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Thread: Off topic. Soccer (or any other sport) trading and value

  1. #1


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    Off topic. Soccer (or any other sport) trading and value

    OK. I'm reasonable at maths and probability and have been able to generate a good profit over the years from BJ and algos I've been able to create to bet on Betfair. However, I know for a fact that there are plenty of people on this forum that are way more accomplished than I as far as maths is concerned, so this thing that's been vexing me for some time is aimed at them. And perhaps you.....

    My mantra when creating any algo has been to look for betting 'value'. And I define 'value' as odds given which are greater than I calculate they should be. For example, in soccer, if I calculate the odds of team X winning to be 2.00 (decimal odds) but I'm offered 2.30 then I have 'value'. The fact that my calculation may be wrong is not the issue. I perceive there to be 'value'.

    However, when it comes to trading I'm a bit uncertain if I can use the same logic. For example, in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market, I can trade by betting Over 2.5 goals before a goal is scored at, say 2.40, waiting for a goal when the odds may fall to 1.80 and trade out with a guaranteed profit, no matter whether the game goes over 2.5 goal or not. This is just an example of which there are many.

    Would I be wrong to make the original bet if I calculated the Over 2.5 goals should have been 2.60 at the time I made the bet but there was a high probability that a goal would be scored in the next 10 minutes ?

    Your views would be interesting to hear. Thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by ummagumma View Post

    The fact that my calculation may be wrong is not the issue. I perceive there to be 'value'.

    Your views would be interesting to hear. Thanks


    whether or not your calculation is wrong or right (long run) - reflecting your ability of lack of ability to estimate the probabilities of the outcome of a sports event - is IMO just about everything

    the math, which is usually quite simple, is IMO much less of mountain to climb

    in the examples you gave the edge you seek is quite small

    those who primarily rely on handicapping skills would normally perceive a much larger edge (although in the real world it is likely to shrink and be not as large as perceived)

    IMO if you want to beat soccer, then your best path forward is to accumulate as much knowledge as you can about the sport itself and the teams you are betting on

    many of your competitors, the other bettors, are not willing to delve deeply into the details, and/or primarily enjoy betting on their home or favorite teams - and that will be the nature of your edge

    when you have acquired this knowledge, you should become more proficient in estimating the probabilities of a particular outcome



    IMO and my experience the Mathletes are not the ones who profit well by beating sports
    it is the handicappers who accomplish this
    Last edited by drunk; 02-26-2019 at 05:16 AM.
    in America everyone has an inalienable right to express their own opinion - no matter how much of an idiot they may be

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    whether or not your calculation is wrong or right (long run) - reflecting your ability of lack of ability to estimate the probabilities of the outcome of a sports event - is IMO just about everything

    the math, which is usually quite simple, is IMO much less of mountain to climb

    in the examples you gave the edge you seek is quite small

    those who primarily rely on handicapping skills would normally perceive a much larger edge (although in the real world it is likely to shrink and be not as large as perceived)

    IMO if you want to beat soccer, then your best path forward is to accumulate as much knowledge as you can about the sport itself and the teams you are betting on

    many of your competitors, the other bettors, are not willing to delve deeply into the details, and/or primarily enjoy betting on their home or favorite teams - and that will be the nature of your edge

    when you have acquired this knowledge, you should become more proficient in estimating the probabilities of a particular outcome



    IMO and my experience the Mathletes are not the ones who profit well by beating sports
    it is the handicappers who accomplish this



    Thanks for the reply; some of which is possibly accurate but doesn't answer the quite specific logic of my question. Perhaps I didn't explain it well enough. I'll move on but thanks anyway.

  4. #4


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    Betfair is very bad now, because there are not many markets with good odds and money. I think single betting will be much profitable to your strategy.

    for single betting is very interesting blog here https://bossofbetting.com
    Last edited by crronaldo7; 04-18-2019 at 09:08 AM.

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