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Thread: Relatively New Ap's (5yrs or less)

  1. #1


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    Relatively New Ap's (5yrs or less)

    With the way things are drying up for APs, I wonder what some of the newcomers have dealt with. If you've begun counting recently (within the last five years), your personal experience likely differs quite a bit from the senior members of the forum.

    Could you one, tell the troubles you've come upon and two, how you overcame them or eluded them, etc?

    Also, what changes have you noticed within your respective communities over the past few years? Obviously, senior members can help out with information pertaining to the recent changes in the game and their communities.

    Perhaps, this thread can weed out a few misconceptions and create gains for noobs like me!

    Thank you.

  2. #2


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I have been at it for about 5 years of part time recreational play (between 275-300 hours a year) and my conclusion is that unless you live in a place like Las Vegas or in close proximity of some 10+ casinos, it's not viable for the red chipper and low green chipper to be successful for a long career.

    Yeah, the math says we have an edge but math does not have travel expenses, math plays error free and bets optimally all the time. We cant. We make errors, get heat and can't play optimally all the time, camp out

    If you live in a place close to 5 or so local places, don't have travel expenses, you can get away for a while but eventually, they will catch you and back you off of take counter measures. If you have less than 2-3 local places, you will get backed off sooner. THen, you have to factor in more expenses, bigger bankroll, and such. Long trips away from home will catch up and burn you out. What is fun the first few years becomes less fun each year and then a grind.

    The pros here are on the far right of the spectrum, and even then, there are many who have dropped out. These are tough guys and having made it a career, they have no options but a few will likely be honest enough to admit it's not as much fun as it used to be for them.

    I will get bashed for this post. I am still winning but burnt out and maybe the old enthusiasm will return but at the moment, I am uncertain.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Don't misunderstand, long term it only get's more difficult as the players options are always being reduced and the better you are the more difficult it will become.

    While for once I agree with most of what Z has posted in this thread, you should consider that too many new AP's learn to play technically but do not spend enough time developing a "casino" game to extend their longevity. Firing away with optimal betting is a sure fired shortcut to back offs and trespass.

    And all of this is usually done under a bankroll umbrella that is too small to effectively withstand the variance. Using tools like CVCX to determine a minimum optimal bankroll is simply a good place to start your game design, not the answer.

    Consider that longevity is more valuable than technical proficiency. There is an active thread with over 600 post and 19,000 views that is focused on a more difficult count that, even if correct (and he's not!), might squeeze out .2%. What an exercise in mental masturbation!

    By the time the new AP "figures it out", its too late..................
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  4. #4


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    I see many new AP's or wannabe AP's on this and other forums, practicing hard, attending boot camps and getting ready to start their careers. Most have success initially and really enjoy it but it's very hard for them to see what lies ahead. First the variance, then the heat as local casinos see them regularly, track their play. Most believe that the casino is very toperant, the pit and dealers are very very friendly and they have the casinos fooled until one day (a year or 4 later), they have noticed your record and then almost shockingly they are no longer friendly. Local places dry up. Almost nobody sees this.

    Then, they travel and win at tables but the expenses means really small wins. So, to lower expenses, sleep in car or cheap motels, eat greasy fast food. They are still ahead at the tables perhaps but it begins to be a grind.

    I went through all the above. I also learned my weaknesses. Now, technically I have a $70k bankroll and if I start playing a higher minimum games, play $50 to $500 spread (instead of a max bet of $200), I could still winning but I don't think I can handle it.

  5. #5
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    2 out of 7 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I agree 100% with what Stealth said. I believe the best use of complexity is not extra EV per round but extra EV by increasing longevity. You can do the same with a simpler system but you can't determine the cost of looking like you aren't counting as well as you can with a complicated system. My favorite complicated systems make you look stupid when you are actually being smart. Of course the developers of such systems don't share them publicly because they use them to make money. Once they become more obsolete they may share them.

  6. #6


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I believe the best use of complexity is not extra EV per round but extra EV by increasing longevity. You can do the same with a simpler system but you can't determine the cost of looking like you aren't counting as well as you can with a complicated system.
    If that don't beat all, you talking about longevity. Is everyone supposed to forget all about your prior history of always telling everyone about your long successfull stretch with very little negative variance? What do you think that did for card counting?

  7. #7


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    'My favorite complicated systems make you look stupid when you are actually being smart. Of course the developers of such systems don't share them publicly because they use them to make money. Once they become more obsolete they may share them. "

    You say you are here to help and then you keep your systems a secret.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    'My favorite complicated systems make you look stupid when you are actually being smart. Of course the developers of such systems don't share them publicly because they use them to make money. Once they become more obsolete they may share them. "

    You say you are here to help and then you keep your systems a secret.
    Damn right. Bosox would go nutz if I made anything public. Listen to him now with just one person doing things. I have helped many people develop their own systems.

    Look, I develop systems to make money in the casino. When they are not worth much anymore I may divulge them. But it still won't be on a public forum.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Damn right. Bosox would go nutz if I made anything public. Listen to him now with just one person doing things.
    Just look at that other thread with 653 posts. The same guy that started it must have mentioned well over 100 times he only plays the game for the Lucky Ladies side bet. Anyone who previously played that side bet or those players hoping to find it down the road can forget about it, as it will become extinct.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-11-2019 at 09:14 AM.

  10. #10


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    Thank you all! There are ball park 30 casinos within an hour of me (not bad). I noticed the house edge is around .5 in general for these games... what count is capable of overturning these odds? Also, for said count, what would the edge become?

    Thanks again APs.

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