OK. I'm reasonable at maths and probability and have been able to generate a good profit over the years from BJ and algos I've been able to create to bet on Betfair. However, I know for a fact that there are plenty of people on this forum that are way more accomplished than I as far as maths is concerned, so this thing that's been vexing me for some time is aimed at them. And perhaps you.....

My mantra when creating any algo has been to look for betting 'value'. And I define 'value' as odds given which are greater than I calculate they should be. For example, in soccer, if I calculate the odds of team X winning to be 2.00 (decimal odds) but I'm offered 2.30 then I have 'value'. The fact that my calculation may be wrong is not the issue. I perceive there to be 'value'.

However, when it comes to trading I'm a bit uncertain if I can use the same logic. For example, in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market, I can trade by betting Over 2.5 goals before a goal is scored at, say 2.40, waiting for a goal when the odds may fall to 1.80 and trade out with a guaranteed profit, no matter whether the game goes over 2.5 goal or not. This is just an example of which there are many.

Would I be wrong to make the original bet if I calculated the Over 2.5 goals should have been 2.60 at the time I made the bet but there was a high probability that a goal would be scored in the next 10 minutes ?

Your views would be interesting to hear. Thanks