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Thread: Estimating penetration

  1. #1


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    Estimating penetration

    Is it better to design a bet schedule with a conservative or liberal estimate of pen? Either way you would be betting suboptimal but they both have their pros and cons. One has you underbetting your edge and the other has you overbetting your edge. Which is better?

    MJ

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    I prefer conservative, but I have no info that says that is best. Themain thing is to do deck estimations as close to the way your sim does it as possible, if you are using sim results to size your bets.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Is it better to design a bet schedule with a conservative or liberal estimate of pen? Either way you would be betting suboptimal but they both have their pros and cons. One has you underbetting your edge and the other has you overbetting your edge. Which is better?

    MJ
    Why would you think that it's ever a good idea to overbet your advantage?

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Why would you think that it's ever a good idea to overbet your advantage?

    Don
    In a perfect world you wouldn't but life isn't ideal I'm afraid. Why would you ever want to underbet your advantage? Is there a lesser of the evils?

    P.S. See my response to your reply on the thread about playing metrics.

    MJ

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    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme. You see bigger advantages more often with better pen, but the optimal bet at those advantages wouldn't change as far as I know.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Is there a lesser of the evils?
    My answer implied as much. DON'T overbet!

    Don

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme. You see bigger advantages more often with better pen, but the optimal bet at those advantages wouldn't change as far as I know.
    As far as pen affecting betting scheme, yeah you can set it however you want to suit all the different stat numbers you want to achieve (RoR, win rate, SCORE, etc.). Pretty sure you were saying this not with CVCX specifically in mind. As far as what it`ll tell you to do though, it`ll suggest you ramp quicker the worse the pen is. For instance, when the pen gets a half deck worse on a shoe game, the advantage at each TC is of course smaller, but it`ll suggest you bet more on some of those TCs than if the pen were a half deck better (and suggest you max bet at a lower TC than if the pen were better).

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I don't think penetration affects your betting scheme.
    If you run sims where the only change is penetration, you'll note that your ramp up tends to be more modest when the pen is better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    If you run sims where the only change is penetration, you'll note that your ramp up tends to be more modest when the pen is better.
    Fascinating, as I've yet to sim anything.

    As for why, here is my assumption and I'd like feedback on it: with worse pen, you're able to make bigger bets at lower advantages without raising ROR because advantages (and thus big bets) occur less frequently so your exposure to big swings is reduced.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post
    when the pen gets a half deck worse on a shoe game, the advantage at each TC is of course smaller.
    Why would the penetration change the advantage at a given TC?

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