Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: Special Payout Rule - What is the edge?

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Special Payout Rule - What is the edge?

    What is the edge with this payout rule involving a player surrender?

    At a local cardroom they will "round up" when paying out a surrender hand that has $.50 (fifty cents) in the payout. (They don't use quarters, fifty cent pieces, or $2.50 chips)
    The payout would be as follows:
    $5 bet = $2.50 rounds to $3
    $10 bet = $5
    $15 = $7.50 rounds to $8

    Also, It is a 6:5 game so there would be no special payout round ups on blackjacks.

    I believe this creates an advantage for the $5 flat bettor without counting. I do realize that this advantage if any is minimal. The reason I ask is here in California the player has the option to act as the bank every two hands, and then must play as a player the other two hands that they do not choose to hold the bank.
    I am only trying to find the edge while playing as a player, which would typically be 50% of time (flat betting $5) since other players generally do not elect to bank on their turn in the rotation.
    My question is not being addressed towards the banking side of play, just the hands I must play as a player. 80 hands per hour (40 banking/40 as player)

    My question is what would be the edge for a $5 flat bettor playing basic strategy with this special payout?

    I realize there are several ways to compute this.
    The 3 questions that came to mind for me:

    1. What percentage of the time does basic strategy call for a surrender?
    2. What would be the statistically correct basic strategy deviations to take advantage of the additional $.50 paid on a surrendered hand?
    3. How much additional +EV would be made on these additional playing deviations?

    I believe this special payout will take it from the negative edge to something slightly positive.


    This is a 6:5 game
    Rules: 6 decks, HS17, DAS, Resplit 4 hands, Resplit Aces, Hit split Aces, Surrender, 6:5 bj payout. I come up with a house advantage of -1.6438
    keep in mind, the money here is made on the banking hands.

    My main objective is to see if the non-banking hands can have an edge for the $5 flat basic strategy bettor without counting and what would be the proper basic strategy deviations?

    I realize this may take some work, even a rough estimate would be appreciated! Thanks!
    Last edited by BankerCA; 04-01-2019 at 03:22 PM.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I can't conceive that the rule would remotely make up for the 1.64% house edge. Proper surrender adds 0.088% in a 6-deck H17 (don't write HS17!) game. You're proposing increasing that edge by 10% (50 cents on a $5 bet). If you do that, you add just 0.0088% to the original house edge, and it becomes 0.0968%. I'm not sure that any other play(s) would now become surrenders that weren't before, but even if they would, you are orders of magnitude away from getting near 1.64%.

    Don

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You add some surrenders for $5 bets in a S17 game. 17 v T, 17 v 9, 16 v 7, 16 v 8, 15 v 9, 15 v 8, 14 v 9, 13 v T, 14 v T, 14 v A, 88 v T

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I do not believe we can simply add 10% to the proper surrender figure

    I think it will help if I simplify things. Lets assume 100 hands per hour.
    $5 per hand x 100 hands per hour = $500 action per hour x 1.6438 HE = $8.20 PER HOUR IN -EV. So the question becomes can we make up the $8.20 per hour with the additional gain of $.50 on each surrendered hand?

    If I use the .0968% as suggested above to add to the house edge of -1.6438 we get -1.6350 HE
    1.6350 multiplied by the same $500 in action is = $8.175 which takes just $.025 off of $500 in action over the course of the hour. (This would equal 20 hours of play OR 2000 hands per 1 surrender).

    Here is a more elementary way to look at it: Can we make up $8.20 in the course of 100 hands?
    17 surrenders @ $.50 a piece would reach $8.50 (Now is there 17 surrender opportunities per 100 hands? probably not. I don't know the actual number and that's why I posted this. I know there are deviations that can be made that are beneficial when receiving $3 back on a $5 bet.)


    An Example:
    Lets consider 5 surrender opportunities per 100 hands. This will gain you $2.50. if we subtract that from an -EV of $8.20 we are left with $5.70 in -EV
    $5.70 divided by $500 in action equals a house edge of -1.14
    So just from 5 surrender opportunities per 100 hands we reduce the house edge by 0.495 ( nearly a half percent )


    In addition it appears that there would be more deviations such as Hard 16 v 8, Hard 15 v 9, ect. (I do understand the value would be less than $.50 on the deviations)


    I don't know if there are enough surrender opportunities to overcome the house edge, but at the very least I know it will come close... that's why I posted it here for some insight.

    Does anyone know approximately what percentage of time a correct surrender opportunity is presented?
    Last edited by BankerCA; 04-01-2019 at 07:17 PM.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I don't have the time to do the math for you, but I can tell you how to do it, if you're you're motivated enough to slog through it. (And yes, my original proposed methodology was too simple and not the correct way to do it. Apologies.)

    Go to the BJA3 appendixes. Search for every hand (see Meistro's post above as a guideline; don't know if he has them all) where the correct play has an expectation of less than 0.40 (i.e., e.v. < 40%). These are the hands that you surrender, since you are losing $2 on $5 (40%) each time you surrender.

    Of course, certain totals, like 13, can be achieved in multiple ways, so you have to go line by line. Calculate the gain of each line separately (e.g., if e.v. is -0.42, then the gain is 2%) and then multiply that gain by the frequency of the play (e.g., 1%). The gain from that one single line is, therefore, 0.02%. Do this for every play whose e.v. is worse than -40%, and sum.

    My intuition tells me that you won't get close to 1.64%.

    Don
    Last edited by DSchles; 04-01-2019 at 08:13 PM.

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BankerCA View Post
    <snip>Also, It is a 6:5 game so there would be no special payout round ups on blackjacks.<snip>
    BankerCA,

    What is the payout for a $6 wager on a BJ? Do they round the $7.20 up to $8, or down to $7? If they round down because the "cents" is less than 50¢, will they round an $8 BJ up from $9.60 to $10?

    Dog Hand

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    What is the payout for a $6 wager on a BJ? Do they round the $7.20 up to $8, or down to $7? If they round down because the "cents" is less than 50¢, will they round an $8 BJ up from $9.60 to $10?
    Sorry, when I stated the above I was thinking of only bets in increments of $5. That was my error. There would be potential opportunities on BJ's as well. (You can wager any dollar amount between $5 and $500)

    On all payouts they only round up. They will never round down. So every time the payout has "Cents" it automatically goes up to the next dollar. (On Surrender and Blackjacks) Also your original wager can only be dollars (No cents), given this the only time there would be a rounding situation is on surrender and blackjacks since "cents" are not allowed in your original bet.

    Yes, on Blackjacks they will also round up. An $8 wager that receives a blackjack will get you $10 (Rounded up from $9.60)
    You bring up a great point on the $6 wager. Since they do round up $7.20 to $8 on a blackjack

    So at this point I would have to figure out which of the following is more beneficial:
    $6 wager taking the extra $.80 on a Blackjack
    OR
    $5 wager and hustling the extra $.50 paid on surrender

    Thanks for the input.
    Last edited by BankerCA; 04-02-2019 at 12:29 PM.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Go to the BJA3 appendixes. Search for every hand (see Meistro's post above as a guideline; don't know if he has them all) where the correct play has an expectation of less than 0.40 (i.e., e.v. < 40%). These are the hands that you surrender, since you are losing $2 on $5 (40%) each time you surrender.
    I will check this out. Thanks

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BankerCA View Post
    So at this point I would have to figure out which of the following is more beneficial:
    $6 wager taking the extra $.80 on a Blackjack
    OR
    $5 wager and hustling the extra $.50 paid on surrender
    Well the blackjack part is simple to calculate. For 6-deck games, you get an untied natural once in 21 hands. Let's round it to five times an hour. So, you'll make an extra four bucks an hour on $600 worth of action, or an increase of 0.67%.

    I'm thinking $5 surrenders might be worth a little more.

    Don

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thanks, I think I may sit down and try and figure out what the surrender would be worth and while I am at it make an adjusted Basic Strategy chart given the extra $.50 per hand.

    Ideally It would be beneficial to keep count on the hands you are playing as a player when not holding the bank (Minimal returns in a 6:5 game, but you have to sit through these hands in order to bank on your turn)

    Most card rooms will tolerate you as a banker. Will they tolerate you as a counter? I don't know. They typically don't get counters in these cardrooms due to the terrible rules. Another thing I find interesting is pit/floor wont typically "watch" a player. The majority of these card rooms do not continuously monitor the cameras. Some of the larger rooms might. They will send the floor back there to review if there is a discrepancy at the table to review the film.

    There is a member of this forum that was on "Gambling With An Edge" who talked about his experience banking baccarat, primarily for the high edge "Dragon" bet. He banked high limits for 3 months. He stated when he started playing as a player, that's when they kicked him out because they though he was a counter.

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    To me, the slight edge you might get by counting, instead of flat betting $5, just isn't worth it. I assume that what you can make banking is much greater than what your negative e.v. is from $5 flat bets with the favorable surrenders.

    Don't sweat the small stuff. The bigger picture is what you can make from banking the game at higher limits.

    Don

  12. #12


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    A similar thread, via a different "rounding up" rule.

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...with-2-50-chip

Similar Threads

  1. Any software that can analyse special rule, Dealer Push On 22 ?
    By James989 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 03-28-2018, 09:00 PM
  2. Special BJ rule - re-doubling/tripling
    By henkel in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 01-30-2017, 07:09 PM
  3. rookiego21: House edge for Special Pontoon game
    By rookiego21 in forum Computing for Counters
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 11-16-2008, 04:37 AM
  4. rookiego21: House edge for Special Pontoon game
    By rookiego21 in forum Computing for Counters
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 11-03-2007, 08:56 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.