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Thread: When variance Kills you

  1. #1


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    When variance Kills you

    Hi everyone,

    My blackjack adventure started 6 months ago. I was very lucky to find a group of casinos with the following rules: ENHC, S17, DAS, DOA and Full early surrender(even against an ace) and about 4,5/6 penetration. With these rules the basic strategy player has a little 0.08% advantage off the top.

    I am 22 years old now. Before starting to count cards as a "full time job" i worked 2 years in a restaurant in order to save money and build my own bankroll. During this 2 years trained myself to count cards 3 hours a day, every day. At the end of the 2 years i was able to count down a deck of 52 cards in almost 10 seconds and, the most important, i had accumulated a 20k bankroll. CVCX estimated my RoR to be 0.6% approximately and if i played every day(like i did) i could expect to win about 10k per month.

    I was determined and confident. Card counting was my life,my religion. I was ready to go.

    The first month of playing was tough. I lost 10k, half of my bankroll. It was at this point that i realized that proffesional card counting requires an exceptional self control and a lot of discipline.

    The second month was great. I won back the 10k i lost in the first month of play and i doubled my bankroll. I had a 40k bankroll. It was at this point that some casinos started to reduce the penetration to 3/6 (that is still playable with full early surrrender)

    The third, the fourth and the fifth month were stable, i won only 10k and my bankroll was 50k at that moment.

    Then, the sixth month came. In only 10 days i lost 30k(the probability of this happeningwas under 1%). At the same time, almost every casino reduced penetration to 3/6 and even 1/6 in some rare cases.

    So this is me right now, with my initial 20k bankroll and deteriorated conditions of playing. 20k is not enough to beat this game right now with 3/6 penetration(nor any blackjack game with more "regular" rules) and after 6 months of playing(900 hours) my gains are actually zero.

    Why am i writing this? Well, i am not embarassed to say that i am a little desperate. I don't know what to think anymore. I started doubting about the efficacy of card counting. I had dedicated 2 years of my life to card couting or even more. I didn't started college in order to make a living of blackjack. I really tought that i could do it with that exceptional rules.
    I guess that even if the probability of losing that much are under 1% it still can happen.

    I am in search of advice right now. I know most of you are more experienced than me. I know some of you has already lost and then won back more than me. What should i do? Continue playing, trying to win back some money and accept a higher RoR? Or quit, forget my blackjack dream, find a regular job and have a regular life for the regular person that i am. I am lost, i don't know what to think anymore

    Thanks in advance

  2. #2


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    3/6 is still fully playable with those rules

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    First of all, your ROR is always higher than what the computer spits out due to errors. Further, you obviously were doing something right bc the casinos took counter measures. Finally, why on earth would you decide to do this full time and neglect your education?

    How many rounds did you get in during these 6 months? Perhaps you haven't quite come to enough rounds. Once conditions deteriorate like the pen it's probably time to move on to better conditions. Blackjack for real money can't be done exclusively at local casinos.

    I would focus on going to school or getting a real job and doing the blackjack part time. Good luck!
    Sometimes tables were crowded and i get to play only 50 hands per hour, but some other times i was able to play alone and play more than 200 hands per hour. I would say that i played 100 hands per hour during the last 6 months.

    I decided to neglect my education beacause i was thinking i could really make a living of blackjack.

    In fact those casinos are not actually my local casinos. Some of them are very far from the others and some days i had to drive about 400 miles in order to get to the next casino. On avarage i drove about 100 miles per day.

    I think i am gonna do this. I'm going to start college and keep blackjack as a part time job

  4. #4
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    If they don't let you spread, how playable is it?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    If you are disciplined enough to adhere to your training regimen and work to build your bankroll from a source outside of a casino, you are probably disciplined enough to succeed at whatever you set your mind to.

    You also do not have to give up playing or completing your education, you can do both and many have/do. A degree will give you something to fall back on should you decide becoming a professional player is not right for you. It will also make you a more rounded person which will always help you in one way or another.

    Do not underestimate the value of front counting and back counting...with your discipline, Wonging will certainly help your game. Also do not underestimate the value of scouting and game selection, there are many games out there with better penetration, which is paramount to a counter's success. Commit to finding better penetration and playing only games that meet your standards...and maximizing your playing time by Wonging out of negative shoes. Just those two things will dramatically improve your profitability and aid in reducing the variance in your session results.

    There's nothing wrong with self re-evaluation...it's good for you in the long run.

    Hang in there.
    You are right, i was very very determined and self disciplined but now i start to doubt in myself.

    I'm surely going back to college the next year, maybe i will keep blackjack as a side income(hoping that it will be a positive income and not a net loss)

    I know the importance of wonging and backcounting and sometimes practiced it but in the biggest part of the casinos i played i was obliged to play all hands.
    I am sure there a games with better penetration out there but i am not sure that there are games with better rules. A game with 3/6 penetration and early surrender has a highest score than a game that has 5/6 penetration and regular rules

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    3/6 is still fully playable with those rules
    I know but variance will be huge and if i lost everything playing 4,5/6 i can't imagine what will happen with a penetration of 3/6

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    If they don't let you spread, how playable is it?
    Actually i am still able to use a 1-50 spread

  8. #8


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    In any case, thank you very much to everybody to yours answers. I feel a little bit better than yesterday

  9. #9


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    Stich, if it`s of any consolation to you at all, I`m in an pretty similar situation as you are. I feel for you. To say that this game can completely devastate you is, I think, an understatement. The good thing is that, if you continue to play, you`ve already seen some rough times which will only make you stronger for downswings in the future. I remember Richard Munchkin saying in a GWAE episode that he thought most of the people that continued on with it (mainly in terms of being full time was what I think he meant) were the ones that ran good in the beginning. You and I fall in the other category, as did Richard in the beginning (he said he lost for the first 200 hours I believe). The edge is very thin and as you know, things can go south in a very short amount of time. It`s not easy to endure these really bad swings by any means.

    In terms of going to school, my only advice is to think long and hard about exactly what kind of path you want to take. Don`t rush or force it. It`s not an easy thing to figure it out even if you`re only planning on working full time for a few years before going back to counting full time. So get advice from others, take online personality tests, etc., whatever you can. You really don`t want to spend a bunch of time and money to later find out you`re absolutely miserable with what career path you chose. If possible I say try to do both school and 21 if you can figure out what you want to do. Whatever you end up deciding, good luck!

  10. #10


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    Stitch, dont be stupid. You are young enough to find another career and your Bankroll is enough to get one with a much much greater chance of success. The folks here, they are like pro basketball or baseball players, and you deciding to follow in their foot steps is much like you deciding to play in the NBA after hearing from a pro players forum. You have a full life ahead of you, relationships, family and more.

    Yes, its true that Math shows you can get a 1%-2% advantage when counting cards.

    Math wins of course, the simulations show it but Math dont have to deal with hostile pit folks, dont have to deal with grumpy ploppies who will get upset if you hit that 12 against a dealer bust card no matter what the count tells you, upset if you split 10's or hit A,7. Math does not have any distractions, no cute hostesses asking you if you want a drink or leaning their boobs against you arm when they hand you your drink, Math does not get distracted with hot babes or cigarette smoke. Math does not have to deal with fatigue.

    Since you will play tired, you will forget some deviations, you will not make certain plays in deference to others at the table, you dont have an unlimited bankroll and cannot bet optimally every time and you do get distracted, have the dealer call "Checks play" or the pit guy is staring at your bets as you are the only one increasing bets. how much of that 1-2% advantage will you lose?

    If you have to travel to play, additional expenses, will incur. This means that you will have to play higher stakes and your bankroll is just not high enough. Its also possible that after all that investment, you will find that you do not have the mental fortitude to play this game. I have a $70k bankroll but I cannot handle the variance that comes with bigger bets, I just dont have it. So, I remain a recreational player.

    These guys, T3, Stealth, Bosox, etc., (forgive me if I excluded many of you)) are the equivalent of top pro players (think LeBron, Kobe etc.). Now, after 5 years, I have a much greater respect for them. Just like those pro basketball players have great physical assetts, these guys have great mental assets that you cannot see.

    Build a career, find a life and play BJ recreationally, be satisfied that it can pay for your vacation or honeymoon. Dont be fooled.




  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Math does not have any distractions, no cute hostesses asking you if you want a drink or leaning their boobs against you arm when they hand you your drink, Math does not get distracted with hot babes
    Zee, after I read your post, it almost made me want to quite my full time job and become a traveling pro. This part of your post made the AP job sound exciting.

    Also, what casinos do you go to where this happens? I think I might be playing in the wrong ones.

  12. #12


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    [QUOTE=Dbs6582;266333]Zee, after I read your post, it almost made me want to quite my full time job and become a traveling pro. This part of your post made the AP job sound exciting.

    Also, what casinos do you go to where this happens? I think I might be playing in the wrong ones.[Q

    AP 's keep their honeypot to themself but Golden Gate in Las Vegas after 7pm gets you only female dealers with giggling Boobs and walking to it on a weekend night gets a lot on your arms, lol.

  13. #13


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    [QUOTE=ZeeBabar;266343]
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    Zee, after I read your post, it almost made me want to quite my full time job and become a traveling pro. This part of your post made the AP job sound exciting.

    Also, what casinos do you go to where this happens? I think I might be playing in the wrong ones.[Q

    AP 's keep their honeypot to themself but Golden Gate in Las Vegas after 7pm gets you only female dealers with giggling Boobs and walking to it on a weekend night gets a lot on your arms, lol.
    Now that’s some valuable information. Now I know where to start my AP pro career if I ever decide to change careers.

    Whoever said Zee doesn’t make the best posts with the most valuable info doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

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