a group of us have been playing a blackjack machine for over a year now. we have accumulated 2,015,000 hands as a group. our current net results are -1475 units.


the rules of the game are superb. im not going to name them as it could give the game away, but i ran the numbers and i am certain that with composition dependant strategy, the game shows a payback of 100.10% (yes, crazy good i know)


so, after 2 million hands, our ev is +2000 units, and we are currently at -1475 units.*


standard deviation= 1.1

variance=1.21


n0 = 1.21/(.001*.001) = 1.21 million hands


as a group, after 2,015,000 hands, we are DOWN 2.23 standard deviations.


at what point do we stop calling this just a bad run and start to question if this game is just not fair?*


NOTE- i did NOT make an error in calculating EV based on the rules of the game, and yes bj pays 3:2. based on rules, the game payback is 100.10% with a million percent certainty


i always thought that games like video poker and video blackjack had to use random cards and that the only way to change the payback % was to change the rules/pay tables. after doing some reading, ive seen people say that it IS possible to make the game unfair, however casinos in, for example, las vegas, would never operate their machines in an unfair manner, as the legal implications would consume them (plus they make enough with a fair game anyway)