Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 14 to 21 of 21

Thread: Estimating penetration

  1. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    Why would the penetration change the advantage at a given TC?
    Read up on Floating Advantage.

  2. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post
    So for example, take everything in the TC 5 bin. You`re going to get to a TC of 5 much more frequently with better pen than you will with bad pen. Therefore since you`re going to see/bet that TC more often (thus winning more overall at that TC), and over a long period of time that TC is going to be more profitable in a game with good pen than it would be in a game with bad pen.
    Your advantage at each TC goes up with deeper pen but so does the variance. Optimal bet is a function BR, RoR desired, advantage, and variance. Eliminate the former two and you have EV/variance. So for each TC bin, variance at shallower pen is reduced more than EV is reduced. More accurately the ratio between EV and variance decreases with deeper pen.

    Quote Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post
    What`s strange is that for the most part the advantage goes up while pen gets better, but there was a certain spot where as pen got better the advantage dropped a tiny bit before going up again. Why does this happen?! Can anyone explain this??
    More 20 vs 20 pushes.
    Last edited by Three; 02-12-2019 at 09:04 AM.

  3. #16


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Wait for it....

  4. #17


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    More 20 vs 20 pushes.
    No, that's not it. Maybe just an anomaly or the fact that, for each extra card of pen, the standard error for calculating the edges is larger than the changes in those edges themselves. Why would more 20 vs. 20 pushes show up in just one line and then go away?

    Don

  5. #18
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, that's not it. Maybe just an anomaly or the fact that, for each extra card of pen, the standard error for calculating the edges is larger than the changes in those edges themselves. Why would more 20 vs. 20 pushes show up in just one line and then go away?

    Don
    You are right. I started writing a different answer but got confused about a higher TC eventually decrease in advantage. My original answer was a guess that it had to do with decreased accuracy due to the exponentially increasing significance of deck estimation difference between the actual deck remaining and estimate deck remaining for data collection bins in the sim at deep pen. But I didn't have confidence that was right. I know that happens but don't see why it would reduce average advantage. I don't see the phenomena for Hiopt2/ASC so you are probably right about SE.

  6. #19


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Maybe just an anomaly or the fact that, for each extra card of pen, the standard error for calculating the edges is larger than the changes in those edges themselves.
    Thanks Don. The standard error conclusion makes complete sense, because I tried that exercise with multiple sims (my own and the archived ones) and it happened in all of them. So it can`t be an anomaly. It was a small difference, but I was curious as to what it could be.

    Thank you for your response also Three, I didn`t know all that about optimal bet.

  7. #20


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Is it better to design a bet schedule with a conservative or liberal estimate of pen? Either way you would be betting suboptimal but they both have their pros and cons. One has you underbetting your edge and the other has you overbetting your edge. Which is better?

    MJ
    If you underbet your advantage, your EV goes down. You earn more slowly.

    If you overbet your advantage, your variance and ROR go up. You can go broke more quickly.
    Last edited by RCJH; 02-13-2019 at 07:03 AM.

  8. #21


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    floating advantage is the reason for the same TC equaling a better advantage with deeper pen, but that doesn't really come into play until deep deep pen. The main reason you'd have a different ramp based on pen is because the lower the pen, the lower your overall edge is, so it would probably be recommended to have a bigger spread to overcome the smaller edge.

    Basically lower pen needs a bigger spread to beat that game, hence bigger bets at lower counts
    Last edited by CountinCanadian; 02-15-2019 at 11:17 AM.

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Similar Threads

  1. A tip re: estimating decks unplayed, etc.
    By ZenMaster_Flash in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 04-26-2018, 01:51 PM
  2. Estimating hands per hour
    By BakaFortuna in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 05-11-2017, 08:01 AM
  3. Any tips on estimating the remaining of decks
    By BlackJackMonster in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 04-08-2015, 11:27 PM
  4. Penetration
    By ferenc11 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 11-23-2014, 08:54 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.