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Thread: At what point do you cash out?

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  1. #1


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    At what point do you cash out?

    Hi,I was wondering at what point you decide, "Ok, I've done well here, time to quit while I'm well ahead!" ?I ask because obviously people only make piles of money from BJ in the movies. I think in the past, I may have quit prematurely because I got excited about making a small profit, so cashed out. Though there is nothing wrong with this, my recent experience makes me believe that you can hang in there and make even more.E.g. I went to a London casino yesterday with £250. They're all CSM machines here. After a while I had £330. But I thought I'd stay in and see what more I could do. I went down from there but came back up till I hit £500, doubling my input. At that point I did cash out. I put all my winnings aside and never gamble them. I have been winning quite a bit lately, always following basic strategy, splitting where possible and doubling after splits. I never take insurance. I don't do side bets either.So my question is this. So let's say you sit down for a round of BJ with a sum of say, 100 at a table with 5 minimums, for arguments sake. It doesn't matter whether £, $ or Euros, because I'm talking ratios here.Where would you cash out? After a gain of 50?, Or a gain of 100? Or would you keep going hoping to make more?I'm just trying to know where to cash out and not get greedy.Thanks.Philster.

  2. #2


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    Your BR (100) is too small for the min bet. It allows a max of only 20 hands. I always chip in at least 100 min bets. I go also with normal prob rule and 3 standard deviations. If I win 4x min bet i leave that table. don’t push my luck. I move to another table and apply the same rules.

    You’re lucky doubling your BR. It wont happen often, most likely the opposite will.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by conte543 View Post
    .... If I win 4x min bet i leave that table. don’t push my luck. ....
    Conte, are you saying that you would walk away after winning £20 (4 x $5 min bet) ??

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Philster View Post
    Conte, are you saying that you would walk away after winning £20 (4 x $5 min bet) ??
    Sorry being late. A lot of sport punting was going on in a month's time.

    I put up a conservative figure in my post for one table. as I said I hop from table to table, 5 tables a day or so.

    I can see nobody deterred you from playing on blackjack--bad edge and all. Am I right? there are more sports and horse punters in Britain than bj players. Those two forms of gambling have negative edges larger than in bj. Sports betting is -10% at best. Still there punters who win quite a bit consistently. A guy won millions in 2017 betting on World Series (baseball). a few months mater he made millions again betting on Super bowl 2018.

    Lets say you play a bj game as bad as sports -10%. If you play 100 hands (hands not hours) you expect to win between 30 and 60 hands. the probability is 99%. So you'll have swings. Like they say gambling is win some, lose some. When I see I am winning I jump to another table or leave the casino altogether.

    I mention the size of the BR again. I must have enough to go thru at least 100 hands (not hours, time got nothing to do with probability). Many so-called APs lose quite a bit because don’t have a sufficient BR. And they don’t leave when they see they’re winning. Maybe the more APs play the more they can win; but also the more they can lose.

    Cheers.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by conte543 View Post
    Sports betting is -10% at best
    To be a break even sports better you must win 52.38% of the time (at -110)



    Quote Originally Posted by conte543 View Post
    Lets say you play a bj game as bad as sports -10%
    You would have to be a very bad blackjack player to give up 10%
    Even a "Mimic the dealer" strategy is about 5.5% for the house.
    A "No Bust" Strategy is just under 4% for the house.
    Bill Zender did a study of 7,585 hands played at 7 different locations. The average error increased the house advantage by just .83%.
    However, it would not be impossible to give the house an edge of over 10%, but these players are few and far between.

    It brings up an interesting point. Are there more Blackjack card counters or advantage sports betters?
    I'm not sure, just a guess would say its about even.
    What does everyone else think?
    Last edited by BankerCA; 04-09-2019 at 11:59 AM.

  6. #6


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    What kind of voodoo is this thread?

  7. #7


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    Since you don't have an edge in the game, I think you should leave as soon as possible. If it were I, I'd walk away preemptively and not play at all.

  8. #8


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    But how?

  9. #9


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I quit when I'm too tired to see straight, or the nice man in the suit politely asks me to.

  10. #10


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    Exit point(s) have no effect on your average gain (loss actually).
    Last edited by skeptic; 04-04-2019 at 01:25 PM.

  11. #11


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    There is no formula for when to cash out (from a winning or losing perspective) when you’re counting or just gambling. If you’re counting, the more time you play the more money you make (in the long run) and when you’re gambling, the more time you play the more money you lose (in the long run). You’ve been getting lucky with your wins but mathematically if you played for a long enough time you’d lose it all.

    Lets say I played until I made $10. I bet $5 and win, so my session lasted one hand. Now I come back to the same casino the next day and I played by the same rule as above. Now lets say it takes me 3 hands to make the $10. So far I have played 4 hands and made $20, but the time it took to make that $20 was 24 hours (because I left the casino after the first hand and came back to the casino after 24 hours). Now lets start over and say your new goal is $20 made, so you go to the casino, you play 4 hands in 2 minutes and you won your $20 in one session. Now you’ve won your $20 in 2 minutes instead of 24 hours.

    so my point is: it doesn’t matter how long your sessions are, they are all one long session, and for your long session as a gambler, you’re losing money every hour, so the less you play the better.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tetn1s View Post
    Lets say I played until I made $10. I bet $5 and win, so my session lasted one hand.

    You must have doubled down.

  13. #13


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    You're assuming that because you've been winning you're likely to win more. Basic strategy limits your losses, but is not enough to win in the long run. You will eventually start to lose and the more you play, the more you're likely to lose, unless you're able to find an edge. Card-counting is out for you but Ship the Cookies is right that there are other edges to be found against CSM - I don't know which he has.

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