Advice please?

[Ldubz274]

So I started counting at the end of 2017 ... my all-time high was in September 2018, when the head build a bankroll to $40,000. Since September I've been getting since September I've been getting killed every single month ... Now i only have 15k left. now I am confused on how risk is calculated, let's say I played with a 0.0% risk of ruin for example. And i lost 25k. Now the risk would be somewhat high. How is this possible? So is there any point in resizing your beds? Because your risk should be zero, so you shouldn't need to resize your bets ever. But after hitting terrible variance, now you have risk of ruin, when originally you didn't, but after the bad variance, the chance of going through that again is the exact same oh, so is it better to resize your bet? Even though your risk was zero to begin with?

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[Meistro123]

This should be obvious, but what your bankroll used to be is irrelevant, all that matters is how big your bankroll is now. You should resize, and should have resized a long time ago. What is your present bet spread?

[Jabberwocky]

Always adhere to the 1% Rule!

[ferenc11]

Always adhere to the 1% Rule!

What do you mean by that? Do you mean that your max bet should be 1% of your total bankroll?

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[Ldubz274]

But let's say if I have a 75k bank roll with a 0.0% risk of ruin ... let's say I lose half of my bankroll, now I have a 37.5 k bank roll and a significant risk of ruin ... How is this possible? When the risk started out as 0, but after some bad variance it became significant? So that means in this situation you should not resize your bat because your risk started out as 0.0%, so there is no need to resize your bet ever because your chance of losing is 0%, this is my understanding on the matter

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[Jabberwocky]

Your max bet is tied to your effective not elective bankroll.

[RCJH]

But let's say if I have a 75k bank roll with a 0.0% risk of ruin ...

Maybe I don't understand ROR. How can you have 0% ROR?

[DSchles]

this is my understanding on the matter

Well, unfortunately, your understanding is rather poor. First of all, where are you getting zero ROR from? More importantly, it's rather clear that, if you were able to lose half your bank, your original ROR was surely a great deal more than zero.

Finally, others have already pointed out to you that your current ROR has nothing whatsoever to do with a past ROR. What's done is done. Your ROR from this moment on is whatever it is. And, if it is substantial, and you don't resize your bets, you're going to go broke. Then instead of asking how you could have substantial ROR when you started with zero, you're going to be asking how you could have lost all of your money when your original ROR was zero.

Don

[stopgambling]

0.1 % is not zero ROR , .001 % also is not zero ROR. I play to that ROR. i never think i would not lose .

[Three]

RoR is the odds you will go broke as you go forward if you never resize using your current BR and bet scheme for the conditions specified.

A RoR of 0.1% means that if there were 1000 of you starting with that BR one of you would going broke if you never resized. A 0.01% RoR means one in 10,000 of you would go broke starting from that point if you never resize your bets. Of course if that one of you that had the bad run resized his bets your actual RoR would be much less. You didn't resize your bets so now you have a large RoR if you don't resize. RoR is a snapshot of the possibilities you may experience heading forward from a particular BR. As your BR changes so does your RoR. If you play varying conditions (penetration is the big factor), use different spreads, or play different rules that affects your RoR. RoR is calculated for specific playing conditions and rules for a particular spread and BR.

As your BR shrinks and it becomes more likely you are that one that might go broke resize your BR to assure that you maintain an acceptable RoR. Try to keep your BR in an acceptable range of RoR. Know at what BR you are exiting the acceptable range and resize your bets when you BR gets at or below (or above if you can resize your bets to be more aggressive) that amount.

[DSchles]

Here's what makes zero sense in this discussion. We know that the original ROR wasn't zero, as stated, but let's suppose it was the 0.1% that is being bandied around. With a starting ROR that small, even if you did lose half your bank, as is being discussed, resulting ROR is still tiny (3.13%). Just play with Norm's risk calculators, right here on this site. Use, for example, 1000 units of bank, 1 unit won per hour and 17 s.d., as the starting input. ROR is 0.1%. Then change bank units to 500. Is the 3.13% ROR now "huge"?? Something to be mortified over?

This whole discussion makes very little sense.

Don

[Three]

The OP says he lost 62.5% of his BR, start with $40K BR has $15K BR.

[DSchles]

The OP says he lost 62.5% of his BR, start with $40K BR has $15K BR.

See post #4.

Don