7 times 200 dollars = 1400 dollars
you lose 2 times 200 dollars = 400 dollars
you push 1 time (= 0 dollars, nothing changes)

so in the end you gain 1400 minus 400 = 1000 dollars.

Suppose the chances for NOT doubling (just hitting) in the same situation are

win: 80 percent, push: 10 percent, loss: 10 percent

If you again bet 100 dollars per hand and the situation occurs 10 times,
and you hit every time, then

you win 8 times 100 dollars = 800 dollars
you lose 1 time 100 dollars = 100 dollars
you push 1 time (nothing changes)

so in the end you gain 800 minus 100 = 700 dollars.

For both decisions, the chance of winning is greater than 50 percent.
But despite winning fewer hands when doubling (70 compared to 80 percent),
doubling down earns more money because every win is worth twice as much.

Now suppose the chance of winning when doubling is only 60 percent (not 70),
the push is again 10 percent, and the chance of losing is 30 percent (not 10).
Then

you win 6 times 200 dollars = 1200 dollars
you lose 3 times 200 dollars = 600 dollars
you push 1 time (nothing changes)

so in the end you gain 1200 minus 600 dollars = 600 dollars,
which is less than the 700 dollars you would have gained when hitting.

Again, for both decisions, the chance of winning is greater than 50 percent.
But in this case, hitting would be better than doubling down,
because it generates more net profit.

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Originally Posted by mirageman
Well, my questions were as stated. I can see how odds are better for winning the HAND by hitting as opposed to doubling. Now as for the money, I think yes I do have a different goal for now. I don't want to bring a large amount of cash to a casino and find myself doubling it all away. I'd rather have a better chance of winning a non-doubled bet than a lower chance of winning a doubled bet. If I build up a decent amount of winnings, maybe I'll be less stingy and DD at that point. But that's another matter. I wouldn't quit unless I start hating it. I barely started. I'll be content if I win some here and there.

Hmmm. I thought house edge was EXACTLY what you say it has nothing whatsoever to do with...well, what you are mathematically EXPECTED to win or lose anyway.. Thanks all!
You have not learned basic strategy if you prefer not to double. Your edge is dependant on taking the best long term view, which means doubling when appropriate, which you aren’t. Don’t bother with indices until you get the blinders off.

Pay attention to post 3 and Schlesinger’s comments.

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Originally Posted by Freightman
Pay attention to post 3 and Schlesinger’s comments.
If he had paid attention all the way back then, this thread wouldn't be 26 posts long!

Don

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Originally Posted by DSchles
If he had paid attention all the way back then, this thread wouldn't be 26 posts long!

Don
We can push for 100. After all, didn’t bjanalyst thread get to 1000 - and THAT was dribble.

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Originally Posted by Freightman
We can push for 100. After all, didn’t bjanalyst thread get to 1000 - and THAT was dribble.
No, that was drivel! :-)

Don

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Thinking doubling is your regular bet size when you have good hand e.g. 11, 10.,
before every game, you don’t know the cards, which is risky, so you reduce your bet by half.

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Originally Posted by mirageman
Yes, the winning of the hand alone is what I was questioning. I do realize there is more money to be made eventually with doubling.

Hmmm...be not offended by my ignorance, but me winning more hands by not doubling should equate to a lower house edge, right? Like this lady at the end of this clip!

My best advice is to learn when you need to deviate from basic strategy. If you follow basic strategy and you double 11 when the count is low your costing yourself money. You will most likely get a low card and watch the dealer get several low cards ending up with a 17+...( if you’re playing low counts....) it’s always best to keep the count it will aid you on every decision you make playing.

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