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Thread: Relatively New Ap's (5yrs or less)

  1. #1


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    Relatively New Ap's (5yrs or less)

    With the way things are drying up for APs, I wonder what some of the newcomers have dealt with. If you've begun counting recently (within the last five years), your personal experience likely differs quite a bit from the senior members of the forum.

    Could you one, tell the troubles you've come upon and two, how you overcame them or eluded them, etc?

    Also, what changes have you noticed within your respective communities over the past few years? Obviously, senior members can help out with information pertaining to the recent changes in the game and their communities.

    Perhaps, this thread can weed out a few misconceptions and create gains for noobs like me!

    Thank you.

  2. #2


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I have been at it for about 5 years of part time recreational play (between 275-300 hours a year) and my conclusion is that unless you live in a place like Las Vegas or in close proximity of some 10+ casinos, it's not viable for the red chipper and low green chipper to be successful for a long career.

    Yeah, the math says we have an edge but math does not have travel expenses, math plays error free and bets optimally all the time. We cant. We make errors, get heat and can't play optimally all the time, camp out

    If you live in a place close to 5 or so local places, don't have travel expenses, you can get away for a while but eventually, they will catch you and back you off of take counter measures. If you have less than 2-3 local places, you will get backed off sooner. THen, you have to factor in more expenses, bigger bankroll, and such. Long trips away from home will catch up and burn you out. What is fun the first few years becomes less fun each year and then a grind.

    The pros here are on the far right of the spectrum, and even then, there are many who have dropped out. These are tough guys and having made it a career, they have no options but a few will likely be honest enough to admit it's not as much fun as it used to be for them.

    I will get bashed for this post. I am still winning but burnt out and maybe the old enthusiasm will return but at the moment, I am uncertain.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Don't misunderstand, long term it only get's more difficult as the players options are always being reduced and the better you are the more difficult it will become.

    While for once I agree with most of what Z has posted in this thread, you should consider that too many new AP's learn to play technically but do not spend enough time developing a "casino" game to extend their longevity. Firing away with optimal betting is a sure fired shortcut to back offs and trespass.

    And all of this is usually done under a bankroll umbrella that is too small to effectively withstand the variance. Using tools like CVCX to determine a minimum optimal bankroll is simply a good place to start your game design, not the answer.

    Consider that longevity is more valuable than technical proficiency. There is an active thread with over 600 post and 19,000 views that is focused on a more difficult count that, even if correct (and he's not!), might squeeze out .2%. What an exercise in mental masturbation!

    By the time the new AP "figures it out", its too late..................
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  4. #4


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    I see many new AP's or wannabe AP's on this and other forums, practicing hard, attending boot camps and getting ready to start their careers. Most have success initially and really enjoy it but it's very hard for them to see what lies ahead. First the variance, then the heat as local casinos see them regularly, track their play. Most believe that the casino is very toperant, the pit and dealers are very very friendly and they have the casinos fooled until one day (a year or 4 later), they have noticed your record and then almost shockingly they are no longer friendly. Local places dry up. Almost nobody sees this.

    Then, they travel and win at tables but the expenses means really small wins. So, to lower expenses, sleep in car or cheap motels, eat greasy fast food. They are still ahead at the tables perhaps but it begins to be a grind.

    I went through all the above. I also learned my weaknesses. Now, technically I have a $70k bankroll and if I start playing a higher minimum games, play $50 to $500 spread (instead of a max bet of $200), I could still winning but I don't think I can handle it.

  5. #5
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    2 out of 7 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I agree 100% with what Stealth said. I believe the best use of complexity is not extra EV per round but extra EV by increasing longevity. You can do the same with a simpler system but you can't determine the cost of looking like you aren't counting as well as you can with a complicated system. My favorite complicated systems make you look stupid when you are actually being smart. Of course the developers of such systems don't share them publicly because they use them to make money. Once they become more obsolete they may share them.

  6. #6


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I believe the best use of complexity is not extra EV per round but extra EV by increasing longevity. You can do the same with a simpler system but you can't determine the cost of looking like you aren't counting as well as you can with a complicated system.
    If that don't beat all, you talking about longevity. Is everyone supposed to forget all about your prior history of always telling everyone about your long successfull stretch with very little negative variance? What do you think that did for card counting?

  7. #7


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    'My favorite complicated systems make you look stupid when you are actually being smart. Of course the developers of such systems don't share them publicly because they use them to make money. Once they become more obsolete they may share them. "

    You say you are here to help and then you keep your systems a secret.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    'My favorite complicated systems make you look stupid when you are actually being smart. Of course the developers of such systems don't share them publicly because they use them to make money. Once they become more obsolete they may share them. "

    You say you are here to help and then you keep your systems a secret.
    Damn right. Bosox would go nutz if I made anything public. Listen to him now with just one person doing things. I have helped many people develop their own systems.

    Look, I develop systems to make money in the casino. When they are not worth much anymore I may divulge them. But it still won't be on a public forum.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Damn right. Bosox would go nutz if I made anything public. Listen to him now with just one person doing things.
    Just look at that other thread with 653 posts. The same guy that started it must have mentioned well over 100 times he only plays the game for the Lucky Ladies side bet. Anyone who previously played that side bet or those players hoping to find it down the road can forget about it, as it will become extinct.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-11-2019 at 08:14 AM.

  10. #10


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    Thank you all! There are ball park 30 casinos within an hour of me (not bad). I noticed the house edge is around .5 in general for these games... what count is capable of overturning these odds? Also, for said count, what would the edge become?

    Thanks again APs.

  11. #11


    8 out of 8 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I wanted to put some thought into this reply. This is exactly me, less than 5 years AP.

    So here's my advice to the newbie just starting.

    1. Have a bankroll. When I started, my bankroll was my ATM card. I'd pull out 1K, and put it and the winnings back when I was finished. I thought this was a replinishable bankroll. And I won. I think most card counters had some good variance starting out, otherwise we would have tucked tail and ran. But I won. Almost always. And when I lost, it wasn't a lot.

    Then the unthinkable happened. I lost my entire "bankroll". So I hit the ATM, took out another $500. And lost. Then due to bank restrictions, I had to wait until the next day to withdraw more, so I was finished for the day.

    Did I learn? No, but I did have the bank remove the withdraw restriction...lol. It had to happen a second time before I decided not to sit at a table until I had saved $3K as a bankroll. (An arbitrary number, it was more than I ever lost so I figured it was good.)

    2. Play within your bankroll. With $3K, I thought I was good betting quarters. It worked, at double deck. (My rookie good variance was still going strong). You can't spread correctly on $25 6D with only $3K, so I only played DD or I red chipped it.

    3. If you are playing red chips or with a limited bankroll, you cannot afford cover. You cannot afford to play -EV rounds, so get used to wonging and /or white rabbiting. You also cannot afford to tip, so all the more reason to not camp a table.

    4. When you win, keep your hands off the bankroll. It all goes back / gets reinvested. At first, I covered expenses out of the home account, just to grow my bankroll. Pros do the opposite--they cover expenses AND pay their bills from their bankroll. But when you have a big win, there is no celebration dinner.

    5. Don't play rated. I was databased at a property spreading 1-3 green, rated. I thought because of my polite spread and excellent cover, it would never happen to me. Wrong. I burned my name for inconsequential stakes. If you absolutely can't live without a host fawning over you, pick one chain to play rated. Then don't play BJ there. Do anything else. Use that place as your base and then play BJ unrated elsewhere. Notice all the pros who will tell you NOT to play rated, and there's only one lone poster who advocates for it. Listen to the group consensus.

    6. Network. I was fortunate to partner with some excellent people who taught me the nuances of the game, and of casino comportment. Without them, I wouldn't have made it out of the gate.

    7. You are going to lose. You are going to lose so many hands in a row you're going to think the casino is cheating, the ASM is rigged, and God personally hates you. It is part of the game. You have to have the stomach to push out that fifth max bet, even though you lost the four before it. You have to have the humility to drop your ramp when you've been crushed. Ironically, after I got serious and really started practicing and growing a true bankroll (in other words, I was following my own advice) I had my worst loosing stretch to date. I thought I'd never hit 10K. I'd get close, then get hammered. I learned during this time period I did not have the internal fortitude to do this full time. For me, the perfect balance is a full time job and part time AP. Find your own work / life balance.

    8. Practice. Use whatever count your want, but do it flawlessly. Count down a deck before you play. If you get to a casino but the conditions are bad, don't play. Get back in your car, drive to a coffee shop, and practice for a few hours. Then go back and check. Which leads into

    9. Don't play shitty games. I don't care if you drove 6 hours to get there. If it's a crappy game, leave it be. Now, you can beat a crappy game with a huge spread, but if you're just starting you probably aren't bankrolled to take it on. Know what games you can play, and which ones you need to leave for someone else.

    10. And last, don't tell the world what you're doing. At first it is a rush to beat a casino. It's even a bigger rush to spot another counter. Leave it alone. Don't try to meet them. Don't show off at the table. If you join a table and realize another's counter is already there, leave. Play it tight.

    Hope this list helps someone. These are really the top 10 mistakes I made starting out. I'm sure there are more, but it's a good starting point for a newbie.

  12. #12


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    Nice post! Good thoughts and very accurately written. There are two spelling mistakes/typos. Kudos to the first person to identify them.

    Don

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Nice post! Good thoughts and very accurately written. There are two spelling mistakes/typos. Kudos to the first person to identify them.

    Don
    I caught the withdraw error the first time through. I didn't really look for the second one but it may be "had", however that could also just be a clunky sentence. Good post though!

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