Is it better to design a bet schedule with a conservative or liberal estimate of pen? Either way you would be betting suboptimal but they both have their pros and cons. One has you underbetting your edge and the other has you overbetting your edge. Which is better?
MJ
As far as pen affecting betting scheme, yeah you can set it however you want to suit all the different stat numbers you want to achieve (RoR, win rate, SCORE, etc.). Pretty sure you were saying this not with CVCX specifically in mind. As far as what it`ll tell you to do though, it`ll suggest you ramp quicker the worse the pen is. For instance, when the pen gets a half deck worse on a shoe game, the advantage at each TC is of course smaller, but it`ll suggest you bet more on some of those TCs than if the pen were a half deck better (and suggest you max bet at a lower TC than if the pen were better).Originally Posted by Optimus Prime
Someone correct me if I`m wrong here... I think the advantage percentage (initial bet advantage/EV in the win/loss column) in CVCX changes a little bit when altering the pen because it`s giving you your advantage at that TC over a long period of time, not just on one random hand at that TC. So for example, take everything in the TC 5 bin. You`re going to get to a TC of 5 much more frequently with better pen than you will with bad pen. Therefore since you`re going to see/bet that TC more often (thus winning more overall at that TC), and over a long period of time that TC is going to be more profitable in a game with good pen than it would be in a game with bad pen.
Ok, so after I typed this out I looked at that column again while changing the pen slowly to see how much it would change and how rapidly (by number of cards from 2 deck pen to 1/2 deck pen, 6 deck game). What`s strange is that for the most part the advantage goes up while pen gets better, but there was a certain spot where as pen got better the advantage dropped a tiny bit before going up again. Why does this happen?! Can anyone explain this??
Last edited by SplitFaceDisaster; 02-11-2019 at 10:32 PM.
Your advantage at each TC goes up with deeper pen but so does the variance. Optimal bet is a function BR, RoR desired, advantage, and variance. Eliminate the former two and you have EV/variance. So for each TC bin, variance at shallower pen is reduced more than EV is reduced. More accurately the ratio between EV and variance decreases with deeper pen.
More 20 vs 20 pushes.
Last edited by Three; 02-12-2019 at 09:04 AM.
No, that's not it. Maybe just an anomaly or the fact that, for each extra card of pen, the standard error for calculating the edges is larger than the changes in those edges themselves. Why would more 20 vs. 20 pushes show up in just one line and then go away?
Don
You are right. I started writing a different answer but got confused about a higher TC eventually decrease in advantage. My original answer was a guess that it had to do with decreased accuracy due to the exponentially increasing significance of deck estimation difference between the actual deck remaining and estimate deck remaining for data collection bins in the sim at deep pen. But I didn't have confidence that was right. I know that happens but don't see why it would reduce average advantage. I don't see the phenomena for Hiopt2/ASC so you are probably right about SE.
Thanks Don. The standard error conclusion makes complete sense, because I tried that exercise with multiple sims (my own and the archived ones) and it happened in all of them. So it can`t be an anomaly. It was a small difference, but I was curious as to what it could be.
Thank you for your response also Three, I didn`t know all that about optimal bet.
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