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Thread: Why bother doubling?

  1. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by mirageman View Post
    Well, my questions were as stated. I can see how odds are better for winning the HAND by hitting as opposed to doubling. Now as for the money, I think yes I do have a different goal for now. I don't want to bring a large amount of cash to a casino and find myself doubling it all away. I'd rather have a better chance of winning a non-doubled bet than a lower chance of winning a doubled bet. If I build up a decent amount of winnings, maybe I'll be less stingy and DD at that point. But that's another matter. I wouldn't quit unless I start hating it. I barely started. I'll be content if I win some here and there.

    Hmmm. I thought house edge was EXACTLY what you say it has nothing whatsoever to do with...well, what you are mathematically EXPECTED to win or lose anyway.. Thanks all!
    You need to realize that BS was created by mathematicians and is regularly validated with powerful simulation software. You're more than welcome to deviate from BS, but you can't come back and complain that you're playing a losing game. BS gives you the best chance. Not the best chance of winning any one hand, but the best chance, dollar for dollar, of losing as little as possible. Without the powerful doubles to make up for other weak hands/losses, you're giving up money.

  2. #12


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    Yes I see that now. I thought basic strategy only had to do with the odds of winning the hands alone, I didn't think it had to do with money.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirageman View Post
    Yes I see that now. I thought basic strategy only had to do with the odds of winning the hands alone, I didn't think it had to do with money.
    When was the last time you gambled for ego?

  4. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by mirageman View Post
    Now as for the money, I think yes I do have a different goal for now. I don't want to bring a large amount of cash to a casino and find myself doubling it all away. I'd rather have a better chance of winning a non-doubled bet than a lower chance of winning a doubled bet. If I build up a decent amount of winnings, maybe I'll be less stingy and DD at that point. But that's another matter.
    in the long run you are guaranteed to lose more money if you do not double when appropriate. Crazy plays work for one day or one session, but at the end of the month you'll be broke. Appropriate doubling is the way to earn more money, and lose less money.

  5. #15


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    Without doubling, you'll be lowering risk and variance but also adding to the house edge. In the short run, your money may last longer, but in the long run, it will run out sooner. Perhaps a compromise where you at least do the real good doubles like 11 vs. 6 and skip the marginal ones like A7 vs. 2?

    Maybe someone here will volunteer to rank each doubling situation by its risk/reward ratio.

  6. #16


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    Peter Griffin, who wrote "Theory of Blackjack", has a section titled 'World's Worst Blackjack Player' where he quantifies the penalty a player will face for certain ill-begotten plays. The penalty for never doubling down is 1.6%. So if you are begin as a perfect basic strategy player where the casino typically has a .5% edge over you, then by never doubling down, you have just quadrupled the casino's edge against you!

    If you are counting cards, there are counts where it is correct to do as you say, to hit rather than double. But without this knowledge, your best chances are to follow Basic to the letter.

  7. #17


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    Sometimes doubling down and only taking 1 small card will give the dealer the next card to bust.. when if instead of doubling you take the 2nd card that made you bust instead of the dealer..

    I personally will not double if my wager is already on the higher end

  8. #18


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I nominate this thread for the disadvantage forum.

  9. #19


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    I nominate this thread for the disadvantage forum.
    Second the motion. Either turn it yellow, or end it. The lunatics are beginning to run the asylum.

    Don

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