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Thread: At what point do you cash out?

  1. #1


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    At what point do you cash out?

    Hi,I was wondering at what point you decide, "Ok, I've done well here, time to quit while I'm well ahead!" ?I ask because obviously people only make piles of money from BJ in the movies. I think in the past, I may have quit prematurely because I got excited about making a small profit, so cashed out. Though there is nothing wrong with this, my recent experience makes me believe that you can hang in there and make even more.E.g. I went to a London casino yesterday with £250. They're all CSM machines here. After a while I had £330. But I thought I'd stay in and see what more I could do. I went down from there but came back up till I hit £500, doubling my input. At that point I did cash out. I put all my winnings aside and never gamble them. I have been winning quite a bit lately, always following basic strategy, splitting where possible and doubling after splits. I never take insurance. I don't do side bets either.So my question is this. So let's say you sit down for a round of BJ with a sum of say, 100 at a table with 5 minimums, for arguments sake. It doesn't matter whether £, $ or Euros, because I'm talking ratios here.Where would you cash out? After a gain of 50?, Or a gain of 100? Or would you keep going hoping to make more?I'm just trying to know where to cash out and not get greedy.Thanks.Philster.

  2. #2


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Your BR (100) is too small for the min bet. It allows a max of only 20 hands. I always chip in at least 100 min bets. I go also with normal prob rule and 3 standard deviations. If I win 4x min bet i leave that table. don’t push my luck. I move to another table and apply the same rules.

    You’re lucky doubling your BR. It wont happen often, most likely the opposite will.

  3. #3


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    What kind of voodoo is this thread?

  4. #4


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Since you don't have an edge in the game, I think you should leave as soon as possible. If it were I, I'd walk away preemptively and not play at all.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    If you're not counting, you're gambling with your bankroll. Stop it.
    This is not always true. We don't count cards, play mostly CSM's, and I can guarantee you that we play with a much larger edge at the game than you do.

  6. #6


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    But how?

  7. #7


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I quit when I'm too tired to see straight, or the nice man in the suit politely asks me to.

  8. #8


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    Exit point(s) have no effect on your average gain (loss actually).
    Last edited by skeptic; 04-04-2019 at 01:25 PM.

  9. #9


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    Thanks for the replies, but I must add (it's probably obvs) that I'm a recreational gambler. I do not use accoutrements such as algorithms, SD or other statistical methods, counting etc. I just use basic strategy and I have been winning quite a bit at various casinos with CSMs that I play at. I was in LV about 18 months ago and did quite nicely there too, playing at various casinos, again CSMs (Strip and downtown), so I'm happy to continue. I'm just trying to be realistic as to what a good gain is.
    Last edited by Philster; 04-04-2019 at 03:24 PM.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by conte543 View Post
    .... If I win 4x min bet i leave that table. don’t push my luck. ....
    Conte, are you saying that you would walk away after winning £20 (4 x $5 min bet) ??

  11. #11


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    There is no formula for when to cash out (from a winning or losing perspective) when you’re counting or just gambling. If you’re counting, the more time you play the more money you make (in the long run) and when you’re gambling, the more time you play the more money you lose (in the long run). You’ve been getting lucky with your wins but mathematically if you played for a long enough time you’d lose it all.

    Lets say I played until I made $10. I bet $5 and win, so my session lasted one hand. Now I come back to the same casino the next day and I played by the same rule as above. Now lets say it takes me 3 hands to make the $10. So far I have played 4 hands and made $20, but the time it took to make that $20 was 24 hours (because I left the casino after the first hand and came back to the casino after 24 hours). Now lets start over and say your new goal is $20 made, so you go to the casino, you play 4 hands in 2 minutes and you won your $20 in one session. Now you’ve won your $20 in 2 minutes instead of 24 hours.

    so my point is: it doesn’t matter how long your sessions are, they are all one long session, and for your long session as a gambler, you’re losing money every hour, so the less you play the better.

  12. #12


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    You're assuming that because you've been winning you're likely to win more. Basic strategy limits your losses, but is not enough to win in the long run. You will eventually start to lose and the more you play, the more you're likely to lose, unless you're able to find an edge. Card-counting is out for you but Ship the Cookies is right that there are other edges to be found against CSM - I don't know which he has.

  13. #13


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    This is not always true. We don't count cards, play mostly CSM's, and I can guarantee you that we play with a much larger edge at the game than you do.
    Does your answer have any relevance or applicability at all to what the OP asked? Do you really think he's playing with an edge?

    The only possible answer to the original question that makes the remotest sense is Buckster's: "Since you don't have an edge in the game, I think you should leave as soon as possible. If it were I, I'd walk away preemptively and not play at all." It is an answer that cannot be improved.

    Don

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