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Thread: Estimating penetration

  1. #1


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    Estimating penetration

    Is it better to design a bet schedule with a conservative or liberal estimate of pen? Either way you would be betting suboptimal but they both have their pros and cons. One has you underbetting your edge and the other has you overbetting your edge. Which is better?

    MJ

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    I prefer conservative, but I have no info that says that is best. Themain thing is to do deck estimations as close to the way your sim does it as possible, if you are using sim results to size your bets.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Is it better to design a bet schedule with a conservative or liberal estimate of pen? Either way you would be betting suboptimal but they both have their pros and cons. One has you underbetting your edge and the other has you overbetting your edge. Which is better?

    MJ
    Why would you think that it's ever a good idea to overbet your advantage?

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Why would you think that it's ever a good idea to overbet your advantage?

    Don
    In a perfect world you wouldn't but life isn't ideal I'm afraid. Why would you ever want to underbet your advantage? Is there a lesser of the evils?

    P.S. See my response to your reply on the thread about playing metrics.

    MJ

  5. #5


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    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme. You see bigger advantages more often with better pen, but the optimal bet at those advantages wouldn't change as far as I know.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Is there a lesser of the evils?
    My answer implied as much. DON'T overbet!

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme. You see bigger advantages more often with better pen, but the optimal bet at those advantages wouldn't change as far as I know.
    As far as pen affecting betting scheme, yeah you can set it however you want to suit all the different stat numbers you want to achieve (RoR, win rate, SCORE, etc.). Pretty sure you were saying this not with CVCX specifically in mind. As far as what it`ll tell you to do though, it`ll suggest you ramp quicker the worse the pen is. For instance, when the pen gets a half deck worse on a shoe game, the advantage at each TC is of course smaller, but it`ll suggest you bet more on some of those TCs than if the pen were a half deck better (and suggest you max bet at a lower TC than if the pen were better).

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme.
    If you run sims where the only change is penetration, you'll note that your ramp up tends to be more modest when the pen is better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    If you run sims where the only change is penetration, you'll note that your ramp up tends to be more modest when the pen is better.
    Fascinating, as I've yet to sim anything.

    As for why, here is my assumption and I'd like feedback on it: with worse pen, you're able to make bigger bets at lower advantages without raising ROR because advantages (and thus big bets) occur less frequently so your exposure to big swings is reduced.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post
    when the pen gets a half deck worse on a shoe game, the advantage at each TC is of course smaller.
    Why would the penetration change the advantage at a given TC?

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme. You see bigger advantages more often with better pen, but the optimal bet at those advantages wouldn't change as far as I know.
    Not really . Ask Don. i would say at deeper pen you can bet more at the same tc usually after 4.5 deck. . I like to do it after 4.75 or very close to 5/6.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    Why would the penetration change the advantage at a given TC?

    Someone correct me if I`m wrong here... I think the advantage percentage (initial bet advantage/EV in the win/loss column) in CVCX changes a little bit when altering the pen because it`s giving you your advantage at that TC over a long period of time, not just on one random hand at that TC. So for example, take everything in the TC 5 bin. You`re going to get to a TC of 5 much more frequently with better pen than you will with bad pen. Therefore since you`re going to see/bet that TC more often (thus winning more overall at that TC), and over a long period of time that TC is going to be more profitable in a game with good pen than it would be in a game with bad pen.

    Ok, so after I typed this out I looked at that column again while changing the pen slowly to see how much it would change and how rapidly (by number of cards from 2 deck pen to 1/2 deck pen, 6 deck game). What`s strange is that for the most part the advantage goes up while pen gets better, but there was a certain spot where as pen got better the advantage dropped a tiny bit before going up again. Why does this happen?! Can anyone explain this??
    Last edited by SplitFaceDisaster; 02-11-2019 at 10:32 PM.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    If you run sims where the only change is penetration, you'll note that your ramp up tends to be more modest when the pen is better.
    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    Fascinating, as I've yet to sim anything.

    As for why, here is my assumption and I'd like feedback on it: with worse pen, you're able to make bigger bets at lower advantages without raising ROR because advantages (and thus big bets) occur less frequently so your exposure to big swings is reduced.
    Optimus Prime, I do not like any of your thinking on the topic. Starting with the word able that does not fit correctly. You need to make changes in betting patterns in games with a worse pen because you will see much less frequent the higher TC that everyone wants to see. Now for example, if you normally make $100 bet at TC+4 but because of worse pen you now make that same bet at a TC+3 "to which I am definitely NOT recommending that you do that, explain below" you just increased variance and risk. You can only base risk on the game you are actually playing. Now on playing the deeper pen game, you will see some higher TC and more betting opportunities and of course much more variance. If you are properly bankrolled AND you better be, you should welcome all of those positive EV chances that you see.

    Now back to that worse pen game, I would much rather see someone make up the difference in betting patterns on the minimum bet side "if you can" by lowering your minimum bet you will be able to keep your spread more normal.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-12-2019 at 02:24 AM.

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