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Thread: At what point do you cash out?

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    I disagree...many APs use stop counts and wong out because it optimizes the AP's time (time has value) by giving them an opportunity to find a better shoe and also reduces ROR.

    Using session $ win stops also has value if they keep an AP "off the radar" and adds longevity (again, time has value) to an AP's ability to play at a specific house.
    OK, I get it. Technically you’re right. The same is true for the ploppy. I’m sure there’s an optimumal time for them to quit to maximize comps for their time playing.

    I was looking at it from the broader definition of “quit”. There is not an optimum time for either the poppy or AP to quit.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    you answer does not take into account the fact that the OP described himself as a recreational gambleryou are suggesting that there can be no entertainment value from for example playing BJ with basic strategy and ceding only a small edge to the housenot everybody who plays BJ with a negative expectation is destroying themselvesthe vast majority, probably around 98% of all gamblers, do not get seriously hurt financially by the small losses they takeyes, he's more likely than not to end up negative so what? if he's enjoyed himself as millions dopeople who love scuba diving end up negative in their financials.should they stop scuba diving?there's a great irony in APs looking down on or ridiculing those who don't play with an edge although I'm not saying that was done in this threadeven though it wasn't done in this thread it's done fairly oftensometimes I even wonder if APs see the ironythe irony is this:casinos are not going to deal beatable BJ games if only skilled APs show up at their tablesmaybe the recreational gamblers should be greatly appreciated by APs
    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    the best thing for the OP to do would be to leave this forum and try to find somewhere he can get answers to his questions without having people address him in a condescending manner
    Thanks Drunk. I must say I was slightly taken aback at the palpable (sarcastic and blunt) tone of some of the other replies , but I suppose I asked a question on a public forum, so hey ho. As you suggest, I agree I'm better off posting this question in a general travellers forum such as the T ri p Advisor LV forum to get some ideas from more recreational gamblers who are in it for the enjoyment and table atmosphere.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Philster, since you are trying to be realistic in attempting to find out what a good gain is, you should also ask yourself what you consider is a good loss. No one asked you these questions can you afford to take some defeats in accordance with your betting patterns? Speaking of which do you vary your bet sizes? If you do why? Do you believe in betting trends? If you do, you got this idea right out of your head fast.
    Bosox, one of my rules is not to gamble more than I can afford to lose, not to chase losses etc. I only play about once or twice a month, and obviously winning AND losses are a part of gambling. Starting with 100 and getting up to, say 140 sounds like a good time to cash out and put the gain aside and still play with the 100 later on if one wishes to, but that is subjective. To answer your question, I normally start at mins of 5, but I do sometimes bet 10, and even sometimes 15 or 20, depending on how the game is going. I want to be able to play as many hands as possible and be able to split and DAS. But I’d say an hour or so is about much time as I’d want to spend at a BJ table, anyway. I sometimes play online for free and it is interesting how you can start with a 100 and get to 160, 170 or even more. Obv there are losses too.
    Last edited by Philster; 04-05-2019 at 12:57 PM.

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    OK, I get it. Technically you’re right. The same is true for the ploppy. I’m sure there’s an optimumal time for them to quit to maximize comps for their time playing. I was looking at it from the broader definition of “quit”. There is not an optimum time for either the poppy or AP to quit.
    Ploppy? Really? (Yes, I'm aware of the sardonic tone of that term). Maybe you should spend a bit more time refining your manners and a bit less on BJ.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Philster View Post
    Ploppy? Really? (Yes, I'm aware of the sardonic tone of that term). Maybe you should spend a bit more time refining your manners and a bit less on BJ.
    Don't take it up. It's just BJ jargon...
    I've been criticised on this forum million times.
    Who cares...

    Sent from my SM-J730F using Tapatalk

  5. #31


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    Ok, Ferenc11, thx : - )

  6. #32


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    Philster - Here's reality:

    You are playing a losing game. If you enjoy playing, so be it. If you play once in your life and quit while you are up, you will be a lifetime winner. However, the math of the game gives the casino the advantage, which means the longer you play, the more likely your results will approach theoretical, and you will lose. Short term, anything can happen. Long story, short, play until you've had enough. If you are losing and you chase it to garner a win, you are getting closer to long term and will still be a loser.

    While some people here are being very blunt, reality is reality. You can't win long term and it doesn't matter when you stop a "session" if you're going to play again in the future. There are no secret winning strategies (other than card counting, but those aren't secret) and no progressions or betting patterns predicated on the results of the previous hand. A negative expectation game is still a negative expectation game.

    I wonder if we can stretch this out to 900 posts?

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Philster - Here's reality:You are playing a losing game. If you enjoy playing, so be it. If you play once in your life and quit while you are up, you will be a lifetime winner. However, the math of the game gives the casino the advantage, which means the longer you play, the more likely your results will approach theoretical, and you will lose. Short term, anything can happen. Long story, short, play until you've had enough. If you are losing and you chase it to garner a win, you are getting closer to long term and will still be a loser.While some people here are being very blunt, reality is reality. You can't win long term and it doesn't matter when you stop a "session" if you're going to play again in the future. There are no secret winning strategies (other than card counting, but those aren't secret) and no progressions or betting patterns predicated on the results of the previous hand. A negative expectation game is still a negative expectation game.I wonder if we can stretch this out to 900 posts?
    21forme,That's fine; I'm not disputing your logic or analysis at all. Of course, long term, the math will play out in the casino's favour. After all, those huge casino 'palaces' weren't built from and don't operate from charity. I think, however, many responses are misinterpreting the question I asked, into another question altogether, which seems to be: "Can I beat the casinos at BJ using only BS in the long term?", but that's not the question I asked at all! I was asking about what would be perceived as reasonable gain for an individual session. (Very subjective, I know). Ah well.Thanks for your response, anyway.
    Last edited by Philster; 04-05-2019 at 02:27 PM.

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by Philster View Post
    I was asking about what would be perceived as reasonable gain for an individual session. (Very subjective, I know).
    So yes, obviously a very subjective answer. However, it would be my guess that if a poll was taken of Non-AP types, I would be willing to speculate if you were to take a poll and ask this question the overwhelming majority would say when "You double your money." I think this is the point where a Non-AP would say they feel "Satisfied".

    An Example:
    I would say this would be similar to a sports bet that pays even money (minus the vig). Most would say thats a "reasonable gain".
    On the other side if you were to bet on a heavy favorite say in boxing at -900, the $10 that you win per $100 most would say "not reasonable".

    Another part of this answer would come down to discipline. If you put your "reasonable gain" at $25, but don't put a stop loss when your in the negative for that session your risk/reward becomes extremely unbalanced. Just as one might say stop with a reasonable gain, they will also need to stop with a "reasonable loss". Otherwise you will experience very high "highs" and very low "lows". This will give you more of a balance.

    Most Non-AP's will take a certain amount say $200 and they will literally play until every single dollar is gone. They will never be satisfied. A reasonable Non-AP that is playing for entertainment value will usually play what they can afford/stomach.

    But ultimately only you can decide what is a "reasonable gain".
    Last edited by BankerCA; 04-05-2019 at 03:24 PM.

  9. #35
    Senior Member dharmaprija's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckster View Post
    Since you don't have an edge in the game, I think you should leave as soon as possible. If it were I, I'd walk away preemptively and not play at all.
    I concur. GAME SELECTION AND PENETRATION...make it your Mantra

  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    This is not always true. We don't count cards, play mostly CSM's, and I can guarantee you that we play with a much larger edge at the game than you do.
    I don't believe that to be the case.

  11. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by dharmaprija View Post
    GAME SELECTION AND PENETRATION...make it your Mantra
    Penetration is meaningless if one is not counting.

  12. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    You're assuming that because you've been winning you're likely to win more. Basic strategy limits your losses, but is not enough to win in the long run. You will eventually start to lose and the more you play, the more you're likely to lose, unless you're able to find an edge. Card-counting is out for you but Ship the Cookies is right that there are other edges to be found against CSM - I don't know which he has.
    Always interested in learning. Please PM details and cost &/or trade requirements.

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by Philster View Post
    Ploppy? Really? (Yes, I'm aware of the sardonic tone of that term). Maybe you should spend a bit more time refining your manners and a bit less on BJ.
    Philster, you took my post the wrong way. I definitely didn’t mean it in a demeaning way to you, poppies or APs. I meant no matter who you are, there is no correct stopping point. Several other people have made the same point.

    While Don Schlesinger criticized my comments about Don Johnson, I think they were relevent to your question. Dan Johnson was a ploppy playing basic strategy who’s only mathematically edge was the lost rebate program as long as he stopped at the right place. But Don J didn’t stop when the math said, he got an incredible winning streak, and just kept playing until the casino ran out of chips, or they wouldn’t refill his table.

    So I think Don Johnson’s advise would be if you get on a hot streak, get your bet up and keep playing until the casino runs out of chips. It’s happened before. It could happen with you. The point is you make your stopping point.

    I’m sorry if Don Schlesinger took my comments about Don Johnson as being obsessed with Don Johnson. I just thought what Don J did applied to your situation.

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